Breeding Plans for Dubbo
I’d expect three births within the Dubbo herd in the next five years:
- Breeding from Anjalee is a priority. I’d expect her to conceive within the next 12 months.
- Breeding from Thong Dee is necessary by 2026 if they want to maintain her viability as a breeding cow. I’d expect her to produce the next calf in conjunction with Anjalee. This will allow them another decade to decide whether to continue breeding with her. Personally, I’m of the belief she’ll be retired after three calves. She’s already well represented through Luk Chai.
- Breeding from Porntip is necessary by 2028. They may opt to bring this forward to align with Anjalee and Thong Dee’s calves. This would avoid the issues that come with two year age gaps between calves in a herd and means Porntip could align with Kanlaya for a fourth calf (which would probably be her final calf).
In conclusion, I’d predict:
2025: Porntip, Thong Dee (then retire), Anjalee
2030: Porntip (then retire), Anjalee, Kanlaya
The new cow/calf facility will likely be up and running by 2025, but the above is likely the maximum breeding we’ll see - bearing in mind the two cows at Taronga will be rejoining the herd within this timeframe.
Thong Dee's an interesting one. I think the gender of her next calf will mainly influence a decision on whether she's allowed a fourth calf down the line. A female would be needed for succession, so if her next calf is a female, I think it would be a good idea to retire her from breeding (especially due to her increasing representation now at Melbourne through her eldest son, Luk Chai). If her next calf is a male, that may present more of a reason for Thong Dee being allowed to have a fourth calf (and hopefully a girl). Whilst we don't really want another bull from Thong Dee, keep in mind many facilities in the US would greatly appreciate the arrival of a young completely unrelated bull into their population.
That brings me to Sabai who probably won't be needed within our regional breeding program, ever. The best choice for him is to be sent to a facility in the US where he can breed over there. The US currently has a lot of elderly founders who'll pass within the next decade, so by that time, Sabai (as an unrelated 'founder' in essence over there) will be in high demand. I don't see him being retained in Australia as a surplus male, especially as the region dosen't have a designated bachelor facility in the time being, and likely won't still within five years time when Sabai will need to be moved to make space.
I think the sex of Porntip's next calf will also influence the decision on whether she'll breed again too. Another female will present a strong argument
not to breed her again. She'll have two daughters (enough for succession). We don't want to get to a point where Porntip may have three daughters, which won't be a
terrible thing, but is certainly inadvisable for a facility like Dubbo who have spatial limitations. More so, I think Pathi Harn has a big influence on Porntip's breeding future. If Pathi Harn is chosen to father the next cohort of calves to Thong Dee and Anjalee; Dubbo may not need to breed from Porntip more than a fourth time, as Porntip will have an increasing representation much like Thong Dee through Luk Chai currently at Melbourne.
There's also Pak Boon to consider, who may or may not still be apart of the breeding program. If she is still apart of the breeding program, it'd probably be important to AI her soon. She could then give birth in 2025, soon after her arrival to Dubbo, in conjunction with calves from Thong Dee and Anjalee.
So here's what I see occurring at Dubbo down the line:
2025 - calves from: Anjalee, Thong Dee, Pak Boon*
2029 - calves from: Porntip and Kanlaya
*if she's still apart of the breeding program
I don't think we can predict any further than the next calves for each of the above females, as the sex of the calves will really determine Thong Dee's and Porntip's breeding future. Only Pak Boon, Anjalee and Kanlaya will most likely breed again following these calves.