North American Asian and African Elephant Populations 2025: Discussion and Speculation

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

When it comes to SDZSP - I wouldn't be shocked if Musi goes back once a lot settles down. While unconfirmed - it seems very plausible that SDZSP has at least a few pregnant cows due before 2026. Furthermore, lots of construction going on. I'm going out on a limb and assuming he was transferred to SDZ as a "his job here is done for now, one less thing to worry about in the chaos" sort of thing.

The released reason that Musi left the Safari Park because the matriarch wasn't fond of him. Otherwise there's not a ton of reason to move him even between the construction, especially if he was getting along with the younger cows. Just more unnessecary stress on the animal.
I will note that there are 6 unannounced pregnancies in the population at the moment and of those, multiple were sired by a first time father. That certianly fits the bill for Musi and for SDZSP as a whole since they historically haven't announced pregnancies period. Musi was noted to have had many positive interactions with the younger girls, so I'm not counting him out in the least.

I worry about Musi's breeding prospects in general even if he ended up at a facility besides the Safari Park like Omaha. He resided with a mother daugter pair in Fresno starting when it opened nearly 10 years ago for over several years and has not impregnated them for his entire stay there.

It's been rehashed often, but the likely reason Musi reacted poorly at Fresno is due to the fact that he was young. As anyone experienced with elephants (especially Africans) can tell you, more mature males tend to not only be more confident breeders but also be received better by the cows. I think its far too early in Musi's breeding "career" to discount him yet.

 

[The Horse Boy]

It's been rehashed often, but the likely reason Musi reacted poorly at Fresno is due to the fact that he was young. As anyone experienced with elephants (especially Africans) can tell you, more mature males tend to not only be more confident breeders but also be received better by the cows. I think its far too early in Musi's breeding "career" to discount him yet.

Elephants and their wild adaptations are one of my special interests regarding wild animals, according to autism jargon. So I do know that in the wild, bulls will actually start breeding cows in their herd in the late 20s at the earliest bc that's when they're fully mature physically emotionally and sexually and the cows are far more like to accept that. I'm honestly a tad fazed the cow herds at sdsp accepted mabu to breed them since he was in his mid teens, the same scenario for Callee in omaha at 19 or 20 and tendaji at dallas a few years in his late teens. We were also saying in the Sedgwick news thread that a lot of captive bulls will often start breeding at earlier ages than in the wild for some reason.

 

[Mr.Ivory]

But the thing is, Musi has grown up in ideal conditions to become a breeding bull; he has

I worry about Musi's breeding prospects in general even if he ended up at a facility besides the Safari Park like Omaha. He resided with a mother daugter pair in Fresno starting when it opened nearly 10 years ago for over several years and has not impregnated them for his entire stay there. I think it was because he was still very young by the time they sent him out and there was no older bull with breeding experience to guide him, so when they acknowledged he was not breeding there, they sent him back to San Diego and was instantly traded with Mabu from Tucson and he got the job done fast. If the Safari Park did the right thing then, they should either have sent him to Birmingham and learn from bulwalgi until he entered the appropiate age to participatr in breeding herds , or had a mentor bull at fresno to show him the ropes of courting and mating with breeding cows already present. I think that's why he's now at elephant oddsey with two other young bulls, to get his breeding instincts in gear for when he goes to breeding facilities again. He has a wild sire with a lot of genetic value, more than all of Mabu's captive born sons.

The thing is that Musi has grown up in ideal conditions to become a breeding bull, he was witnessed multiple breeding and births, the only reason why he didn't have success at Fresno, was due to young age, and I doubt that Nolwazi would even allow herself to be mounted by such a young bull. I'm sure given time Musi will become a successful breeding bull.

 

[The Horse Boy]

The thing is that Musi has grown up in ideal conditions to become a breeding bull,

I believe the main reason ajani has not impregnated the Sedgwick cows is because he did not witness any natural breeding when he was a calf at Indianapolis as they have relied soley on ai breeding since his birth, same for Kedar at said facility as he's just about hitting maturity now. Louie had also failed to breed the Omaha cows and Batir at NC because he did not witness enough real breeding from bulls when he was a kid in Toledo nor did he get the mentorship he needed for it. So Jambo was indeed right when he said that an AI born bull not breeding at an adult age has nothing to with just being born that way.

