North American Asian and African Elephant Populations 2025: Discussion and Speculation

A topic I've never really seen discussed here - with more and more facilities moving to a model of holding their own bachelors, what do you think the future of Denver and Birmingham's current bachelor-only style is?

I'm very curious to see if current trends continue... will the demand for such a place hold up? Or will they too move to becoming breeding facilities?
There aren't many designated bachelor facilities, hence the recommendation for the breeding facilities to improve their own facilities to be able to accommodate additional bulls too.

I honestly don't see a point where facilities like Denver are no longer required, especially if breeding success continues and EEHV is no longer a huge threat.
 
A topic I've never really seen discussed here - with more and more facilities moving to a model of holding their own bachelors, what do you think the future of Denver and Birmingham's current bachelor-only style is?

I'm very curious to see if current trends continue... will the demand for such a place hold up? Or will they too move to becoming breeding facilities?

I honestly think they will remain bachelor herds and we may see one or two more. Not all facilities can hold a surplus of bachelor bulls. Examples being Emmen and Koln/Cologne. They can hold only so many bachelors before they have to send them off.
 
Right now we have enough breeding groups but could use more bachelor holdings soon at the rate of bull calves being born of both species and more and more being related to other elephants in NA.

However in 20 or so more years we will need to see certain matrilineal splits so we will need more breeding groups holdings. But we also have to manage the bull numbers.
 
Right now we have enough breeding groups but could use more bachelor holdings soon at the rate of bull calves being born of both species and more and more being related to other elephants in NA.

However in 20 or so more years we will need to see certain matrilineal splits so we will need more breeding groups holdings. But we also have to manage the bull numbers.
To add onto this, I think it is also worth noting that in the next 10-20 or so years we will likely see breeding facilities aiming to focus more on forming larger family groups based solely on related animals rather than holding excess bulls. Facilies that have the space for extra bachelors now potentially will opt to house more cows and calves later on.
It makes more sense in the long run to sacrifice larger bachelor holding at a breeding facility in order to allow for more natural herd growth. Many current geriatric holders would/will make strong bachelor holding options, even if their capacity would only be 3-4 bulls.
 
What a year for the population thus far! Four births (and three females to boot!) And a fifth expected for the year is just fantastic. And there are still an additional three unannounced pregnancies to go, some of which could easily be due this year as well!
Interested to know who you think might be the remaining three that are unannounced.

The girls at Smithsonian could easily be two of them, and would be my guesses. For the other female; Mali at Syracuse, Belle at Fort Worth and Asha at OKC are all potentialities for the other for me.
 
Interested to know who you think might be the remaining three that are unannounced.

The girls at Smithsonian could easily be two of them, and would be my guesses. For the other female; Mali at Syracuse, Belle at Fort Worth and Asha at OKC are all potentialities for the other for me.
Definitely agree. I'm more inclined to say Nhi Lihn specifically at National, Mali and Belle to narrow it down to my top guesses.
If I had to guess, I would say that OKC will be aiming for Asha to give birth around the same time as Kairavi's first calf circa 2028.

I would say Rozie is another potential (though she likely would not be due until 2027 or later), but I highly doubt she is one of the unannounced pregnancies mentioned in January. Joy is very likely to be pregnant now too, as are the Cincinnati cows.
 
To clarify for those who missed the message, it was confirmed by E Maximus in the initial 2025 population update that there were 8 pregnancies, with 4 unannounced:
Four surviving calves have been welcomed into the population with 8 confirmed pregnancies and 4 announced for the years to come.

This birth, of course, marks that number down to three.
 
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Ok so now learning there are 3 unannounced Asian Elephant pregnancies, thank you to @Frankie_number_1_fan for confirming where that announcement was made, wouldn’t it be safe to say African Lion Safari and White Oak are also safe guesses for the remaining 3 unannounced pregnancies?
 
Ok so now learning there are 3 unannounced Asian Elephant pregnancies, thank you to @Frankie_number_1_fan for confirming where that announcement was made, wouldn’t it be safe to say African Lion Safari and White Oak are also safe guesses for the remaining 3 unannounced pregnancies?
I would say that both are likely to have pregnancies currently. Natasha and Emily specifically are likely to be pregnant, and could easily have calves within the next few months. White Oak hasn't had a birth in a few years now, so hopefully they have a pregnant cow or two.
My only hesitation with them being contenders for the remaining three (And only E Maximus can confirm this) is that I can see both facilities not wanting to openly share their pregnancies with other AZA facilities since they're both relatively secluded from the population as a whole. Just my two cents though.
 
