Amazon near tipping point of switching from rainforest to savannah – study

UngulateNerd92

UngulateNerd92

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Climate crisis and logging is leading to shift from canopy rainforest to open grassland.

Much of the Amazon could be on the verge of losing its distinct nature and switching from a closed canopy rainforest to an open savannah with far fewer trees as a result of the climate crisis, researchers have warned.

Rainforests are highly sensitive to changes in rainfall and moisture levels, and fires and prolonged droughts can result in areas losing trees and shifting to a savannah-like mix of woodland and grassland. In the Amazon, such changes were known to be possible but thought to be many decades away.

New research shows that this tipping point could be much closer than previously thought. As much as 40% of the existing Amazon rainforest is now at a point where it could exist as a savannah instead of as rainforest, according to a study published in the journal Nature Communications.

Amazon near tipping point of switching from rainforest to savannah – study
 
birdsandbats said:
It would certainly help if Brazil stopped cutting it down. @Onychorhynchus coronatus Do you know much about the current status of things?
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Regarding the Amazon, only that the s*** is really hitting the fan. It is a very confusing picture that we are receiving about what is actually going on there (and by design because this is precisely what the Bolsonaro administration want).

Regarding the Pantanal a colleague of mine who works with giant anteater conservation was telling me how terrible the fires are over in that area of Brazil right now.
 
Here is another relevant article.

The Amazon savanna? Rainforest teeters on the brink as climate heats up

Shifting rainfall patterns, especially those exacerbated by climate change, could drive large parts of the Amazon rainforest to become drier savanna, a new study has found.

Rainfall acts like a buffer in rainforest ecosystems, allowing forests to adapt to changes and keep destructive forces like fire at bay. But if the amount of rain dips below a certain level, rainforests could lose their ability to come back, instead turning into drier, savanna-like ecosystems.

That’s an issue because the climate plays a big role in where it rains and how much, and if we continue to add climate-warming greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, that could radically change the makeup of the tropics.

https://news-mongabay-com.cdn.amppr...teeters-on-the-brink-as-climate-heats-up/amp/
 
Here is another relevant article.

Rainforests Could Turn Into Savannas as Climate Warms, New Study Warns

As the planet warms, it isn’t just humans who are feeling the heat — trees are too. Rising temperatures are disrupting a primary engine of life on Earth: photosynthesis.

A recent study from Brazil adds to fears that climate change is altering the face of the planet. Literally. Tropical forests could look more and more like deciduous forests or savannas in the future, according to the research based in Brazil’s Cerrado biome. This ecoregion abjacent to the Amazon Rainforest is where savanna, grasslands and forests mingle.

The paper, published in Environmental Research Letters in March, focused on four trees species found in both the Amazonian tropical forests and savanna land: Qualea parviflora, known as pau–terra in Portuguese; Pseudobombax longiflorum, or the Brazilian shaving-brush tree; Hymenaea stigonocarpa (jatobá do Cerrado); and Vatairea macrocarpa, also known as angelim.


Rainforests Could Turn Into Savannas as Climate Warms, New Study Warns
 
I think that the critical thing that needs to happen right now at this moment in time in order to conserve the Amazon rainforest is the involvement and negotiation of the USA.

I dont say that lightly and in fact I never thought I would say this because I am really not fond of US meddling and neocolonialism in Latin American affairs / politics and historically it has always been the cause of tragedies and enormous crimes and mess whenever this has happened.

But with the case of the current administration of Brazil and its attitude towards the Amazonian rainforest I believe there is no other option available and it is absolutely necessary and urgently required for the Biden administration to pull no punches and to go all in on Bolsonaro with everything they've got.

No Queensbury rules need apply in this case, just maul them Roberto Duran style and if necessary hit below the belt repeatedly for added emphasis (afterall they will and can be reliably expected to do exactly the same).

If they do not do this and do it thoroughly well they will not succeed in changing anything here with regards to the conservation of the Amazon rainforest because the current administration have already proved themselves to be incredibly slippery characters who will say one thing and do another.

As they say in Brazil there is the "Lei para inglês" ("The English law") and I feel that this is what would result if it isn't made crystal clear to the powers that be that concrete and real actions have to be taken with regards to conserving the Amazon rather than feel good platitudes and meaningless paper parks which the administration will not respect and will continue to promote the deforestation of.
 