 

[Kifaru Bwana]

I believe the main reason ajani has not impregnated the Sedgwick cows is because he did not witness any natural breeding when he was a calf at Indianapolis as they have relied soley on ai breeding since his birth, same for Kedar at said facility as he's just about hitting maturity now. Louie had also failed to breed the Omaha cows and Batir at NC because he did not witness enough real breeding from bulls when he was a kid in Toledo nor did he get the mentorship he needed for it. So Jambo was indeed right when he said that an AI born bull not breeding at an adult age has nothing to with just being born that way.

Indianapolis Zoo really needs to wise up. Perhaps that AI work has even proven an element in creating extra stressors in the herd and ... well, you all know what happened with the calves (going down with EEHV... and pop/blow out). It is hardly the wished for ideal and hopefully the AZA Elephant WG can tell them off AI and get a bull through natural breeding. Maybe short term they should even send their AI and otherwise unproven bull(s) away and get a proven breeder in ASAP and let this one stick around for a good time like 2-4 years....(I prefer short term if the proven gets job done ... as I believe seasoned proven bulls are both confident, know what they are about and how to behave in front of adult cows and be acceptable breeding/mating partners for the cows...

I believe the main reason ajani has not impregnated the Sedgwick cows is because he did not witness any natural breeding when he was a calf at Indianapolis as they have relied soley on ai breeding since his birth, same for Kedar at said facility as he's just about hitting maturity now. Louie had also failed to breed the Omaha cows and Batir at NC because he did not witness enough real breeding from bulls when he was a kid in Toledo nor did he get the mentorship he needed for it. So Jambo was indeed right when he said that an AI born bull not breeding at an adult age has nothing to with just being born that way.

I have always held the personal view and perception that young bulls need to move out of their birthed herd at 10-12 years of age and stay at a bachelor facility and before moving on to a full breeding capacity ... should transfer on to a breeding group with proven bull to engage with and learn from the breeding bull on site.

Hope the AZA Elephant WG reads all this stuff....

 

[The Horse Boy]

Indianapolis Zoo really needs to wise up. Perhaps that AI work has even proven an element in creating extra stressors in the herd and ... well, you all know what happened with the calves (going down with EEHV... and pop/blow out). It is hardly the wished for ideal and hopefully the AZA Elephant WG can tell them off AI and get a bull through natural breeding. Maybe short term they should even send their AI and otherwise unproven bull(s) away and get a proven breeder in ASAP and let this one stick around for a good time like 2-4 years....(I prefer short term if the proven gets job done ... as I believe seasoned proven bulls are both confident, know what they are about and how to behave in front of adult cows and be acceptable breeding/mating partners for the cows...

The definite recipe for fixing the slow birthing intervals and get Zahara pregnant again asap is to bring either Mabu or Callee once they're ready to move on from Fresno or Sedgwick. They would both be great at teaching kedar the ropes with actual breeding in sight. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against AI as lots of other captive and domestic animals have been bron that way. But over-reliance on it is where it becomes an issue as of course with the elephant program at Indy. As I have seen other zoochat users on elephant threads say, it is a much more costly time consuming and invasive procedure in contrast to natural breeding. Sometimes I do not even understand why Indy was so much more dependent on AI births than natural since Ajani's birth. Back to the topic of bringing in proven bulls, I'm still unsure if their fencing and gates can withstand bulls (esp mature ones like Mabu) even though they have a nearly 20 year old one on site.

 

[ZCChip]

Zahara already had a calf. A male in 2023. Plus, Kedar is there and unrelated to Zahara and Ivory. Maybe they are counting on him to be the next bull.

 

[The Horse Boy]

Zahara already had a calf. A male in 2023. Plus, Kedar is there and unrelated to Zahara and Ivory. Maybe they are counting on him to be the next bull.

