North American Asian and African Elephant Populations 2025: Discussion and Speculation

The Horse Boy said:
I just explained one reason on a few of them. But also many of the asian breeding facilities are capable of housing 2 or more adult bulls or even bachelors alongside breeding herd pretty much they have 3 or more outdoor holding pens meaning multiple spaces for bulls to hang independently. Most African breeding facilities on the other hand can only hold 1 mature bull as they only have 2 outdoor enclosures ( e.g. Dallas, Reid Park, Fresno, Sedgwick) meaning only 1 space for a bulls to hang alone. And finally, I just think Billy and bodhi have lived in Denver for too long now.
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Neither Billy or Bodhi are fully matured adult bulls, they have not been at Denver "too long" by any means. They're not taking up space needed by any younger bulls there for now so I don't see a reason to rush them to other facilities.

A facility having the technical ability to hold multiple bulls doesn't mean it makes sense to transport another bull in. Having multiple yards doesn't equate to how the barn is set up or how the other onsite bulls would react to another nearly mature bull onsite. Of your suggestions, most facilities either simply do not have the space, have zero reason to bring in a second bull or have no program at all.

I love a good speculation as much as the next person, but it feels like you're just throwing facility names out there without having anything behind it to actually spark a discussion. I know the threads are long, but I reccomend at least surfing through them to see if what you're saying has been discussed and/or disputed before.
 
Frankie_number_1_fan said:
Of your suggestions, most facilities either simply do not have the space, have zero reason to bring in a second bull or have no program at all.
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If by no program at all you're referring to San Antonio, then yes I'm fully aware they have none currently and their old habitay is now part of an African savannah expansion with giraffes birds and hoofstock. The reason I put San Antonio for Billy or Bodhi to move to on that list is because their fervent commitment to construct a new Asia precinct with a modern elephant exhibit on the other side of the freeway as the next phase of their master plan after they finish gorillas im the fall. I did not say the facilities i listed are/have to be immediate transfers.
 
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Frankie_number_1_fan said:
There was a leaked SSP doccument a few years back that reccomended those facilities to receive new breeding bulls. As for if this is still the case I am not 100% sure. It was discussed moderately on the old thread, I believe it's still up to read.
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Those plans would be a few years old now so I wouldn't take them with absolute certainty as plans constantly change - however it's not out of question to assume some may still be in the works.
 
Frankie_number_1_fan said:
Why would Smithsonian need a younger bull? It's been stated many times that Spike isn't the problem. He's bred the Rotterdam cows many times and has sired calves naturally in the past. There is no logic in them swapping a completly unrepresented bull for a bull from well-represented lines out of Denver (Billy and Bodhi aren't even options for the Smithsonian cows since they're related to them anyway).
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Apart from the other subject, do you know if the Rotterdam cows are confirmed to be pregnant?
 
Half of the breeding bulls in USA are middle aged or really aged (think Thai at Houston) so there will be time for transferring bulls soon, but it is still early.

We also have Ongard at Miami Zoo. He is not related to any USA females so he is more valuable than Bodi and BIlly. But he is still quite young. They probably will transfer him to a bachelor herd somewhere before a breeding situation.

The ZooChat does not have the answers to everything, we can only question. Only the zoo staff and the studbook keeper knows for sure and the USA SSP are very secretive. Or maybe there are no plans yet. We have to wait and see.
 
