North American Asian and African Elephant Populations 2025: Discussion and Speculation

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

What’s interesting about Trong Nhi is that she’s 22 years old, so the birth interval since her last calf should be negligible until she reaches the age of what would be considered the maximum age for a first time cow to conceive (i.e. now). I’ve heard this placed anywhere from 22-24 years and while it’s by no means recommended to delay first time breeding until this age, I’m hoepful she would still be viable (if not already pregnant) - especially considering the pregnancy and lactation from her previous calf afforded her additional time of non-cycling.

Considering how long both cows have been at the National Zoo, I’d be curious why they’re not pregnant if they’re not in calf by now.

Both girls arrived in 2022, and weren't fully introduced to Spike for months afterwards. It's fairly likely that, even if they both conceived shortly after those introductions, calves wouldn't be due until this year at the earliest.

It appears like it's going to be a waiting game when it comes to National, it's entirely likely that they'll wait weeks to announce a calf is even on the ground!

 

[Jambo]

However I will note that it may easily be too late for Trong Nhi given that she last gave birth over a decade ago now. Large birth intervals have happened so I'm not ruling her out, but I'm not holding my breath. Nhi Lihn I'm fairly confident on.

I thought the same, until Blackpool's Tara welcomed a calf a few weeks ago after a similar birth interval. So whilst unlikely, it's still possible, and my fingers are crossed Trong Nhi's in the latter stages of pregnancy.

Although I do agree Nhi Linh, Belle and Mali appear the best candidates.

as for Houston it was mentioned a few months ago Chuck was showing a a lot of interest in both Tess and Tupelo, so I wouldn't rule them out giving birth sometime next year, or early 2027.

Due to Thai's current representation, the only way I can see Tess breeding again, is if it was with Chuck. Despite that, I think Houston might end up prioritising Tupelo and Joy for the next cohort of calves rather than breed from Tess again. Tess already has two daughters within the herd; perfect for matrilineal succession.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

Due to Thai's current representation, the only way I can see Tess breeding again, is if it was with Chuck. Despite that, I think Houston might end up prioritising Tupelo and Joy for the next cohort of calves rather than breed from Tess again. Tess already has two daughters within the herd; perfect for matrilineal succession.

Chuck is comparatively of much lower genetic value. Thai (assuming he is still capable of natural breeding of course) is a wildborn animal and it makes much more sense to breed him to Tess, another wildborn animal. Despite Thai having a nice number of offspring, there is zero guarantee that they all will survive to produce surviving calves of their own. Short of Houston having capacity issues, there is little reason not to utilize a wildborn pairing.
However I do agree it is likely Houston will opt to breed Tupelo, Tilly and Joy versus her if they are indeed short on space.

 

[Jambo]

Both girls arrived in 2022, and weren't fully introduced to Spike for months afterwards. It's fairly likely that, even if they both conceived shortly after those introductions, calves wouldn't be due until this year at the earliest.

It appears like it's going to be a waiting game when it comes to National, it's entirely likely that they'll wait weeks to announce a calf is even on the ground!

Nhi Linh's apparently quite close with Spike so I wouldn't be surprised if she calves first. It's now almost October, so if both females hypothetically produce calves next month, they still would have been conceived December of 2023 (quite a while after they were introduced to Spike).

Spike's a capable male, so I wonder whether Nhi Linh had a miscarriage, or perhaps National were just giving Nhi Linh time to 'mature' before grouping her with Spike when she's cycling.

 

[Jambo]

Chuck is comparatively of much lower genetic value. Thai (assuming he is still capable of natural breeding of course) is a wildborn animal and it makes much more sense to breed him to Tess, another wildborn animal. Despite Thai having a nice number of offspring, there is zero guarantee that they all will survive to produce surviving calves of their own. Short of Houston having capacity issues, there is zero reason not to utilize a wildborn pairing.

Chuck's actually quite valuable within the AZA population.

Paternally, via his wildborn father he only his sisters (Opal and Emily) at ALS, both of which have bred; Jake at Denver (who's been utilised for AI once); and the young sisters, Achara and Kai at OKC (the eldest of which welcomed her first calf this year). There's obviously been a focus by the program to get the most out of Rex's offspring, hence Chuck moving to Houston, Jake welcoming a son in STL via AI, and Achara welcoming a son too.

Chuck's also the only surviving adult offspring of his mother, Mali, who of course does have two young sons (twins).

Mali's father (Indy) is wildborn and his only descendants within the American population aside from Mali and her sons, are Jade at OKC (and therefore her young son). Very little representation.

Mali's the only surviving offspring of her mother (Targa). Targa's the first generation offspring of two founders (Vance and Birka). However their only descendants (less than ten in total) aside from Mali and her sons, are at White Oak and Endangered Ark (with the exception of Hugo at Dickerson Park).

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

Chuck's actually quite valuable within the AZA population.

