Australian Asian Elephant Population 2025

It would be much better if the region operated cohesively rather than as individual facilities - so in this case Werribee should be willing to take on Sabai for the better of the program!

From what I understand, Sydney are keen to move one or both of their bulls out eventually when they're desired by the regional breeding program. Considering their representation, I'd be surprised if we see both moved out (and to two different facilities), but it's possible that if they're still close, they could both be transferred to Werribee together with a pair of Werribee's bulls going to Sydney.
Seeing that there are only two breeding herds currently in the country (and one possible in the future) one would believe that they were working together cohesively with both herds are dependent upon the other in the long term, I really believe a rethink in what is happening with the Taronga/Dubbo herd is needed for the best option moving forwards from here as what's happening currently could be regretted at a later date
 
Seeing that there are only two breeding herds currently in the country (and one possible in the future) one would believe that they were working together cohesively with both herds are dependent upon the other in the long term, I really believe a rethink in what is happening with the Taronga/Dubbo herd is needed for the best option moving forwards from here as what's happening currently could be regretted at a later date

There’s definitely a degree of cooperation, but partly due to the need to prioritise cohesion within their own herds (and work with the capacity of their facility), we’ve seen zoos putting their own interests first (which I intend as an observation, not a criticism). One example is Dubbo accepting Anjalee from Auckland Zoo, but not Burma.

Monarto presented a prime opportunity for a regional shake up. Personally I would have sent Putra Mas to Monarto; along with Pak Boon, Thong Dee and Tang Mo. This would have given them three compatible females, two of which are viable breeders. This would have freed up Dubbo to continue breeding from Porntip and Anjalee.
 
I agree. It would have been so much better if Australia Zoo had acquired Indian/Sri Lankan elephants rather than Sumatran elephants; and if Taronga had sent Sydney Zoo bulls elephants. At a minimum, they could have transferred over Pathi Harn, with Sabai then joining him in a few years.

Ultimately, I feel like a lot will rest on Putra Mas’ success as a natural breeder at Monarto. If he’s incapable of mounting their cows, a decision will need to be made whether to go the AI route (which I think is the most likely); or whether to transfer over either Pathi Harn or a Dublin bull.
The longer that Australia zoo goes without acquiring a bull the more convinced that they really had little any intention of importing a bull, Really if a bull was wanted they could of imported 3 cows and 1 bull but they may of only intended to have elephants there as a tourist attraction. It's a shame that they are not part of the regional breeding program they have a lot of room and a massive wooded area to cope with having a large herd!
 
The longer that Australia zoo goes without acquiring a bull the more convinced that they really had little any intention of importing a bull, Really if a bull was wanted they could of imported 3 cows and 1 bull but they may of only intended to have elephants there as a tourist attraction. It's a shame that they are not part of the regional breeding program they have a lot of room and a massive wooded area to cope with having a large herd!

I agree it’s unlikely the import of a bull will ever eventuate, which is a shame as two of the cows are now in their 20’s; and a decade from now and they’ll be pushing the limits of even breeding from the youngest cow.

From memory, the initial reason given was that they needed time to build bull facilities, which is fair enough; but it’s been six years now. Had they proceeded with initial plans to import two bulls (presumably unrelated), they could have founded a thriving herd - albeit independent of the ZAA breeding programme for Indian/Sri Lankan elephants.
 
My personal opinion is that both elephants and gorillas in the region have suffered from the practical reality that the birth of female offspring is highly desired for the breeding program, whereas there is limited capacity and breeding application for the majority of male offspring.

Every time a breeding recommendation is given, the dice is rolled. If somehow 75% female offspring could be guaranteed, then there would be more breeding recommendations - however this is not how biology works (without significant medical intervention, at least) and both species have experienced somewhat of a male bias. Thong Dee, the elephant, and Mbeli, the gorilla, would have benefitted from female offspring, although producing a third son from either of them would be difficult to care for going into the future.
 
My personal opinion is that both elephants and gorillas in the region have suffered from the practical reality that the birth of female offspring is highly desired for the breeding program, whereas there is limited capacity and breeding application for the majority of male offspring.