ZCChip said:
Half of the breeding bulls in USA are middle aged or really aged (think Thai at Houston) so there will be time for transferring bulls soon, but it is still early.
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I don't think bull swaps are necessary for Houston because they already brought in Chuck from Denver as a backup, and possible replacement, for Thai because the latter has about hit the usual age they live to and could pass any moment. I think that's the same reason why they have no plans to move Tucker. Houston really does a good job with proving backup breeding bulls imo
 
ZCChip said:
The ZooChat does not have the answers to everything, we can only question. Only the zoo staff and the studbook keeper knows for sure and the USA SSP are very secretive. Or maybe there are no plans yet. We have to wait and see.
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Indeedy. The whole point of this thread is to make estimates about elephant populations transfers and facilities, even if our predictions don't turn out accurately in the future Hell, we wouldn't have assumed Chuck would come to Houston to help with breeding until his move last spring in his mid teens. We initially thought Tucker was going to do all the help Thai with breeding and possible replac him when he passes. We also never expted Tsavo replacing Mabu at Reid Park as it was announced right when he arrived and the same for Titan going to Atlanta. A new bull might still come to Omaha any day from now without it being announced long in advance and without us expecting it.
 
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The Horse Boy said:
Indeedy. The whole point of this thread is to make estimates about elephant populations transfers and facilities, even if our predictions don't turn out accurately in the future Hell, we wouldn't have assumed Chuck would come to Houston to help with breeding until his move last spring in his mid teens. We initially thought Tucker was going to do all the help Thai with breeding and possible replac him when he passes. We also never expted Tsavo replacing Mabu at Reid Park as it was announced right when he arrived and the same for Titan going to Atlanta. A new bull might still come to Omaha any day from now without it being announced long in advance and without us expecting it.
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I say this without intent to start an argument or discourage discussion, but there is a difference between making educated speculation versus just putting ideas out for the sake of ideas. There will always be a layer of mystery surrounding potential SSP decisions, but I think most people active on this thread find pure speculation to be unnessecary, irrelevant and hard to engage with. This is coming from someone who loves to speculate and has had more than one outlandish idea over the years.

For example, was Chuck's move to Houston unexpected? Yes, but the prospect of a new bull moving to Houston to replace Thai was likely based on a number of factors. The same can't be said for the potential of a new bull coming to Cincinnati for instance, or even a bull coming to Omaha within the year since there are many public factors speaking against that happening. Could something unexpected happen? Sure! But all the same It's arguably counterproductive to continue to have repetitive conversations about the same subject when all that repeatedly end with the same information being shared over and over.

Sometimes a good reach of a speculation can be fun to toy with, but there's a time and a place for it so that this thread doesn't become clogged with pages of essentially the same discussion.
 
Frankie_number_1_fan said:
No, I don't have any confirmation if they are pregnant. And if I did, I would not be able to share that information until the zoo announced it themselves. My hope is that at least Nhi Lin is pregnant, but who's to say.
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then how long they would give spike until they assume he can not be fertile anymore? That is one of my concerns. Yes he has produced calves in the past but age and health could take a toll.
I hope they have a back up plan.
 
The Horse Boy said:
I don't think bull swaps are necessary for Houston because they already brought in Chuck from Denver as a backup, and possible replacement, for Thai because the latter has about hit the usual age they live to and could pass any moment. I think that's the same reason why they have no plans to move Tucker. Houston really does a good job with proving backup breeding bulls imo
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Tucker’s mother is Tess making him a half brother or related to at least half of the herd. Shanti and Joy are the only females that he could breed but Tess has a couple of daughters and granddaughter so space is a factor.
 
ZCChip said:
then how long they would give spike until they assume he can not be fertile anymore? That is one of my concerns. Yes he has produced calves in the past but age and health could take a toll.
I hope they have a back up plan.
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Spike is still fertile. Bulls 15 age his senior are still fertile and breeding. There’s no reason he wouldn’t be. He’s just been paired with reproductively questionable cows in the past. It’s also only been a little over two years since the new cows arrived. Given 30 day quarantine and several months for intros the soonest calves would be expected would have been this summer into winter. Smithsonian is no stranger to breeding, they have one of the leading endocrinologists and elephant reproduction specialists Janine Brown on their payroll. They’re also historically tight lipped on everything with many animal deaths and moves not ever being publicly announced and it they are it’s months after it’s happened. It wouldn’t be surprising if they waited days or weeks after a calves birth or even just a couple months prior to their birthing window to announce anything. Like with most other facilities just be patient and I promise you won’t be disappointed.
 
