Asian Elephants in Europe 2023

[Pongo]

I am not sure. A quote from an article by the EAZA Elephant TAG:

"This effect is already very much apparent in the Asian elephant EEP and led to the decision to deliberately reduce birth rates by aiming for eight years as the first age of reproduction for females, a last age of reproduction of 25 years and an interbirth interval of seven years."

Source: EAZA Zooquaria #117

I guess this is the general rule with exceptions. Zoo Zurich reports on their website that Panang shall have offspring with Thai. I also have my doubts that this succeeds, but the general situation is that there are about 30 matrilines in zoos = 30 potential future breeders in Europe. Losing any of them will hurt in the future, so I can very well imagine that they do exceptions in situations, in which a cow is desperately needed to keep the line alive. Personally I think it would be better if Zurich sends the other matriline away though, given the recent past and the fact that the two groups don't get along with another...

 

[ZCChip]

There is no living calves between Panang and Farha so I am fairly sure they will attempt to breed Panang.

yes it has been 12 years but many females have had babies in long intervals and do just fine. It’s the herpes that is the issue!

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

I am not sure. A quote from an article by the EAZA Elephant TAG:

"This effect is already very much apparent in the Asian elephant EEP and led to the decision to deliberately reduce birth rates by aiming for eight years as the first age of reproduction for females, a last age of reproduction of 25 years and an interbirth interval of seven years."

Source: EAZA Zooquaria #117

This is...an insanely stupid rule. I understand that Europe is running out of space for bulls, but why is the solution not to accomodate going forward with funding rather than risking nuking the captive population by forcing females to stop having calves when they are still in their prime for reproduction?! Ugh, I hope they figure something more sustainable out soon. Its not like "reducing birth rates" is magically going to make their current bull population decrease...
I'm not super well versed on this (just learning about this new rule now!) so apologies if I sound ignorant, theres something about risk involved in this plan that leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

 

[ZCChip]

This is...an insanely stupid rule. I understand that Europe is running out of space for bulls, but why is the solution not to accomodate going forward with funding rather than risking nuking the captive population by forcing females to stop having calves when they are still in their prime for reproduction?! Ugh, I hope they figure something more sustainable out soon. Its not like "reducing birth rates" is magically going to make their current bull population decrease...
I'm not super well versed on this (just learning about this new rule now!) so apologies if I sound ignorant, theres something about risk involved in this plan that leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

I agree with you. It’s a stupid rule and really won’t address the issue. Look at Emmen. Their elephant population is going to die out under the rule with all of the bulls. They need to keep the females breeding and keep the female calves while finding homes for the bulls. USA or Australia or even the zoo in Israel would appreciate fresh genetics and now there are bachelor herds being formed in USA and Europe.

The new studbook manager is not that smart but again what do I know?

 

[lintworm]

The new studbook manager is not that smart but again what do I know?

Indeed, what do you know.

This reduced breeding is part of an overall strategy that includes encouraging/forcing zoos to create more space for bulls too. Elephants live long so the birth rates had to be controlled to not create a severe space problem (and the risk of a full breeding stop) on the medium term. From 1998-2018 the population increased with 2.5% per year, so something had to happen and the surplus of males is the big problem in that. In a way they arrive now at the same situation where the gorilla EEP has been for a long time, this is another long-lived species in which breeding is tightly controlled because of lack of space (for males in particular). It is not as if Australia and the US have room for all the surplus Europe is creating, though increased cooperation with the US is part of the strategy too.

I suggest you read the following paper (or not if you want to become just as not smart as the current EEP coordinators):
https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/izy.12233

 

[ZCChip]

Indeed, what do you know.

This reduced breeding is part of an overall strategy that includes encouraging/forcing zoos to create more space for bulls too. Elephants live long so the birth rates had to be controlled to not create a severe space problem (and the risk of a full breeding stop) on the medium term. From 1998-2018 the population increased with 2.5% per year, so something had to happen and the surplus of males is the big problem in that. In a way they arrive now at the same situation where the gorilla EEP has been for a long time, this is another long-lived species in which breeding is tightly controlled because of lack of space (for males in particular). It is not as if Australia and the US have room for all the surplus Europe is creating, though increased cooperation with the US is part of the strategy too.