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I don't believe that this latest discussion and agreement between Biden and Bolsonaro will achieve anything and I agree with the authors of this piece in the Guardian :

Joe Biden’s billions won’t stop Bolsonaro destroying the Amazon rainforest | Marina Silva and Rubens Ricupero

As I detailed in my comment above this one what (IMO) was needed was not a handover of billions of dollars from the Americans and hollow talk and "promises" from the Bolsonaro administration but a genuine assertiveness and aggressive cornering stance on the part of the USA (ironically they would not have hesitated to have done with any leftwing regime in the region like that of Maduro in Venezuela or Cuba).

Biden has been played for an utter fool and mugged off as far as I can see and I believe it is due to the total naivety of his administration because this exchange of money is not likely at all to improve the situation in the Amazon.

I could be wrong but I suspect this will merely lead to "paper parks" and platitudes as the administration continues its deforestation for profit.
 
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Can I please remind readers that the cattle industry overseas in US, Japan, EU and demand from PR China is largely the driver for destruction of the Amazonian rainforest. So, if you cut that out at home the soja bean agriculture in Brasil has no future and will stop the large Bolsonaro liaised clique responsible for large scale clearcutting for development is put staid.
 
Kifaru Bwana said:
Can I please remind readers that the cattle industry overseas in US, Japan, EU and demand from PR China is largely the driver for destruction of the Amazonian rainforest. So, if you cut that out at home the soja bean agriculture in Brasil has no future and will stop the large Bolsonaro liaised clique responsible for large scale clearcutting for development is put staid.
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Ex president Lula has now been released from jail and has been cleared of corruption charges which have been annulled.

It is as of yet unclear whether he will stand in the 2022 election but some of the things he has stated in recent interviews seem indicative that he might and if he does run for president against Bolsonaro he stands a very good chance of winning the election (unless the Americans decide to instigate a coup).

A Lula administration would be pro-environment (in contrast to the ceaseless rabidly anti-environment / conservation rhetoric and actions of the Bolsonaro administration) and would likely make a greater effort to protect the Amazon and other ecosystems such as the Atlantic rainforest, Pantanal, Cerrado and Caatinga.

However, the culture of deforestation and environmental crime that has grown exponentially due to Bolsonaro and his cronies in the region of Amazonia will be very hard to clear away and would conceivably require more aggressive millitary action perhaps even approximating a counter-insurgency type strategy/ tactics.

Moreover, it should be mentioned that the Lula / Dilma administration did chronically underperform in terms of combating deforestation in the Amazon for many years and that kind of time wasting and nonsense is ill afforded at this present time, there must be a strong political will present this time around.
 
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Bolsonaro makes further cuts to the environmental budget only a couple of days after having made the climate change / Amazonian deforestation pledge with US president Biden:

Brazil cuts environment budget despite climate summit pledge

As climate summit unfolds, no Biden-Bolsonaro Amazon deal forthcoming

I hate to say "told you so" but I was fully expecting this to happen though perhaps not quite as fast as it has.

This is why you absolutely do not approach a pathological lying psychopath like Bolsonaro and the bunch of thieves, con-artists and gangsters that comprise his "administration" with light hearted chattering, the proverbial olive branch and billions of dollars.

It goes without saying that even within international diplomacy there is a time for the carrot and a time for the stick.

It was unquestionably the time for a thoroughly brutal thrashing and bludgeoning of Bolsonaro and his administration with the proverbial stick which Biden and his utopians evidently spectacularly failed to realise.

Thanks to Biden Amazonian biodiversity, the world and humanity in general have been played by this "jeitinho brasileiro", beyond pathetic !
 
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KevinB said:
Really not good and very concerning.

Deforestation in the Amazon keeps breaking records under the rule of Bolsonaro.

https://phys.org/news/2021-06-brazilian-amazon-deforestation.html
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Yes, very concerning indeed but I have no illusions left anymore that anything will improve on this front for the remaining time allotted to Bolsonaro until the next election (2022).

In the next election the fascist will hopefully have been voted out of office and a new administration will take over and there may be some hope, however, it goes without saying that if he isn't voted out of office (or removed from power) then the Amazon is truly *******.

I truly blame Biden and his administration for this latest increase in deforestation, if the Amazon was the priority that he claimed it to be his team should have approached this issue as aggressively as possible as it is abundantly clear that this is the only approach which works with Bolsonaro and his administration.

Whenever I check the news I see tough talk and posturing from Washington towards Moscow, Beijing and Tehran that suggest that a continued US geopolitical hegemony is a top priority of the new administration but nothing towards Bolsonaro's Brazil and what is being done to the Amazon (and much more besides).

So despite having been very hopeful at the start of the year I have basically now concluded that Biden is yet another mediocre empire politician.