Paternally, via his wildborn father he only his sisters (Opal and Emily) at ALS, both of which have bred; Jake at Denver (who's been utilised for AI once); and the young sisters, Achara and Kai at OKC (the eldest of which welcomed her first calf this year). There's obviously been a focus by the program to get the most out of Rex's offspring, hence Chuck moving to Houston, Jake welcoming a son in STL via AI, and Achara welcoming a son too.

Chuck's also the only surviving adult offspring of his mother, Mali, who of course does have two young sons (twins).

Mali's father (Indy) is wildborn and his only descendants within the American population aside from Mali and her sons, are Jade at OKC (and therefore her young son). Very little representation.

Mali's the only surviving offspring of her mother (Targa). Targa's the first generation offspring of two founders (Vance and Birka). However their only descendants (less than ten in total) aside from Mali and her sons, are at White Oak and Endangered Ark (with the exception of Hugo at Dickerson Park).

Thai, as a wildborn animal, is still much more valuable than Chuck.

Not denying Chuck has value, of course, and he's a fabulous animal for Houston's younger girls, but if there is opportunity to utilize a founder then it will more than likely be taken. Thai only has 8 offspring, Most under the age of 10. Only one of which has produced offspring of her own. Despite the vaccine showing promise, there is no guarantee those calves will survive.
At his age, he arguably should be utilized because his breeding years are doubtlessly limited (if they aren't over already). Another calf with Shanti might not be the best move due to her three sons, but a calf, even a male calf with wildborn Tess would still hold immense value.

 

[Jambo]

Thai, as a wildborn animal, is still much more valuable than Chuck.

Not denying Chuck has value, of course, and he's a fabulous animal for Houston's younger girls, but if there is opportunity to utilize a founder then it will more than likely be taken. Thai only has 8 offspring, Most under the age of 10. Only one of which has produced offspring of her own. Despite the vaccine showing promise, there is no guarantee those calves will survive. At his age, he arguably should be utilized because his breeding years are doubtlessly limited. Another calf with Shanti might not be the best move due to her three sons, but a calf, even a male calf with wildborn Tess would still hold immense value.

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if the coordinator has made this decision. Thai has three offspring who are now mature (or close to it) including a daughter who's already calved, and two further daughters who are adolescents and will both be having their first calves soon if everything goes to plan. Adding to that, he has two young sons and a young daughter, all of which I acknowledge are still within the EEHV danger zone.

At this point with four sons, it's likely that at least two of them will end up sitting in a bachelor situation long term. Another son from Thai would have little value aside from serving as a complacency in case of the worst; and with the limited space Houston already have, it might not be a conceivable risk at this point. Thai already has four daughters too, three of which are essentially out of the main EEHV danger zone - all of which will likely be producing the next generation at Houston. A fifth daughter from him would be nice, but not 'needed'.

From a comparative perspective (discluding the private facilities that operate separately from the AZA; ALS, White Oak and Endangered Ark); Chuck theoretically only has the following adult family members within the main AZA population descended from his founder lineage: Jake (2009 - via Rex), Achara (2014 - via Rex), Mali (1997 - mother), Jade (2007 - via Indy) and Hugo (2011 - via Vance and his son, Tommy). Just five adult descendants from multiple founder lines aside from Chuck.

That's where I think the value comes in - whilst another calf from Thai and Tess would be great, I don't think it would yield as much future breeding value as a calf from Chuck and Tess.

 

[John Marchwick]

Chuck is comparatively of much lower genetic value. Thai (assuming he is still capable of natural breeding of course) is a wildborn animal and it makes much more sense to breed him to Tess, another wildborn animal. Despite Thai having a nice number of offspring, there is zero guarantee that they all will survive to produce surviving calves of their own. Short of Houston having capacity issues, there is little reason not to utilize a wildborn pairing.
However I do agree it is likely Houston will opt to breed Tupelo, Tilly and Joy versus her if they are indeed short on space.

Considering Thailand just had a calf less than a year ago, I would still think he is capable of breeding. In terms of the capacity issue with Houston, isn’t Tucker supposed to be transferred out in the not so distant future? I remember that being talked about a while back in addition to the fact there was some leaked document that mentioned him going to White Oak.

 

[Jambo]

Considering Thailand just had a calf less than a year ago, I would still think he is capable of breeding. In terms of the capacity issue with Houston, isn’t Tucker supposed to be transferred out in the not so distant future? I remember that being talked about a while back in addition to the fact there was some leaked document that mentioned him going to White Oak.

Well when you account for the 22 month gestation too, Thailand at least last successfully mated in January of 2023. So a fair while back; if Tess isn't currently pregnant now.

Due to his age, it could reach a point where he can no longer mate, so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out with him as their breeding bull. It seems Houston is already preparing to replace him as breeding bull though.

Tucker was supposed to go to White Oak, but it appears those plans have been canned. With Teddy maturing, he'll soon need a spot in the bull barn, so sending Tucker out makes the most sense next, but this won't be required for at least the next few years.