I suggest you read the following paper (or not if you want to become just as not smart as the current EEP coordinators):
https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/izy.12233

I already am aware of the facts stated in the paper. But what about the zoos such as Emmen and now Panang and Farha with no living calves. Should they just stop reproducing because they didn’t have a female calf or other reasons? How can a zoo like Emmen be sustainable? There is only one Radza female that I am aware of at Cologne.

 

[lintworm]

I already am aware of the facts stated in the paper. But what about the zoos such as Emmen and now Panang and Farha with no living calves. Should they just stop reproducing because they didn’t have a female calf or other reasons? How can a zoo like Emmen be sustainable? There is only one Radza female that I am aware of at Cologne.

Then you have even less reason to be so disrespectful to people who do the real hard work.

If you really think they won't allow any breeding from Farha and Panang you are confusing the method with the goal.

In the case of Emmen continuing breeding gives absolutely no guarantee for female calves, more of a guarantee of even more males. It must be a headache for Emmen and the EEP too, but it is statistically impossible to produce so many males if the chances should be 50/50. Which means there must be something with the animals or the husbandry that makes the birth of males so much more likely. If they would know, they would have fixed it by now though....

 

[Yassa]

First, reducing birth rates is absolutely necessary unless you want to euthanize surplus bull calves. And I am pretty sure no one wants that. Reducing birth rates does of course not help with placing the bulls we already have, but each bull calf born increases the problem! European zoos did a lot to create more space for bulls in the last 2 decades, though.

However, I agree that it is very important to allow a level of reproduction that secures the exisiting matrilines, and the current number of Asian elepant births in Europe (just 4-5 a year) may be too low. But my understanding is that the limit of 3 calves per female is really only a general rule and that exeptions are possible, for example whena family had only male calves (like Emmen). And I am very sure this rule only applies if the calves survive. Panang and Farha have no surviving offspring and are surely allowed to breed again, hopefully with more sucess in the future.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

Then you have even less reason to be so disrespectful to people who do the real hard work.

If you really think they won't allow any breeding from Farha and Panang you are confusing the method with the goal.

In the case of Emmen continuing breeding gives absolutely no guarantee for female calves, more of a guarantee of even more males. It must be a headache for Emmen and the EEP too, but it is statistically impossible to produce so many males if the chances should be 50/50. Which means there must be something with the animals or the husbandry that makes the birth of males so much more likely. If they would know, they would have fixed it by now though....

Its just an incredibly unfortunate situation. I understand the INTENT and obviously they wouldn't do this lightly but its still sad knowing so many breeding facilities will suffer from this and so many valuable animals will not have their genetics utilized. For strong male-producing facilities especially this must be a tough blow.

I know of several US facilities that would strongly benefit from some actually fresh European genetics (the Motek/Warda line imports do...not count imo) but imports take a lot of time, money and management so its another really difficult thing to try and commit to increasing. The US isn't exactly overflowing with bachelor holding either. Isn't Denver the only one with a sizable commitment to keeping a herd of males? But all the same some serious good could come from "swapping" some of NA's young bulls with Europe's. Half of NA's young bachelor stock have very little genetic value at all, and several people have been pointing out for years the value of Emmen's bulls could bring if they were transferred.

Its at least good to know there are at least exceptions in cases like with Panang and her family. Honestly it is obvious that not all facilities should be created equal in this rule. For a heavily male producing facilituly like Emmen, breeding SHOULD be curbed, but for any with a more female producing ratio, the EEP should be more inclined to offer an exception.

 

[ZCChip]

Then you have even less reason to be so disrespectful to people who do the real hard work.

If you really think they won't allow any breeding from Farha and Panang you are confusing the method with the goal.

In the case of Emmen continuing breeding gives absolutely no guarantee for female calves, more of a guarantee of even more males. It must be a headache for Emmen and the EEP too, but it is statistically impossible to produce so many males if the chances should be 50/50. Which means there must be something with the animals or the husbandry that makes the birth of males so much more likely. If they would know, they would have fixed it by now though....

It’s the father’s semen that determines the sex of the offspring. Not the environment or nutrition.