Very disappointing and depressing...
 
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What a wonderful surprise ! :rolleyes: A visit from the new head of the CIA to Brazil to meet with Bolsonaro and cronies.

Always a pleasure when they come to town !

On discussion was America's declining geopolitical influence in the region (cue sad violin music) China's rise (cue sinister music) and how to check the rise and re-election of former president Lula who represents a threat due to BRICK'S (because he is totally an evil "communist" :rolleyes:).

Oh and sale of vaccines to one of the nations most badly impacted by the pandemic too :rolleyes:....

What an absolute joke and here I was expecting something substantial from Biden like perhaps a tougher stance on Bolsonaro endorsed deforestation of the Amazon as he suggested he would in his pre-election speeches and against massive human rights abuses across the country.

Instead what appears to be going on is typical reconsolidation of the empire by an empire career politician who actually doesn't care about the Amazon or human rights abuses but only that the sun shouldn't go down on the empire of stars and Stripes.

Would the CIA head have been sent to have dinner with Noriega in Panama City in the late 80's or Trujillo in Santo Domingo in the early 60's ?

They want to keep things going as normal and the Amazon and human rights be damned.

Utterly pathetic state of affairs.


Joe Biden põe CIA para vigiar Lula, garantir pré-sal e vacina americana - César Fonseca
 
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Onychorhynchus coronatus said:
I think that the critical thing that needs to happen right now at this moment in time in order to conserve the Amazon rainforest is the involvement and negotiation of the USA.

I dont say that lightly and in fact I never thought I would say this because I am really not fond of US meddling and neocolonialism in Latin American affairs / politics and historically it has always been the cause of tragedies and enormous crimes and mess whenever this has happened.

But with the case of the current administration of Brazil and its attitude towards the Amazonian rainforest I believe there is no other option available and it is absolutely necessary and urgently required for the Biden administration to pull no punches and to go all in on Bolsonaro with everything they've got.

No Queensbury rules need apply in this case, just maul them Roberto Duran style and if necessary hit below the belt repeatedly for added emphasis (afterall they will and can be reliably expected to do exactly the same).

If they do not do this and do it thoroughly well they will not succeed in changing anything here with regards to the conservation of the Amazon rainforest because the current administration have already proved themselves to be incredibly slippery characters who will say one thing and do another.

As they say in Brazil there is the "Lei para inglês" ("The English law") and I feel that this is what would result if it isn't made crystal clear to the powers that be that concrete and real actions have to be taken with regards to conserving the Amazon rather than feel good platitudes and meaningless paper parks which the administration will not respect and will continue to promote the deforestation of.
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I don't understand what you are advocating here? Going 'all in'? 'Maul them'? 'Hit them below the belt'? What is this intended to mean? I don't imagine you are intending that the Biden administration lead the United States to invade Brazil and take control of their government, but I'm not entirely sure what else you are suggesting would be 'crystal clear' 'real actions' and 'substantiative'.

You are holding the United States responsible and that is your right that I do not wish to impede, but I don't really understand what you idea of meaningful action is intended to be. I would very much like to better understand what you think should be done.

Instead what appears to be going on is typical reconsolidation of the empire by an empire career politician who actually doesn't care about the Amazon or human rights abuses but only that the sun shouldn't go down on the empire of stars and Stripes.
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Given statements like this, I cannot understand your position. Are you advocating for United States intervention or not? The claim of 'empire' is usually associated within the United States with foreign intervention abroad, which you appeared to be advocating favorably before... but the Biden administration interfering less with Brazil appears to be ensuring an empire? I don't believe both of those things can be true.

There is very little support for the United States interfering in the affairs of other countries right now, even on a diplomatic level, with most Americans treating discussion of international foreign policy as the talk of 'career politicians' deflecting from domestic policy issues.

I apologize if this post comes off in any way confrontational. I would just like to understand better. I am sure there are possible solutions that I am not aware of.
 
Here is another relevant article.

Has the Amazon Reached Its ‘Tipping Point’?

Some Brazilian scientists fear that the Amazon may become a grassy savanna — with profound effects on the climate worldwide.

tried to collect Amazonian air she got so woozy that she couldn’t even operate the controls. An atmospheric chemist, she wanted to measure the concentration of carbon high above the rainforest. To obtain her samples she had to train bush pilots at obscure air-taxi businesses. The discomfort began as she waited on the tarmac, holding one door open against the wind to keep the tiny cockpit from turning into an oven in the equatorial sun.

https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproj.../01/04/magazine/amazon-tipping-point.amp.html
 
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