This is how I see the breeding programme playing out:
Taronga Western Plains Zoo:
Taronga Western Plains Zoo plan to open an expanded cow/calf facility, which will feature an additional holding yard and large barn capable of holding the entire matriarchal herd indoors for an extended period.
They currently have five paddocks and three barns, with one paddock designated as a recovery paddock.
The logical move is to transfer in Pak Boon and Tang Mo from Taronga and transfer out Pathi Harn and Sabai to take their place, with the former breeding with Thong Dee and Anjalee prior to their departure.
This would leave four paddocks vacant (one recovery), which would allow them to retain a further three bulls. Birth intervals will likely remain large e.g. eight years given they’d have four viable cows and a fifth juvenile cow.
Werribee Open Range Zoo:
Werribee appear to have around seven or eight exhibits and holding yards from the map. The largest will be occupied by the matriarchal herd; and another three by Luk Chai, Man Jai and in all likelihood, Putra Mas upon his transfer from Perth.
Allowing for a recovery paddock, Werribee could be left with up to three available paddocks to allow for the expansion of the herd. It’s unknown what gender ratio the upcoming cohort (or future cohorts) will contain, but bearing in mind juvenile/adolescent bulls can cohabit with each other until at least their early teens, they could afford to breed at five year intervals initially.
It would be advantageous if opportunities arose to transfer out bachelor bulls to Monarto in 10-15 years time, which could see them continue with five year birth intervals. If an option within or outside the region (i.e. exports) fails to present itself, I see birth intervals extending to eight years.
Looking at it space wise, I actually think it might be more idealistic to send Pak Boon and Tang Mo to Werribee once the facilities over there open. Dubbo already have three founder cows (alongside young Kanlaya), and even with artificial intervals, the herd could grow very quickly over the coming decade with four reproductive cows by that time. Adding Pak Boon and Tang Mo to the mix at Werribee will give Werribee a fourth reproductive cow, and potentially a third founder cow (equalising them with Dubbo in a sense). Expanding the herd early on, will also increase their chances of holding a large herd, as going via succession could take decades to reach their goal (of 20+ elephants).
Breeding Pathi Harn with Thong Dee and Anjalee next makes sense. Gung could then breed with Porntip and then Thong Dee, Anjalee and Kanlaya during their next rotation. In a decades time, he could then potentially have six surviving calves (alongside grandchildren at Werribee), and so it’ll probably be best to retire him and replace him with one of the Sydney bulls.
Regarding Werribee’s paddocks, I think we’ll find the cows will have access to much more than just one (probably three or four which will differentiate in size, landscape ect.) I think Putra Mas will have his own paddock (assuming he’s sent to Werribee), and Luk Chai will share one with Man Jai. That’s assuming everything goes to plan, but we’ll just have to wait and see how everything unfolds.