Sorry I know you didn't want to debate but I just wanted to give a little input on lifespan statistics with wild and captive killer whales.
There are lots of numbers AR groups like to throw around like max ages and comparing them to average lifespans which is disingenuous. Most of these wild max age estimates are made based on photo id projects and aren't always 100% correct. Max ages of 80 should be taken with a huge grain of salt. While indeed possible, it is also possible for a human to reach 120 years but people won't go off on a person's family if they only reach age 70 and die of natural causes.I can also think of at least two orcas over 50 living currently in human care.
Current data shows there is no difference in life expectancy of orcas in at least SeaWorld parks after calves reach 6 months. This last part is important. Cetaceans have high infant mortality rates. In human care, we have data and can see that calves early on have it rough. We do not have any data from wild populations to show their infant mortality rate is any different. Like I said lifespan data is mostly received through photo id projects. If a calf passes after birth and the mother wasn't identified in the months between photos, it's impossible for scientists to know if a calf was born or not. For this reason, data on calves is only taken after the 6 month mark. It is disingenuous to compare them without this in account.
I completely agree with you about your point on maximum ages, and I've definitely noticed it, too. However, if we are playing the average game, here's what we currently know about captive and wild killer whales. According to NOAA, wild whales live an average of 30 for males and 50 for females. I've personally done the math and gone through the National Marine Mammal Inventory Report (and Ceta Base because it's a godsend) to calculate the average age of deceased whales (since I can't just say the current whales are dead and throw them in, take this number with a grain of salt). I also excluded calves that didn't reach their first birthday to make sure it the criteria was as consistent as possible with the wild criteria. The outcome was an average of 15 years for females and 16 for males across the four parks (including SeaWorld Aurora's Kandu and excluding Loro Parque since there haven't been any deaths aside from a calf yet). It's not equivalent, but I should point out that it's steadily improving, with whales rarely if ever reaching their teens in the 70's, while whales generally died in their 20's during the 2000's. By the 2010's, most of the dead whales (with a few exceptions) had at least reached 20, rather than occasionally doing so.
Here's the problem with the equivalent data, though. I've mainly seen one particular study done by SeaWorld cited to confirm the equivalency, but I had a lot of issues with how that study was conducted. First of all, SeaWorld chose to remove all animals of "estimated age" (born before the 1972 research on the Southern residents began). This placed a cap on wild whales' ages at 41, which was already a massive blow to the lifespan study. I also had an issue with SeaWorld's decision to still include their own whales of estimated age (wild-captured) in the study, since the best we have is tooth-aging for the most part (and based on the 200 different life expectancy averages I get whenever I look up beluga life expectancy, that isn't exactly a precise science). Second of all, they chose the Southern residents. I understand that choice because it's the most well-studied population of wild orca, but it's also one of the most critically endangered. The population is essentially starving to death, so there's going to be a lot of outliers in that respect. Finally, SeaWorld decided to predict the lifespans of their living whales during the study. As a result, they predicted that Unna and Kayla would reach 40, while Kasatka would reach 50. That didn't work out so great. They predicted that all of their wild females would reach about 50 years of age, and so far Corky is the only whale they've ever had to do that, with Katina still almost 10 years away from that mark. For males, they predicted them to reach 30 as well, which all of their wild caught males at the time (Tilikum and Ulises) had already done. As for captive-bred animals, females were projected to reach 40, while males were projected to reach 25 (again, a lot of the males have already reached or are approaching that age). They then compared that to the ages of the endangered population, which has an average of 19 in males and 31 in females as a result of depleted food, and called it a win. I'm just not a fan of the way that study was conducted, but I think it fits pretty well with how a lot of studies are conducted recently, in which scientists are starting to get into the sad habit of manipulating variables to come up with their results, but not placing that in the title and therefore misleading those who just read the title and believe they've heard the full story.
You need to look at the differences between decades and the vast improvement over time. I see you like articles so here is one.
Comparisons of life-history parameters between free-ranging and captive killer whale ( Orcinus orca ) populations for application toward species management
Basically it looks at annual survivor rates (ASR) and other metrics of both SeaWorld orcas and two populations in the Pacific Northwest (Northern resident and Southern resident). There is a significant difference in the average calf survival rate to 2 years between the captive and wild populations (0.966 for SeaWorld calves and 0.799 for SR pop). Now you might say that this is because the SR population is highly endangered with many issues affecting their calf survival rate which is true. But if you look at the improved ASR for SeaWorld animals over time, there is a significant increase. Wild populations did have a higher ASR until 2000 where after there was no significant difference in the studied populations.
I personally don't like the use of ASR on orcas because of sample size. The Southern residents are believed to have had less than 90 individuals before captures, which means that if even one whale dies, the ASR is already less than 99%. That becomes even more dramatic at SeaWorld, where in the event that all 20 survive a year (which happened in years such as 2016 and 2018), their ASR is 100% and therefore most likely greater than a larger population which is more likely to lose an individual. However, if SeaWorld has a particularly bad year (such as 2010 or 2017) in which they suddenly lose several individuals, suddenly their ASR looks absolutely atrocious. Even if you average it out over an extended period of time, the population is still too small to reliably account for the constant dramatic fluctuations. I also think that the disregard for lifespan is not a great idea in orcas, given that most orcas which die outside of Washington are either calves or elderly.
Lots of issues with these "sea pens." An animal that has lived in a controlled environment its entire life with little changes in acidity, pollution, temperature, face to face human contact and reliance, and other factors could face a lot of issues if placed in a sea pen. It will be interesting if any of these issues happen when the National Aquarium moves their dolphins to one.
We have a little experience with sea pens already. Dolphins Plus Bayside held four dolphins which were born at Discovery Cove between 2014 and 2018 (Axl, Brigg, Hurlee, and Ige). They were sent to SeaWorld Orlando in 2018 (probably as a result of the red tide outbreak we had in Florida). Dolphin Research Center currently holds another individual born at SeaWorld Orlando in 1979, named Sandy. He's been there since 1991, so he's currently 40 years old, and he's spent 28 of those years in the sea pen (and survived numerous major hurricanes within that pen, which I would assume would create the biggest fluctuations in water quality). Over in California, the US Navy currently holds around 80 dolphins, including 4 born at SeaWorld San Diego and one born at SeaWorld Orlando (Kama, Sparky, Nitro, Charlie, and Tango). Unfortunately we have less information on welfare here because of the lack of transparency with the US Navy, however, other tank-bred dolphins have also been held there for shorter periods of time (Belle, Duncan, Bobby, and Deke). Only Bobby has died thus far.