ZCChip said:
Tucker’s mother is Tess making him a half brother or related to at least half of the herd. Shanti and Joy are the only females that he could breed but Tess has a couple of daughters and granddaughter so space is a factor.
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Yes I read back in 2008 Houston took in Tucker with mom Tess from the controversial entertainment company in cali Have Trunk Will Travel- the Houston Zoo is much better and more humane place for them to live in my opinion. I remember there was some discussion on this site last year stating he had a breeding recommendation with Joy when she turns 8. But since he is a half brother of Tess's calves as ypu pointed out, I think Chuck's arrival and Tucker moving to another zoo honestly makes more sense.
 
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Frankie_number_1_fan said:
I say this without intent to start an argument or discourage discussion, but there is a difference between making educated speculation versus just putting ideas out for the sake of ideas. There will always be a layer of mystery surrounding potential SSP decisions, but I think most people active on this thread find pure speculation to be unnessecary, irrelevant and hard to engage with. This is coming from someone who loves to speculate and has had more than one outlandish idea over the years.

For example, was Chuck's move to Houston unexpected? Yes, but the prospect of a new bull moving to Houston to replace Thai was likely based on a number of factors. The same can't be said for the potential of a new bull coming to Cincinnati for instance, or even a bull coming to Omaha within the year since there are many public factors speaking against that happening. Could something unexpected happen? Sure! But all the same It's arguably counterproductive to continue to have repetitive conversations about the same subject when all that repeatedly end with the same information being shared over and over.

Sometimes a good reach of a speculation can be fun to toy with, but there's a time and a place for it so that this thread doesn't become clogged with pages of essentially the same discussion.
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Ah don't worry, you have not made me upset or feel discouraged at all as I find it fun to discuss ideas and news regarding the elephant population more or less as much as you do. I admit that a lot of the Billy Bodhi or Musi transfer ideas didn't really make sense due to their different program plans etc. So I acknowledge that I might have been talking out of my butt a bit lol
 
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E Maximus said:
Spike is still fertile. Bulls 15 age his senior are still fertile and breeding. There’s no reason he wouldn’t be. He’s just been paired with reproductively questionable cows in the past. It’s also only been a little over two years since the new cows arrived. Given 30 day quarantine and several months for intros the soonest calves would be expected would have been this summer into winter. Smithsonian is no stranger to breeding, they have one of the leading endocrinologists and elephant reproduction specialists Janine Brown on their payroll. They’re also historically tight lipped on everything with many animal deaths and moves not ever being publicly announced and it they are it’s months after it’s happened. It wouldn’t be surprising if they waited days or weeks after a calves birth or even just a couple months prior to their birthing window to announce anything. Like with most other facilities just be patient and I promise you won’t be disappointed.
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I hope you are right about his fertility. We are lucky to have the Rotterdam cows here and shouldn’t waste that opportunity.
 
I figure there's some fledgling elephant family tree projects out there, but given websites like Petra Prager's fotolexicon and elephant.se, would there be any harm in collaborating on publicly available family trees based on those databases?
 
The Horse Boy said:
Ah don't worry, you have not made me upset or feel discouraged at all as I find it fun to discuss ideas and news regarding the elephant population more or less as much as you do. I admit that a lot of the Billy Bodhi or Musi transfer ideas didn't really make sense due to their different program plans etc. So I acknowledge that I might have been talking out of my butt a bit lol
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Might I suggest that you make your own thread, where you can fling ideas at the wall to your heart's content?
 
Wisp O' Mist said:
Might I suggest that you make your own thread, where you can fling ideas at the wall to your heart's content?
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I created a thread called The Future of American Zoos earlier this year which has some speculative content on it. It's just that thread has not been as active as this one and news threads
 
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