 

[Yassa]

Nutrition can absolutely have an effect- there are species where obese females have more male offspring. However, NOTHING can explain the sheer number of male calves in Emmen, sired by 4 different bulls now…. And there is no way to predict what gender the next calves will have. I tend to believe its simply bad luck and that the next calves will be female!

 

[Pongo]

I agree with you. It’s a stupid rule and really won’t address the issue. Look at Emmen. Their elephant population is going to die out under the rule with all of the bulls. They need to keep the females breeding and keep the female calves while finding homes for the bulls. USA or Australia or even the zoo in Israel would appreciate fresh genetics and now there are bachelor herds being formed in USA and Europe.

The new studbook manager is not that smart but again what do I know?

It does address the issue. There is a huge problem of more than 85 singular cows aged over 25 years in the EEP. They block enormous space, but you can't get rid off them - those are the sins of the past. Same goes with all the young bulls, which is a temporary problem in my opinion since those who are keeping old cows right now will be future holders of young bulls (or stop keeping elephants). So you need to keep your focus on creating or maintaining matrilinies.

Creating matrilines only makes sense with singular cows of a young age. Panang in Munich did not fulfill this criteria, it makes more sense to create lines with younger cows (such as Marlar in Cologne, Kungrao or Maha Kumari in Copenhagen, or Janita in Prague). Yet Panang in Zurich is now part of a matriline and breeding with her can be part of a solution to maintain this line. It definitely makes sense to take a look at every matriline individually but the solution cannot be to simply keep on breeding without having space for the offspring.

Concerning Emmen I am pretty sure that Ma Ya Yee and Swe Zin will get another shot at creating female offspring.

yes it has been 12 years but many females have had babies in long intervals and do just fine. It’s the herpes that is the issue!

Herpes definitely is the issue in Zurich, this is why I think simply breeding in this constellation will not be the solution. The danger that herpes kills the next offspring in Zurich again is very high if no other changes are done. I am not saying that sending the other matriline away is THE solution to the problem, but it would cause less stress for the remaining line and at least reduce the risk.

 

[Perseus6]

I largely agree whats being stated but I do have to add something. We have to realize we can't have everything. We can't breed more and export surplus, space more matrilines and house all bulls in optimal enclosures.
We either have to accept potential culling of the population, or reduce breeding.
We can't easily export, since it takes time and is relatively expensive (not just transport and fees also salary of people transversing bureaucracy), and expend current facilities to boost animal welfare or increase holders. Sadly you have to make choices. People don't always understand the Asian elephant EEP I don't always understand it either however I do think it's one of the best managed EEP's out there. So I have to say the Elephant keeping will not be optimal for decades since facilities like Antwerp will have to hold the surplus males for a while. And if the old cows at zoos die not all of those facilities will invest in keeping elephants in the collection. If they do I think it will lead to more comparable facilities that are criticized.
I hope I didn't offend anyone, I just wanted to state this. Because as outsiders it's often easy to come up with a solution but it comes down to many things.

 

[lintworm]

I tend to believe its simply bad luck and that the next calves will be female!

If the expected sex ratio were 50/50 the chance of the number of male calves being born at Emmen to be so high is just bad luck is 0.001% (1 in a million). Even when the chance of a male would be 75% the chance of the current situation being bad luck is still only 4.4%, which means below the standard used significance threshold of 5%. So while Emmen is probably extraordinarily unlucky, it is statistically extremely unlikely it is just down to bad luck, so there must be something else.

 

[Perseus6]

If the expected sex ratio were 50/50 the chance of the number of male calves being born at Emmen to be so high is just bad luck is 0.001% (1 in a million). Even when the chance of a male would be 75% the chance of the current situation being bad luck is still only 4.4%, which means below the standard used significance threshold of 5%. So while Emmen is probably extraordinarily unlucky, it is statistically extremely unlikely it is just down to bad luck, so there must be something else.

Just remember correlation doesn't mean causation as well as the chance for a type 1 + 2 error is 25%. So even if you do your statistical analysis well you're only right about 75% of the time.
I'm not saying there isn't anything that contributes. But personally I think it's luck instead of anything. Then again in pygmy hippos there was a factor that contributed to the sex difference. So time will tell.