Every time a breeding recommendation is given, the dice is rolled. If somehow 75% female offspring could be guaranteed, then there would be more breeding recommendations - however this is not how biology works (without significant medical intervention, at least) and both species have experienced somewhat of a male bias. Thong Dee, the elephant, and Mbeli, the gorilla, would have benefitted from female offspring, although producing a third son from either of them would be difficult to care for going into the future.

I agree the programme mirrors gorillas in that the breeding of both species within a global captive setting was once considering a rarity (going back decades), with every calf or infant of immeasurable value to the breeding programme. Australasia lagged behind North American and Europe in breeding both species, but in the 1990’s (gorillas) and 2000’s (elephants) suddenly caught up. Unfortunately due to said lag, demand globally is low for either, with Europe even experiencing a surplus of females of both species.

The slight benefit with elephants is that pairings can readily be made with different males at a facility. Thong Dee for example could be mated with Pathi Harn at a moment’s notice, which would avoid running the risk of a third son from the Gung/Thong Dee line.
 
I agree the programme mirrors gorillas in that the breeding of both species within a global captive setting was once considering a rarity (going back decades), with every calf or infant of immeasurable value to the breeding programme. Australasia lagged behind North American and Europe in breeding both species, but in the 1990’s (gorillas) and 2000’s (elephants) suddenly caught up. Unfortunately due to said lag, demand globally is low for either, with Europe even experiencing a surplus of females of both species.

The slight benefit with elephants is that pairings can readily be made with different males at a facility. Thong Dee for example could be mated with Pathi Harn at a moment’s notice, which would avoid running the risk of a third son from the Gung/Thong Dee line.
A surplus of female gorillas in Europe that never seem to find there way to Australia where they are really needed
 
I agree. It would have been so much better if Australia Zoo had acquired Indian/Sri Lankan elephants rather than Sumatran elephants; and if Taronga had sent Sydney Zoo bulls elephants. At a minimum, they could have transferred over Pathi Harn, with Sabai then joining him in a few years.

Ultimately, I feel like a lot will rest on Putra Mas’ success as a natural breeder at Monarto. If he’s incapable of mounting their cows, a decision will need to be made whether to go the AI route (which I think is the most likely); or whether to transfer over either Pathi Harn or a Dublin bull.
I wonder whether the fact Pak Boon has never been AI'd before (to my knowledge), will have an impact on whether Monarto decides to undertake that in the event Putra Mas can't naturally mate her. In saying that, her time is running short so AI may be the best option in that case rather than waiting to acquire another bull.

Putra Mas also only has one surviving offspring; Kanlaya, who's still young and not out of the EEHV danger zone so it might be deemed important to secure additional offspring from Putra Mas rather than switching to another bull.
 
I wonder whether the fact Pak Boon has never been AI'd before (to my knowledge), will have an impact on whether Monarto decides to undertake that in the event Putra Mas can't naturally mate her. In saying that, her time is running short so AI may be the best option in that case rather than waiting to acquire another bull.

Putra Mas also only has one surviving offspring; Kanlaya, who's still young and not out of the EEHV danger zone so it might be deemed important to secure additional offspring from Putra Mas rather than switching to another bull.

I agree that getting an additional calf/calves from Putra Mas should be a priority. He’s a wild born founder and within the context of the global captive population, is one of the most genetically valuable bulls in the world.

I’m inclined to believe Pak Boon has never undergone AI attempts. Porntip was the priority to get pregnant and Gung succeeded in mating with Pak Boon shortly after. From there, there was no need to undertake AI, with Gung remaining on site until Jai Dee was conceived and then Taronga apparently content to hold a non-breeding herd for the last five years. The original plan was for Pak Boon/Tang Mo to go to Dubbo, so I expect they were reluctant to breed from Pak Boon again knowing the capacity of Dubbo.
 
Trail of the Elephants Documentary - Part 2

Part 2 is now up:

Another fantastic episode!

