Dallas has a pregnant female currently? I don't recall an announcement.
100%. I think we honestly are doing pretty decent with the number of breeding holders and holders in general. We have to keep in mind that elephant breeding is a global effort, and that the US isn't operating completely alone in their program. Any current facilities with large, growing herds and well-made facilities are incredibly unlikely to phase out, and we will likely see a few current geriatric animal holders elect to rennovate and hold breeding herds like Tulsa and Cincinnati.
Anytime a case regarding Happy has made it to court, the law has sided with the zoo. Despite unideal living situations, it's evident that Happy is too old and has had too much of a complicated social life to ever make it ethical to shove her into a completely new situation. If Bronx would elect to build an entire new complex, then I'm sure the general public and NY law would welcome it with open arms. It would indeed be a complicated project, but I have little doubt that Bronx would make a fabulous exhibit.
The last time a law banning Elephants in captivity was passed in the US was 20 years ago. Not saying it will never happen again, but if those sentiments were shared by all lawmakers then we've seen multiple opportunities for similar bans to come up. US Lawmakers tend to be fairly fond of their local zoos, and regard ARAs as nuisances like most of us do. San Francisco feels like a unique case since iirc it's not a very well regarded zoo in the first place. Especially not 20 years ago with hideously outdated elephant standards in place at the time.