 

[john]

If the expected sex ratio were 50/50 the chance of the number of male calves being born at Emmen to be so high is just bad luck is 0.001% (1 in a million). Even when the chance of a male would be 75% the chance of the current situation being bad luck is still only 4.4%, which means below the standard used significance threshold of 5%. So while Emmen is probably extraordinarily unlucky, it is statistically extremely unlikely it is just down to bad luck, so there must be something else.

Besides that numbers of 50/50, if that all is a right consideration, and the bad luck of 4.4% is the fact in some sense it are still low numbers with which we do count. It is at Emmen not the fact of numbers in thousands, etc.
My question is what is the width of that curve of probability towards a 50/50? And how thus looks at other institutions.
Besides that is the fact that the three cows are matrilinean related.
Besides that why should a species for which grandmother, mother, daughter lines are so important invest in a ratio of 50/50. (is it all gambling?? of is there more selection as we do know?)
Besides that, how does that picture looks by other species for which that matrilinean linage is the backbone of society?
Besides that the other varations of what kind of browsers, etc, etc.

 

[john]

Just remember correlation doesn't mean causation as well as the chance for a type 1 + 2 error is 25%. So even if you do your statistical analysis well you're only right about 75% of the time.
I'm not saying there isn't anything that contributes. But personally I think it's luck instead of anything. Then again in pygmy hippos there was a factor that contributed to the sex difference. So time will tell.

Oh, interesting Perseus. What is that factor contributing towards that sex ratio in pygmee hippos? It seems I missed something.

 

[lintworm]

Just remember correlation doesn't mean causation as well as the chance for a type 1 + 2 error is 25%. So even if you do your statistical analysis well you're only right about 75% of the time.
I'm not saying there isn't anything that contributes. But personally I think it's luck instead of anything. Then again in pygmy hippos there was a factor that contributed to the sex difference. So time will tell.

I don't think you understand what you are talking about. Calculating the chance that so many elephant calves are male can be done with a binomial distribution (there are only 2 options: male/female). The chance that so many males are born if you would expect the sex ratio to be 50/50 (a reasonable assumption) is 1 in a million. That has nothing to do with correlation or causation, just simple probability.

I advise everyone who believes it is just luck to buy a lot of lottery tickets.

That 1 in a million probability can mean 3 things:
- Emmen is that 1 in a million place. There are also people who win lotteries.
- The 50/50 probability for Asian elephants is wrong from the outset. When looking at elephants born in European overall, I don't think there is a big male bias, though I don't have the numbers. Even if there would be a 75% chance to get a male, the chance you get so many males is only 4.4%.
- Given that the rest of European zoos doesn't see such a big male bias, something special is happening in Emmen that results in a large skew of male calves being born.

Besides that numbers of 50/50, if that all is a right consideration, and the bad luck of 4.4% is the fact in some sense it are still low numbers with which we do count. It is at Emmen not the fact of numbers in thousands, etc.

That would be the bad luck if we expect a 75% chance of a male calf being born, but I don't see such a big bias in the rest of Europe. That was just an example to show how extreme the skew in sex ratio in Emmen is and how small the chance it is that that is just bad luck. If anyone has an overview of how many Asian elephant calves were born in Europe and their sex ratio (excluding Emmen) since 1990 that would be welcome to see the true sex ratio. Going from a 50/50 distribution the chance is 1 in a million.

The pygmy hippo research can be found here:

Male pygmy hippopotamus influence offspring sex ratio | Nature Communications

Male pygmy hippos do adjust the number of X and Y carrying spermatozoa to influence the sex of the offspring.

 

[MennoPebesma]

At Copenhagen Zoo, 16-year-old Kumari is pregnant. She is due sometime between early January and late March. Father of the calf is Fahim.

Source: Facebook Zoologisk Have

 

[PossumRoach]

I know that Turkey technically isn’t a prt of Europe, but here it is listed under Europe and the news I am about to bring regards to the transfer of an individual from an EAZA zoo so I think it is somewhat relevant to this thread:

Izmir Wildlife Park will be sending away their middle calf Deniz (9 years ild) to Gaziantep to accompany up with male Gabi. The announcement from the Izmir Municipality (which owns and manages the zoo) does not refer anything about EAZA or a studbook.