It’s really inspiring to hear about the Zoos Victoria elephant team’s vigilance in testing for EEHV, especially considering the three calves are now well and truly into the high risk years. As we all know, early detection is key and having a testing lab on site to provide a same day turnaround time for results will greatly improve the chances of fighting any clinical cases of EEHV that present. This article goes into more detail about the lab at Werribee (the turnaround time for EEHV testing is six hours):

Melbourne’s elephants test for deadly disease before big move to Werribee - ABC News


Aiyara is such a charismatic young calf. Her confidence is approaching all elephants in the herd was clear on my visit when she was 12 months old. I can only imagine how much her confidence has grown since then. Dokkoon allowing her the freedom to explore has surely contributed; but staff have reported that from day one, she’s being especially precocious compared to other calves. I look forward to watching all three calves mature into majestic adulthood, but I’m especially excited for what the future holds for Kati.

In the doco, Roi-Yim was noted to be approaching the point he’ll overtake the female calves in size and recent footage indicate he’s now reached that point. It’ll be interesting to see how this impacts upon his interactions with his peers, presumably boosting his confidence as he gains the advantage of size.
 
Another fantastic episode!

It’s really inspiring to hear about the Zoos Victoria elephant team’s vigilance in testing for EEHV, especially considering the three calves are now well and truly into the high risk years. As we all know, early detection is key and having a testing lab on site to provide a same day turnaround time for results will greatly improve the chances of fighting any clinical cases of EEHV that present. This article goes into more detail about the lab at Werribee (the turnaround time for EEHV testing is six hours):

Melbourne’s elephants test for deadly disease before big move to Werribee - ABC News


Aiyara is such a charismatic young calf. Her confidence is approaching all elephants in the herd was clear on my visit when she was 12 months old. I can only imagine how much her confidence has grown since then. Dokkoon allowing her the freedom to explore has surely contributed; but staff have reported that from day one, she’s being especially precocious compared to other calves. I look forward to watching all three calves mature into majestic adulthood, but I’m especially excited for what the future holds for Kati.

In the doco, Roi-Yim was noted to be approaching the point he’ll overtake the female calves in size and recent footage indicate he’s now reached that point. It’ll be interesting to see how this impacts upon his interactions with his peers, presumably boosting his confidence as he gains the advantage of size.
I expect now that the Werribee herd has one of the best elephant complex/exhibits in the world and a first class care team the herd can only go from strength to strength, Having a nice number of reproductive cows breeding on a regular basis will only strengthen this herd into the future.
One of the main reasons that the Rockton herd in Canada has thrived was not only due to the excellent care but importantly a high number of females born to the herd. Luckily for the Werribee herd it had two females out of the last cohort of calfs which Boyds well for its future.
Management got it all right from the start I hope that the Dubbo herd does not fall to far behind!
 
I expect now that the Werribee herd has one of the best elephant complex/exhibits in the world and a first class care team the herd can only go from strength to strength, Having a nice number of reproductive cows breeding on a regular basis will only strengthen this herd into the future.
One of the main reasons that the Rockton herd in Canada has thrived was not only due to the excellent care but importantly a high number of females born to the herd. Luckily for the Werribee herd it had two females out of the last cohort of calfs which Boyds well for its future.
Management got it all right from the start I hope that the Dubbo herd does not fall to far behind!

It’ll be fascinating to follow the progress of the Werribee herd over the coming decades. Succession planning will be undertaken every five years and with three viable adult cows (and two juvenile cows), I’d expect capacity rather than herd numbers to limit the output of the herd. For example, 32 year old Dokkoon could have a new calf every three years into her 40’s or 50’s; but it wouldn’t surprise me if her fourth calf was also her final calf so as to allow the younger cows coming through a chance to breed.

There’s countless possibilities for succession planning, but I could imagine something along the lines of the following:

2028: Dokkoon (final calf), Num-Oi and Mali

2033: Num-Oi (final calf) and Mali
2034: Aiyara and Kati

2039: Mali (final calf), Aiyara and Kati
2040: Females from the 2028 cohort

The next cohort (born circa 2028) would ideally be synchronised; while they may choose to stagger the second and third cohort (if only by 12 months) to compound the learning of the maternal process by the first time mothers via observation in the months/year leading up to their own first birth.
 
