North American Asian Elephant Population 2025

[The Horse Boy]

Best quote I've heard about zoos and their future - never say never. Important thing is, if zoos are serious about building a sustainable population of elephants, calves on the ground and consolidation are the way to go. Zoos consolidated gorillas back in the 80s and now there's a sufficient self-sustaining population, and the same thing's happening with elephants.

Well as we all know, the American elephant population and birth rate for both species has historically fared very poorly, so we could have speculated that a non viable amount of elephants would be the future outcome. Fast forward to the past 2 to 3 years we are now seeing the overall birth rate of that population really skyrocket and the new EEHV vaccine should stabilize them if it's successful. Thus we will need more holders to take a new family split or bachelors in the coming years. I think Brookfield and San Antonio will build new facilities specifically to prepare for this new calf epidemic.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

While I still feel a bit skeptical that elephants might return with a large brand new habitat at all, I feel if that does end up happening let's say in the next 5 ot so years, it'll be African. The only US zoos I can see returning to Asians after a considerable hiatus from a phase out would be San Antonio and even Bronx if they do phase out after Happy. As I have said earlier this year when i made a future for the population thread, it's a strong possibility that America will have more African facilities than Asians in the future. The African population seems to be a lot more stable with a brighter future ahead of them. Here's what they said abt the future of their current habitat and perhaps the future one in a couple news articles and their website.

For the time being it does appear that there are more Africans readily available. It is not always financial barriers that keep zoos from holding elephants after all, but rather available individuals to form a steady program (Nashville comes to mind). The African population has a solid number of young founding cows that could feasibly be split and sent to a number of facilities within the decade.

I will say that one thing the NA Asian population has on the Africans is their relatively spread out bull genepool. The primary issue with the US' Africans boils down to bull diversity, which could either course correct or crash depending on various critical factors. The US also has a fairly solid relationship with the EEP for Asians and have had a relatively regular amount of imports within the last decade or so to introduce new individuals to the population, something the Africans also lack and I think that's a notable weakness to the program.

I'm fairly optimistic that we'll see a few more Asian holders pop up down the line once more imports are inevitably planned and herds split (Think White Oak, Houston, etc) which should boost the population. It's also notable to point out that there are several facilities like Tulsa and Cincinnati which surely will have thriving breeding programs before long. Ultimately I think both programs are trending in a decent direction, albiet with some bumps along the way.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

Well as we all know, the American elephant population and birth rate for both species has historically fared very poorly, so we could have speculated that a non viable amount of elephants would be the future outcome. Fast forward to the past 2 to 3 years we are now seeing the overall birth rate of that population really skyrocket and the new EEHV vaccine should stabilize them if it's successful. Thus we will need more holders to take a new family split or bachelors in the coming years. I think Brookfield and San Antonio will build new facilities specifically to prepare for this new calf epidemic.

It's also important to note that this birth boom isn't likely to last. We have been seeing multiple births coming out of relatively few facilities simply with the goal to prove their wildborn cows (which is the right move, and paying off!). Facilities are likely going to implement longer birth intervals on a case-by-case basis going on capacity, bachelor availability and ability to split groupings to other facilities. The population can only grow so far within the current trends.

 

[ZCChip]

While I still feel a bit skeptical that elephants might return with a large brand new habitat at all, I feel if that does end up happening let's say in the next 5 ot so years, it'll be African. The only US zoos I can see returning to Asians after a considerable hiatus from a phase out would be San Antonio and even Bronx if they do phase out after Happy. As I have said earlier this year when i made a future for the population thread, it's a strong possibility that America will have more African facilities than Asians in the future. The African population seems to be a lot more stable with a brighter future ahead of them. Here's what they said abt the future of their current habitat and perhaps the future one in a couple news articles and their website.

Next Steps for the Habitat

'Punch and Mikki’s yard will be repurposed into a bigger habitat for the Zoo’s southern white rhinoceroses. The Zoo then hopes to welcome a new species — okapi, also known as forest giraffe — into the current rhino yard. In future master planning exercises, the Zoo will consider the potential of having elephants back at the Zoo.'

Patty is also at Bronyx. I dont know what they will do with a single elephant but the pair seem to be doing well. If they ever get elephants again I would hope it is a bachelor group. They are ideal for that more so than a breeding group.

 

[ZCChip]

For the time being it does appear that there are more Africans readily available. It is not always financial barriers that keep zoos from holding elephants after all, but rather available individuals to form a steady program (Nashville comes to mind). The African population has a solid number of young founding cows that could feasibly be split and sent to a number of facilities within the decade.