Interested to know who you think might be the remaining three that are unannounced.

The girls at Smithsonian could easily be two of them, and would be my guesses. For the other female; Mali at Syracuse, Belle at Fort Worth and Asha at OKC are all potentialities for the other for me.

Possibilities:

Washington DC: Nhi Linh and Trong Nhi, likely 2026?
St Louis: Priya, and Maliha by artificial insemination, as they did with Jade to have Jet.
Albuquerque: small chance it could be Rozie again
Syracuse: Kirinia (if she is breedable after 2015 calf), Mali (twins are 3 years old now),
Cincinnati: Anak and Yasmin (towards end of 2026 since Sabu arrived mid 2024)
Oklahoma City: Asha (towards end of 2026 or early 2027 since she had a stillborn in mid 2024).
Fort Worth: Belle (last calf 2023)
Houston: Joy (born in 2017, but things have happened), Tess, Tilly (born in 2018), Tupelo

There you go.
 
@ZCChip , Tilly per AZA guidelines I think isn’t recommended to breed still until she’s 8 years old which won’t happen till next year. Kirinia I also find doubtful as I don’t believe she is breedable anymore either.
Kirinia is excluded from the breeding program due to her endometriosis, yes. The only viable cow in Syracuse is Mali, who I do agree is likely pregnant and due this year or next.
 
Possibilities:

Washington DC: Nhi Linh and Trong Nhi, likely 2026?
St Louis: Priya, and Maliha by artificial insemination, as they did with Jade to have Jet.
Albuquerque: small chance it could be Rozie again
Syracuse: Kirinia (if she is breedable after 2015 calf), Mali (twins are 3 years old now),
Cincinnati: Anak and Yasmin (towards end of 2026 since Sabu arrived mid 2024)
Oklahoma City: Asha (towards end of 2026 or early 2027 since she had a stillborn in mid 2024).
Fort Worth: Belle (last calf 2023)
Houston: Joy (born in 2017, but things have happened), Tess, Tilly (born in 2018), Tupelo

There you go.
Most of these are strong potentials for current pregnancies, but only a handful are likely to be the three pregnancies indicated back in January. Said pregnancies would've had to have been conceived by late 2024.
Thus this eliminates Rozie, likely Asha and Joy.
 
Possibilities:

Washington DC: Nhi Linh and Trong Nhi, likely 2026?
St Louis: Priya, and Maliha by artificial insemination, as they did with Jade to have Jet.
Albuquerque: small chance it could be Rozie again
Syracuse: Kirinia (if she is breedable after 2015 calf), Mali (twins are 3 years old now),
Cincinnati: Anak and Yasmin (towards end of 2026 since Sabu arrived mid 2024)
Oklahoma City: Asha (towards end of 2026 or early 2027 since she had a stillborn in mid 2024).
Fort Worth: Belle (last calf 2023)
Houston: Joy (born in 2017, but things have happened), Tess, Tilly (born in 2018), Tupelo

There you go.
The information was advised at the beginning of the year, and considering elephant pregnancies can be determined at three or so months earliest, it rules out a few of those options.

Asha and Rozie both lost calves late 2024. Rozie in December, so we can rule her out. Asha in July, but unless she fell pregnant straight after (unlikely as they'd want to give her time to recover), we can probably rule her out too. Sabu arrived in June last year. I don't know how quickly he was introduced to the girls, but it's probably unlikely they're the females too due to the timeframe involved.

I considered Tess at Houston, but it's now been over four years since she last calved, and I would have thought she would have calved sooner had they intended to breed her straight after Teddy again. She's a possibility still. As is Joy. However Chuck arrived in May of last year, so similar to the Cincy girls, it's also a tight squeeze timeframe wise for her to be introduced and then get pregnant for it to be insider knowledge.