It’ll be fascinating to follow the progress of the Werribee herd over the coming decades. Succession planning will be undertaken every five years and with three viable adult cows (and two juvenile cows), I’d expect capacity rather than herd numbers to limit the output of the herd. For example, 32 year old Dokkoon could have a new calf every three years into her 40’s or 50’s; but it wouldn’t surprise me if her fourth calf was also her final calf so as to allow the younger cows coming through a chance to breed.

There’s countless possibilities for succession planning, but I could imagine something along the lines of the following:

2028: Dokkoon (final calf), Num-Oi and Mali

2033: Num-Oi (final calf) and Mali
2034: Aiyara and Kati

2039: Mali (final calf), Aiyara and Kati
2040: Females from the 2028 cohort

The next cohort (born circa 2028) would ideally be synchronised; while they may choose to stagger the second and third cohort (if only by 12 months) to compound the learning of the maternal process by the first time mothers via observation in the months/year leading up to their own first birth.
I don't believe over population is going to be any issue for quite some time to come but at some time in the future two cows could be transferred to Monarto and give them a rock solid start.
If I could change just one thing it would be to AI one of the current cows from the Perth bull they really should try and get at least one calf from him while they can.
 
I don't believe over population is going to be any issue for quite some time to come but at some time in the future two cows could be transferred to Monarto and give them a rock solid start.
If I could change just one thing it would be to AI one of the current cows from the Perth bull they really should try and get at least one calf from him while they can.

While I hope natural breeding (or if that fails, AI) at Monarto is successful, it’s absolutely worthwhile to have a contingency plan in mind. That could be splitting the Werribee herd two to three decades down the line, with a small family group (even just a mother and daughter going to Monarto) once some of their cows have passed.

If the Werribee herd were to be split in the future, I’d favour it being from Dokkoon’s line (or whatever line had more females) for the sake of maintaining two female lines in Werribee’s herd; though unforeseen conflicts may arise down the line (as have occurred overseas in unrelated matrilines that remained cohesive until they grew in number) may necessitate a split of Dokkoon and Num-Oi’s family groups. It seems unlikely given the positive social interactions seen in Werribee’s herd at present, but something to be aware of nonetheless.
 
While I hope natural breeding (or if that fails, AI) at Monarto is successful, it’s absolutely worthwhile to have a contingency plan in mind. That could be splitting the Werribee herd two to three decades down the line, with a small family group (even just a mother and daughter going to Monarto) once some of their cows have passed.

If the Werribee herd were to be split in the future, I’d favour it being from Dokkoon’s line (or whatever line had more females) for the sake of maintaining two female lines in Werribee’s herd; though unforeseen conflicts may arise down the line (as have occurred overseas in unrelated matrilines that remained cohesive until they grew in number) may necessitate a split of Dokkoon and Num-Oi’s family groups. It seems unlikely given the positive social interactions seen in Werribee’s herd at present, but something to be aware of nonetheless.
I would be surprised if the Perth bull did a natural mating but I hope it works out for them. Dublin zoo sent two adult cows both with calfs to a zoo in the USA a year or so ago so yes sending a small group is a good idea!
 
I would be surprised if the Perth bull did a natural mating but I hope it works out for them. Dublin zoo sent two adult cows both with calfs to a zoo in the USA a year or so ago so yes sending a small group is a good idea!

Yes, unfortunately it’s hard to say whether Putra Mas (an unproven bull) will be successful. Accounts of his mating attempts at Perth detailed him becoming frustrated by Permai’s refusal to mate. My main hope here is that pairing him with Pak Boon (an experienced natural breeder) will stand a bull lacking in experience the best chance of mating successfully.

While acknowledging elephants have individual preferences, I’d go as far to say if Putra Mas can’t mount Pak Boon successfully, it doesn’t bode well for his chances with other cows.

Another possibility is splitting the Dubbo herd long term. It’s hard to envisage now with a single juvenile cow representing succession of the herd, but a string of female births over the next 20 years (from Anjalee and Kanlaya) could see them placed to split the herd between Porntip and Anjalee’s lines.
 