I will say that one thing the NA Asian population has on the Africans is their relatively spread out bull genepool. The primary issue with the US' Africans boils down to bull diversity, which could either course correct or crash depending on various critical factors. The US also has a fairly solid relationship with the EEP for Asians and have had a relatively regular amount of imports within the last decade or so to introduce new individuals to the population, something the Africans also lack and I think that's a notable weakness to the program.

I'm fairly optimistic that we'll see a few more Asian holders pop up down the line once more imports are inevitably planned and herds split (Think White Oak, Houston, etc) which should boost the population. It's also notable to point out that there are several facilities like Tulsa and Cincinnati which surely will have thriving breeding programs before long. Ultimately I think both programs are trending in a decent direction, albiet with some bumps along the way.

And add to that the African population is much younger and with the recent imports divided among three facilities, it gave the African population a boost while more than half of the Asian population is older and just not as good breeders. We have seen so many stillborns, herpes virus, non breeding bulls, and the list goes on. We still need new fresh imports of Asians even though we have recently imported from Europe and Australia but a couple more groups would not hurt.

 

[Great Argus]

Zoos consolidated gorillas back in the 80s and now there's a sufficient self-sustaining population, and the same thing's happening with elephants

The current trends are looking good for elephants, but the population will be limited by who can afford them the space they need. This is already the biggest factor in most elephant phase-outs, facilities simply don't have the space for them. I think the populations are stabilizing well, but elephant space is very limited outside of who currently has them. It's going to be interesting going forwards who can commit to them.

 

[tigris115]

The current trends are looking good for elephants, but the population will be limited by who can afford them the space they need. This is already the biggest factor in most elephant phase-outs, facilities simply don't have the space for them. I think the populations are stabilizing well, but elephant space is very limited outside of who currently has them. It's going to be interesting going forwards who can commit to them.

Well we have places like White Oak that can help.

Another park that could help would be that WildCare thing St. Louis runs. With the space they have, they could easily have a large, maybe 50 acre, complex.

 

[Great Argus]

Well we have places like White Oak that can help.

They already have elephants - a definite benefit to the population for how many they can manage, but given White Oak is privately owned I slightly hesitate when considering long term. There's been some conflict there previously.

Another park that could help would be that WildCare thing St. Louis runs. With the space they have, they could easily have a large, maybe 50 acre, complex.

That park and San Antonio I think are the most likely bet going forwards. Though I don't think the park will be looking at elephants for awhile yet.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

That park and San Antonio I think are the most likely bet going forwards. Though I don't think the park will be looking at elephants for awhile yet.

I feel realistically St Louis' WildCare Park will look to their existing stock should they choose to invest in elephants. Moving their breeding group to the Park feels like a better logistical move for them rather than having two breeding groupings at two facilities, especially given the Zoo's limited capacity to breed.

 

[Jambo]

I feel realistically St Louis' WildCare Park will look to their existing stock should they choose to invest in elephants. Moving their breeding group to the Park feels like a better logistical move for them rather than having two breeding groupings at two facilities, especially given the Zoo's limited capacity to breed.

The way zoos and elephant husbandry are both moving at the moment, it's looking inevitable going forward.

The WildCare Park will certainly have the space to build a huge, world class facility for them. And Elephants would absolutely boost visitor numbers there too - an added bonus.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

The way zoos and elephant husbandry is moving at the moment, it's looking quite inevitable going forward.

The WildCare Park certainly have the space to build a huge, world class facility for them. And Elephants would absolutely boost visitor numbers there too - an added bonus.

Its fairly plausible that they'll pull a San Diego and opt for breeding at the WildCare Park and hold bachelors at the main Zoo. Seems like a win-win for both the zoo and the guests.

 

[tigris115]

Yeah their enclosure at the zoo is pretty substantial and quite nice so it could still hold elephants, even if not a breeding group

 

[StoppableSan]

Having seen Saint Louis' setup firsthand, it's honestly really, really solid. I haven't seen it in peak season yet, even during the wintertime it was a solid place. And they've been consistently making subtle improvements such as a gate between the Elephant Oasis and Elephant Springs yards and accessible ha-ha systems separated by a post-and-cable fence rather than a solid moat.

 

[tigris115]

Having seen Saint Louis' setup firsthand, it's honestly really, really solid. I haven't seen it in peak season yet, even during the wintertime it was a solid place. And they've been consistently making subtle improvements such as a gate between the Elephant Oasis and Elephant Springs yards and accessible ha-ha systems separated by a post-and-cable fence rather than a solid moat.

Good to know. The only improvement I can think of is indoor viewing

 

[Hyak_II]

Just as a sidenote, Columbus will likely have to do a herd split at some point down the road as well. Assuming Phoebe and Sundara both end up producing daughters, more than likely the two matrilines will eventually start butting heads as Sundara matures and seeks to establish her own family unit, and she’ll be backed up by Rudy as well.