Yes I knew that. But it was an AI birth. I still think bringing an experienced breeding bull is more essential so that Jabari can witness natural breeding before its for him to move to bachelor facilities. I think I'm the wild plenty of bull calves would have witness breeding multiple times when the breeding bull come and leave the matriarchal herd before their bachelor phases. And that should start being replicated more and more in zoos to set up a good breeding future for these calves.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

Zahara already had a calf. A male in 2023. Plus, Kedar is there and unrelated to Zahara and Ivory. Maybe they are counting on him to be the next bull.

It was/is the hope for Kedar to be the breeding bull there. Theyve been trying to breed him to Zahara for years with no sucess, hence Jabari's AI birth. The odds of Kedar being a successful breeding bull when he hasn't had any experience with an older bull or even left his natal facility are very slim. They can't afford to keep waiting for some breeding skills to develop when Zahara is the sole breeding female and she has no daughters yet.
Simply put, Kedar is taking up the spot that desperately needs to go to a proven breeding bull. The fact that Indi is so reliant on AI is something that severely needs to be fixed. Theyve only produced one surviving female and a solid line of non-breeding males. A severe disappointment given the value of those animals' genes.

 

[ZCChip]

It was/is the hope for Kedar to be the breeding bull there. Theyve been trying to breed him to Zahara for years with no sucess, hence Jabari's AI birth. The odds of Kedar being a successful breeding bull when he hasn't had any experience with an older bull or even left his natal facility are very slim. They can't afford to keep waiting for some breeding skills to develop when Zahara is the sole breeding female and she has no daughters yet.
Simply put, Kedar is taking up the spot that desperately needs to go to a proven breeding bull. The fact that Indi is so reliant on AI is something that severely needs to be fixed. Theyve only produced one surviving female and a solid line of non-breeding males. A severe disappointment given the value of those animals' genes.

and most of the breeding bulls are from Jack.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

and most of the breeding bulls are from Jack.

I am a firm believer that the US will need to important European bulls if we are to have a sustainable breeding program going forward. From the founder bulls and their sons we have the following currently eligible males:

Mabhulane
- Ingadze
- Lutsandvo
- Tsandzikle
- Inhlonipho
- Macembe
- Emanti

Maclean
- Ajani

Sdudla
- Tamani

Jackson
- Callee
- Tsavo

Tendaji

Vus'Musi

Titian

Willie (Deceased)
- Samson

Bulwagi (Non-breeder)
- Kedar
- Louie

Ali (Non-breeder)
- Jabali

With Kedar, Louie and Ajani being suspected non-breeders, that doesn’t leave very many unrelated bulls to utilize.

 

[The Horse Boy]

and most of the breeding bulls are from Jack.

I know all of Mabu's sons are not as genetically valuable as even tendaji and Musi, but they all grew up in excellent social/ breeding enviornments and dynamics and 6 of them are getting the skills they need at 3 bachelor facilities. I imag somewhere in the next year to 5 years from now, they will be ready to be offloaded to breeding facilities and start also becoming immediate breeding machines like Mabu himself and callee did after he left Birmingham for omaha.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

I know all of Mabu's sons are not as genetically valuable as even tendaji and Musi, but they all grew up in excellent herd and breeding enviornments and dynamics and 6 of them are getting the skills they need at 3 bachelor facilities. I imag in the next 2 to 5 years from now, they will be ready to be offloaded to breeding facilities and start also becoming immediate breeding machines like Mabu himself.

Mabu's sons would certianly be just as proficient at breeding as he is, but the ultimate question is should they be breeding. Mabu doesn't appear anywhere near retirement, why breed his sons when he is the more valuable animal? Not to mention that if the Safari Park girls are pregnant, their value diminishes even more.
I find myself skeptical that they will enter the breeding scene anytime soon given the circumstances. Breeding for the sake of breeding is pointless, especially if the calves produced will just end up all being a bunch of cousins. Heck, we're already seeing that with the Sedgwick and Omaha cohorts. It doesn't seem wise to me.

 

[The Horse Boy]

Mabu's sons would certianly be just as proficient at breeding as he is, but the ultimate question is should they be breeding. Mabu doesn't appear anywhere near retirement, why breed his sons when he is the more valuable animal? Not to mention that if the Safari Park girls are pregnant, their value diminishes even more.
I find myself skeptical that they will enter the breeding scene anytime soon given the circumstances. Breeding for the sake of breeding is pointless, especially if the calves produced will just end up all being a bunch of cousins. Heck, we're already seeing that with the Sedgwick and Omaha cohorts. It doesn't seem wise to me.