Yes, unfortunately it’s hard to say whether Putra Mas (an unproven bull) will be successful. Accounts of his mating attempts at Perth detailed him becoming frustrated by Permai’s refusal to mate. My main hope here is that pairing him with Pak Boon (an experienced natural breeder) will stand a bull lacking in experience the best chance of mating successfully.

While acknowledging elephants have individual preferences, I’d go as far to say if Putra Mas can’t mount Pak Boon successfully, it doesn’t bode well for his chances with other cows.

Another possibility is splitting the Dubbo herd long term. It’s hard to envisage now with a single juvenile cow representing succession of the herd, but a string of female births over the next 20 years (from Anjalee and Kanlaya) could see them placed to split the herd between Porntip and Anjalee’s lines.
Because of the limited number of mature bulls and limited number of bloodlines I believe at this time AI still has a place in our zoos until things can stabilise in the future. I feel for the elephant team at Dubbo having to work with less than an ideal situation and lack of ideal conditions.
 
It’ll be fascinating to follow the progress of the Werribee herd over the coming decades. Succession planning will be undertaken every five years and with three viable adult cows (and two juvenile cows), I’d expect capacity rather than herd numbers to limit the output of the herd. For example, 32 year old Dokkoon could have a new calf every three years into her 40’s or 50’s; but it wouldn’t surprise me if her fourth calf was also her final calf so as to allow the younger cows coming through a chance to breed.

There’s countless possibilities for succession planning, but I could imagine something along the lines of the following:

2028: Dokkoon (final calf), Num-Oi and Mali

2033: Num-Oi (final calf) and Mali
2034: Aiyara and Kati

2039: Mali (final calf), Aiyara and Kati
2040: Females from the 2028 cohort

The next cohort (born circa 2028) would ideally be synchronised; while they may choose to stagger the second and third cohort (if only by 12 months) to compound the learning of the maternal process by the first time mothers via observation in the months/year leading up to their own first birth.
The capacity of the complex is around 20 to 25 elephants give or take, with this accounting for bulls too. With that in mind, I do think we could expect to see the goal to be for the herd numbers to double within the next fifteen years (until 2040). This can easily be achieved via the ten calves you mention above (which accounting for the eventual passing of Mek Kapah at least), should eventually give them a herd numbering in the late teens.

The 2028 cohort is also all pretty much confirmed - all three current mothers will breed again. I'm hoping Dokkoon will also be given the chance to have a fourth calf being a valuable founder, but I do understand why she may not due to her age and current representation.
 
The capacity of the complex is around 20 to 25 elephants give or take, with this accounting for bulls too. With that in mind, I do think we could expect to see the goal to be for the herd numbers to double within the next fifteen years (until 2040). This can easily be achieved via the ten calves you mention above (which accounting for the eventual passing of Mek Kapah at least), should eventually give them a herd numbering in the late teens.

The 2028 cohort is also all pretty much confirmed - all three current mothers will breed again. I'm hoping Dokkoon will also be given the chance to have a fourth calf being a valuable founder, but I do understand why she may not due to her age and current representation.

It’s been fascinating to observe the evolution of matrilines within the region to date and the inter-generational gaps between the females:

Porntip (1992): Branch One: Kanlaya (2018) - 26 years

Pak Boon (1992): Branch One: Tukta (2010) - 18 years (Ended)

Dokkoon (1993): Branch One: Mali (2010) - 17 years
Dokkoon (1993): Branch Two: Aiyara (2022) - 29 years

Num-Oi (2001): Branch One: Willow (2016) - 15 years (Ended)
Num-Oi (2001): Branch Two: Kati (2023) - 22 years

Anjalee (2006): Branch One: Gender Unknown - 19 years

Of the surviving matrilines, Dokoon’s has the shortest intergenerational gap, which saw her and her eldest daughter each produce calves with 10 days of each other in 2022.

Anjalee has the potential to found a matriline at 19 years depending on the sex of her unborn calf; while Mali will hopefully produce a female calf when she next breeds, near matching her mother’s age when she had her if she delivers a female calf circa 2028.
 
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