 

[John Marchwick]

Well when you account for the 22 month gestation too, Thailand at least last successfully mated in January of 2023. So a fair while back; if Tess isn't currently pregnant now.

Due to his age, it could reach a point where he can no longer mate, so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out with him as their breeding bull. It seems Houston is already preparing to replace him as breeding bull though.

Tucker was supposed to go to White Oak, but it appears those plans have been canned. With Teddy maturing, he'll soon need a spot in the bull barn, so sending Tucker out makes the most sense next, but this won't be required for at least the next few years.

How do you know those plans were canned? E Maximus who’s an extremely reliable source said Tucker was supposed to be transferred out. It makes since honestly he would. I also feel like in the next couple years it’d be safe to assume Nelson would be getting transferred out too.

 

[Jambo]

How do you know those plans were canned? E Maximus who’s an extremely reliable source said Tucker was supposed to be transferred out. It makes since honestly he would. I also feel like in the next couple years it’d be safe to assume Nelson would be getting transferred out too.

Sorry, I must've missed that comment from E Maximus - how long ago was that made?

I do agree with Nelson transferring out, but it'll be interesting to see where he ends up. Denver seems like it'll soon be running out of space with all the bulls born as of late!

 

[John Marchwick]

Sorry, I must've missed that comment from E Maximus - how long ago was that made?

I do agree with Nelson transferring out, but it'll be interesting to see where he ends up. Denver seems like it'll soon be running out of space with all the bulls born as of late!

As amazing as this is, Tucker already has been recommended to transfer elsewhere. As well as Baylor.

 

[Jambo]

Thanks. The comment is from April of 2024, so I assume was in reference to White Oak, which was his recommended destination from the previous year's report. In a subsequent post they noted it to be an imminent transfer - it's now almost eighteen months later, so plans may have very well changed.

 

[HawkAlot]

With Thai getting older - I'd be very curious to see if he is ultimately retained as a secondary bull to breed with Thai's daughters alongside Chuck upon Thai's passing.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

I believe Houston stated sometime last year in a social media comment that they had no current plans to transfer Tucker out. Seeing as it is just a reccomendation and to White Oak no less, I'm hesitant to believe that he will actually end up there.

However, he will have to be transferred out to somewhere within the next handful of years since Houston will need the bachelor space for Teddy. He would be a suitable bull for a number of breeding facilities, so I imagine he's likely to head to one versus a dedicated bachelor holding like Denver.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

New With Thai getting older - I'd be very curious to see if he is ultimately retained as a secondary bull to breed with Thai's daughters alongside Chuck upon Thai's passing.

He's related to a large number of the viable or soon to be viable animals there, it doesn't make a ton of sense to retain him when Chuck could get the job done with all the cows.

 

[John Marchwick]

I believe Houston stated sometime last year in a social media comment that they had no current plans to transfer Tucker out. Seeing as it is just a reccomendation and to White Oak no less, I'm hesitant to believe that he will actually end up there.

However, he will have to be transferred out to somewhere within the next handful of years since Houston will need the bachelor space for Teddy. He would be a suitable bull for a number of breeding facilities, so I imagine he's likely to head to one versus a dedicated bachelor holding like Denver.

Given what has been posted though, and the direction the Houston Zoo continues to take with its elephant breeding program, it’s still realistic in my opinion Tucker is going to be transferred out.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

Given what has been posted though, and the direction the Houston Zoo continues to take with its elephant breeding program, it’s still realistic in my opinion Tucker is going to be transferred out.

Yes, I agree. I would be shocked if it was to White Oak though.
I feel a facility like Albuquerque would be ideal for him. He's old enough to have a high chance of breeding successfully, and if all else fails he would be great companionship for Albert. If plans change he could just as easily go to Oregon as well.

 

[Jambo]

He's related to a large number of the viable or soon to be viable animals there, it doesn't make a ton of sense to retain him when Chuck could get the job done with all the cows.

The only hypothetical scenario I can see Tucker remaining is if it is Tess's line that is eventually split off eventually. Tucker's a relatively valuable bull, so I don't think we'll see his situation hanging in limbo for too long. ABQ seems possible, as does OKC who have space following Rex's passing (especially if Kandula isn't going to be utilised).

 

[Kifaru Bwana]

What’s interesting about Trong Nhi is that she’s 22 years old, so the birth interval since her last calf should be negligible until she reaches the age of what would be considered the maximum age for a first time cow to conceive (i.e. now). I’ve heard this placed anywhere from 22-24 years and while it’s by no means recommended to delay first time breeding until this age, I’m hoepful she would still be viable (if not already pregnant) - especially considering the pregnancy and lactation from her previous calf afforded her additional time of non-cycling.

Considering how long both cows have been at the National Zoo, I’d be curious why they’re not pregnant if they’re not in calf by now.

Trong Nhi already has had a calf (F Nhi Linh) in 2013. Both are the recent additions to the Washington NZP ("breeding") group.