Ain't Callee and Tsavo also not too genetically valuable as they're Jackson sons and both captive bred? I have come to the conclusion that genetic value and diversity is even better from wild born males.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

But ain't Callee and Tsavo also not too genetically valuable as they're Jackson sons and both captive bred? I have come to the conclusion that genetic value and diversity is even better from wild born bulls.

Callee and Tsavo both have the genetic advantage of them being their wildborn mothers' only breeding offspring, so they do have that leg up on any of Mabu's sons given that any of their full sisters are still eligible to reproduce themselves. Should those sisters fail to reproduce, then that gives more of an incentive to introduce their genetics.
Jackson is also no longer breeding himself and has only eight surviving offspring (with only four in active breeding facilities) compared to Mabu's whomping fifteen surviving offspring (with likely more to come). Breeding any of Mabu's sons now when he has five viable daughters doesn't make a ton of logistical sense.

It would be a smarter choice to export a Mabu son or two and obtain even just one or two bulls from new bloodlines. It wouldn't take much to offset the trend of Mabu-Jackson heavy lines imo.

 

[The Horse Boy]

I am a firm believer that the US will need to important European bulls if we are to have a sustainable breeding program going forward.

Are they any European African bulls that could use an import to America that you guys know of? I know way less about the European African elephant population than in the states

 

[HawkAlot]

D

Mabu's sons would certianly be just as proficient at breeding as he is, but the ultimate question is should they be breeding. Mabu doesn't appear anywhere near retirement, why breed his sons when he is the more valuable animal? Not to mention that if the Safari Park girls are pregnant, their value diminishes even more.
I find myself skeptical that they will enter the breeding scene anytime soon given the circumstances. Breeding for the sake of breeding is pointless, especially if the calves produced will just end up all being a bunch of cousins. Heck, we're already seeing that with the Sedgwick and Omaha cohorts. It doesn't seem wise to me.

Do keep in mind, they are at least valuable on their mother's sides too.

Also minor correction to the above list of sires (unless there are some things officially reported but true story is otherwise) - Bulwagi also sired Tamani, not Sdudla.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

Do keep in mind, they are at least valuable on their mother's sides too.

Their mothers are all wildborn and quite valuable yes, but the key factor here is that each of Mabu's sons has one or more viable full sisters (Or has a sibling unrelated to Mabu).

Ndula
- Vus'Musi
- Lutsandvo
- Umzula-Zuli

Swazi
-Macembe
- Qinisa

Umngani
- Khosi
- Ingadze
- Inhlonipho
- Mkhaya

Litsemba
- Tsandzikle
- Nandi
- Mapenzi
- Meru

Moya
- Kamile
- Emanti

If these girls, potentially a few of their mothers, and their father are actively breeding, then that genetic value dwindles despite the wild-born genes. The only one I would entertain the possibility of breeding is Emanti.
The need for more naturally breeding bulls is certianly dire, but running the population into a standstill because every other calf is a first cousin isn't sustainable. I dont think we're in danger of that point just yet (If bulls like Musi, Samson, Tendaji and Tamani pull through as strong breeders then things could turn around a bit), but I'm sure it's something SSP coordinators are aware/wary of.

Also you certainly are right about Bulwagi being Tamani's sire, no idea where I pulled Sdudla from

 

[ZCChip]

Great job with the lists @Frankie_number_1_fan it helps with the keeping things organized.

As for exports/imports with the current U.S. federal administration posing tariffs it would not likely be realistic for four more years (at least) but that will give time for the younger bulls from the recent imports to grow up and propgate. I am sure only one or two will move on while the rest will be designated to the bachelor herd especially if they have full sisters that will reproduce with the new bulls in order to have fresh blood.

 

[The Horse Boy]

Has tamani been doing courting and breeding behaviors with the hogle girls? Zuri is only a few years younger than him and tamani grew up in a natural breeding enviornment then was in a bachelor herd for a few year before he moved to Kansas City in 2015