Saint Louis's girls are 50/50. I imagine they'll wait for Sam to get on site before breeding with Priya, and I would've thought Maliha would've calved already had the intention been to use AI. Perhaps she was AI'd without success, or she's due very soon. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The two Smithsonian girls are sure bets for me. It makes sense, considering the time they've been in Washington. And for the other, it's a weigh up between Mali at Syracuse and Belle at Fort Worth who both are also very good chances; being around three years since both last calved.
 
The information was advised at the beginning of the year, and considering elephant pregnancies can be determined at three or so months earliest, it rules out a few of those options.

Asha and Rozie both lost calves late 2024. Rozie in December, so we can rule her out. Asha in July, but unless she fell pregnant straight after (unlikely as they'd want to give her time to recover), we can probably rule her out too. Sabu arrived in June last year. I don't know how quickly he was introduced to the girls, but it's probably unlikely they're the females too due to the timeframe involved.

I considered Tess at Houston, but it's now been over four years since she last calved, and I would have thought she would have calved sooner had they intended to breed her straight after Teddy again. She's a possibility still. As is Joy. However Chuck arrived in May of last year, so similar to the Cincy girls, it's also a tight squeeze timeframe wise for her to be introduced and then get pregnant for it to be insider knowledge.

Saint Louis's girls are 50/50. I imagine they'll wait for Sam to get on site before breeding with Priya, and I would've thought Maliha would've calved already had the intention been to use AI. Perhaps she was AI'd without success, or she's due very soon. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The two Smithsonian girls are sure bets for me. It makes sense, considering the time they've been in Washington. And for the other, it's a weigh up between Mali at Syracuse and Belle at Fort Worth who both are also very good chances; being around three years since both last calved.
Agree with all of this!

However I will note that it may easily be too late for Trong Nhi given that she last gave birth over a decade ago now. Large birth intervals have happened so I'm not ruling her out, but I'm not holding my breath. Nhi Lihn I'm fairly confident on.

My fingers are crossed for Maliha being pregnant via AI whether she's one of the three cows confirmed in January or if she got pregnant sometime this year. At 19 now her clock is rapidly ticking.

Mali and Belle are almost certianly expecting by now just given previous calving intervals/trends.

Houston could have a number of cows pregnant, though with their limited capacity I'm not as confident it could be Tess or Tupelo.
 
Agree with all of this!

However I will note that it may easily be too late for Trong Nhi given that she last gave birth over a decade ago now. Large birth intervals have happened so I'm not ruling her out, but I'm not holding my breath. Nhi Lihn I'm fairly confident on.

My fingers are crossed for Maliha being pregnant via AI whether she's one of the three cows confirmed in January or if she got pregnant sometime this year. At 19 now her clock is rapidly ticking.

Mali and Belle are almost certianly expecting by now just given previous calving intervals/trends.

Houston could have a number of cows pregnant, though with their limited capacity I'm not as confident it could be Tess or Tupelo.
Considering I had had put Bluebonnet as one of the females due this year, I'm fairy confidant that both Belle, and Mali are expecting agree, as for Houston it was mentioned a few months ago Chuck was showing a a lot of interest in both Tess and Tupelo, so I wouldn't rule them out giving birth sometime next year, or early 2027.
 
Agree with all of this!

However I will note that it may easily be too late for Trong Nhi given that she last gave birth over a decade ago now. Large birth intervals have happened so I'm not ruling her out, but I'm not holding my breath. Nhi Lihn I'm fairly confident on.

My fingers are crossed for Maliha being pregnant via AI whether she's one of the three cows confirmed in January or if she got pregnant sometime this year. At 19 now her clock is rapidly ticking.

Mali and Belle are almost certianly expecting by now just given previous calving intervals/trends.

Houston could have a number of cows pregnant, though with their limited capacity I'm not as confident it could be Tess or Tupelo.

What’s interesting about Trong Nhi is that she’s 22 years old, so the birth interval since her last calf should be negligible until she reaches the age of what would be considered the maximum age for a first time cow to conceive (i.e. now). I’ve heard this placed anywhere from 22-24 years and while it’s by no means recommended to delay first time breeding until this age, I’m hoepful she would still be viable (if not already pregnant) - especially considering the pregnancy and lactation from her previous calf afforded her additional time of non-cycling.

Considering how long both cows have been at the National Zoo, I’d be curious why they’re not pregnant if they’re not in calf by now.
 
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