First off, hi becca
The female colchester sun bear was on contraceptives before the move into their new enclosure. Here is a decades old study that deals with the topic and as all of the studies to no conclusion (
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.556.2474&rep=rep1&type=pdf)
As to which sun bear possibly could breed, there are only the following bears (male) that have breed with their partners. Chica in Cologne, Johannes in Berlin, Myanmar in Usti and as Becca pointed out, Teddy in Madrid. Chica and Myanmar are wild born, Johannes and Teddy first generation zoo born bears.
The situation in the female population is actually no different. The breeding females are Bali in Cologne, Tina in Berlin, Barma in Usti, Anabelle in Madrid and Josefine in Münster.
With respect to each and every other sun bear in european zoos, I would not call them possibly breeding regardless of the individual bear being male or female. Some male bears (well to be fair, two I know of) have been tested for their fertility and one was ruled sterile (Frodo in Arnheim) and one is 'iffy' (Ernst/Adam in Jihlava). Three female bears have also been tested positively for breeding (Bunga and Bola in Arnheim and Aja in Jihlava).
I believe it is fair to say, until either Chester or Colchester start breeding (Belfast I guess will most likely not, due to the age of the female bear), regardless of the survival of the offspring, there currently is one breeding sun bear couple in a zoo in Europe and that would be Myanmar and Barma in Usti Nad Labem.
The transfer of a male bear from Edinbourgh to Arnheim seems to be one of the first reasonable decisions/ movements that has happened in the sun bear population in Europe in the last 10 years. The fact, that a sterile male bear (Frodo) will move to a zoo with a female bear (Josefine) that has bread already kind of counteracts that.
It is maddening to the n-th degree that the most social and breeding bear all over Europe (Johannes) is bound to stay in Berlin with his mother. He should be send to Arnheim, his son (Frodo) back to Berlin and one of the Edinbourgh guys should be send to Münster. That would make sense but alas.....
On the issue of breeding success. Newest studies indicate, that the earlier the bears are introduced (ideally as sub adults) the better the harmony. Which in many ways is supported by the breeding successes in the 70s and 80s in Berlin, Münster, Cologne and Basel.
Currently this seems not to be the basis for population planning in zoos, as way to many pairs are build well past their subadulthood.
For example, Indera (today in Belfast) was socialized with a young female bear (Charlotte) from Cologne in Sandwich, but the possible couple was not kept together after the first closing of the RSCC.
At this point - unless the new studbook-coordinator really engages in the betterment of the sun bear population in zoos, strategically move bears around, try different pairings, import more and younger pairs - the bears will disappear out of zoos within the next 10 to 15 years.