Assuming the wild care park does end up taking on elephants down the road, I could see it being equally as likely that they simply do a matriline split, maintaining one at the zoo, and sending the other to the park.

 

[ZCChip]

Just as a sidenote, Columbus will likely have to do a herd split at some point down the road as well. Assuming Phoebe and Sundara both end up producing daughters, more than likely the two matrilines will eventually start butting heads as Sundara matures and seeks to establish her own family unit, and she’ll be backed up by Rudy as well.

Assuming the wild care park does end up taking on elephants down the road, I could see it being equally as likely that they simply do a matriline split, maintaining one at the zoo, and sending the other to the park.

I don’t see Columbus letting go of Phoebe. Sundara and Rudy likely will go back to white oaks but I don’t think it will happen. Phoebe is getting older and no daughter (living) yet.

 

[Kifaru Bwana]

Just as a sidenote, Columbus will likely have to do a herd split at some point down the road as well. Assuming Phoebe and Sundara both end up producing daughters, more than likely the two matrilines will eventually start butting heads as Sundara matures and seeks to establish her own family unit, and she’ll be backed up by Rudy as well.

Assuming the wild care park does end up taking on elephants down the road, I could see it being equally as likely that they simply do a matriline split, maintaining one at the zoo, and sending the other to the park.

This is true for both Columbus and Houston zoos. Both should at some point get off their - possible/potential - "high horses" and make the critical decision to spread out the younger individuals to other zoos commited to having both a breeding herd and a bachelor bull / bull breeding component. Few zoos will have those resources, but all the same I think it is both a necessity and a good thing that zoos like San Antonio and St. Louis Wild Care would be planning long term with breeding herds of Asiatic elephants.

I guess we will all have to keep watching this space ...

 

[ZCChip]

This is true for both Columbus and Houston zoos. Both should at some point get off their - possible/potential - "high horses" and make the critical decision to spread out the younger individuals to other zoos commited to having both a breeding herd and a bachelor bull / bull breeding component. Few zoos will have those resources, but all the same I think it is both a necessity and a good thing that zoos like San Antonio and St. Louis Wild Care would be planning long term with breeding herds of Asiatic elephants.

I guess we will all have to keep watching this space ...

and add to that the safari park in Canada. They are swamped with multiple matrilines. They could do better letting two or three go. But $$$. And now the tariffs.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

New Just as a sidenote, Columbus will likely have to do a herd split at some point down the road as well. Assuming Phoebe and Sundara both end up producing daughters, more than likely the two matrilines will eventually start butting heads as Sundara matures and seeks to establish her own family unit, and she’ll be backed up by Rudy as well.

Columbus won't need a herd split for likely many years. Phoebe is getting older but very much the established dominant individual, with both Rudy and Sunny being content to be subordinate cows. All three have grown up in less than natural social scenarios, having been split from their natal herds and facilites young, so it's up in the air if they would naturally seperate or continue to be a unit, as Houston is due to similar circumstances. Obviously this could change in the coming years but at the moment there is no apparent need to seperate them, nor do I anticipate there will be for a while. Houston needs to seperate due to space constraints, not social issues, which I believe may become the issue in Columbus eventually.

As for who would be sent out, it would more than likely be Phoebe's line, but keep in mind that this is entirely dependent on if Phoebe produces surviving daughters. Sunny, being the younger individual, has decades of breeding potential that Phoebe just doesn't have.

 

[E Maximus]

Columbus won't need a herd split for likely many years. Phoebe is getting older but very much the established dominant individual, with both Rudy and Sunny being content to be subordinate cows. All three have grown up in less than natural social scenarios, having been split from their natal herds and facilites young, so it's up in the air if they would naturally seperate or continue to be a unit, as Houston is due to similar circumstances. Obviously this could change in the coming years but at the moment there is no apparent need to seperate them, nor do I anticipate there will be for a while. Houston needs to seperate due to space constraints, not social issues, which I believe may become the issue in Columbus eventually.

As for who would be sent out, it would more than likely be Phoebe's line, but keep in mind that this is entirely dependent on if Phoebe produces surviving daughters. Sunny, being the younger individual, has decades of breeding potential that Phoebe just doesn't have.

Phoebe would not be going anywhere. Her care team would send Sunny and Rudy before her. She’s been there far too long and she’s much preferred. Rudy is also a “trouble” child so to speak so that would be an easy off load. Also, white oak does not own Sunny and Rudy so they would probably be “sold” or “loaned” to another zoo.