Australasian Common Chimpanzee Population

In other 'L family' news, I was at Monarto today and Lani was coming into oestrus and had young Enzi sticking to her like glue. Apparently the older males are much more focussed on Galatea and let him monopolise Lani. It would certainly be young for him to father an infant, but not beyond the realms of possibility-- though obviously the best scenario would be for as many infants to be sired by Tsotsi as possible!

The youngest confirmed sire in the region is Lubutu, who would have been seven years and nine months when he impregnated Shiba in March 2001. Enzi is seven years and seven months, so it could well be possible.

Apparently Sule succeeded in siring infants to Shiba and Naomi, despite being low ranking amongst the adult males due to the females not having swellings. Similar to what you describe with Enzi, the higher ranking males had other priorities.

If Tsotsi did sire an infant to Lani, it’d be a similar pairing to his sister, Sanda, who has two offspring to Lani’s cousin Luka. The L line is well represented and Lani is predominately being bred for social reasons, so I guess it’s not overly important who sires her infant. She’ll probably be looking at long birth interval before the next one.

I hope Galatea is finally successful in having a healthy infant. It’d be of great benefit to her; and of course ensure the representation of a founder.
 
Taronga Zoo - Details on Infant

Lisa’s infant is a female and was born 23/05/2023.

Though male infants are a boost to a female’s ranking, it’s important to note that this is a long term benefit. Males don’t begin to gain status over adult females until around the age of 10, by which time Lisa will be 54 years of age.

Given the current practice is to delay breeding from females until their mid-teens and the three eldest chimpanzees at Taronga have lived until 60-61 years of age, this makes this infant an excellent candidate for transferring out.

It’s a sad reality Lisa likely won’t live to see the benefits of her young daughter breeding; and in any case, she’s closely related to the males in Taronga’s community.
 
To be honest, I think a female infant would probably have more to offer than a male with regards to companionship for Lisa in her latter years (assuming and hoping she's going to be yet another long-lived Taronga female). A male offspring is certainly nice for status reasons, but she does already have Liwali, and I'd imagine a male would spend more of his adulthood socialising with other males, as per the norm. When Lani was at Taronga, I used to almost always see her near her mother; it'd be lovely for Lisa to have that again at the end of her life.

Obviously this is looking ridiculously far into the future, but I could see this new Lisa daughter eventually transferring out alongside either Safiri or Ceres' next infant if it's female-- unless Taronga want to keep an 'L' daughter to carry on Lulu's legacy.
 
To be honest, I think a female infant would probably have more to offer than a male with regards to companionship for Lisa in her latter years (assuming and hoping she's going to be yet another long-lived Taronga female). A male offspring is certainly nice for status reasons, but she does already have Liwali, and I'd imagine a male would spend more of his adulthood socialising with other males, as per the norm. When Lani was at Taronga, I used to almost always see her near her mother; it'd be lovely for Lisa to have that again at the end of her life.

Obviously this is looking ridiculously far into the future, but I could see this new Lisa daughter eventually transferring out alongside either Safiri or Ceres' next infant if it's female-- unless Taronga want to keep an 'L' daughter to carry on Lulu's legacy.

I’d agree with your assessment of this female transferring out once Lisa passes and she’s in her mid-teens.

It’s my understanding Cebeli will remain in the community as support to Ceres and to sustain numbers in the troop. It was stated upon the import of the females from Europe that they would sustain the community for the next 50 years, so I don’t believe more females will be added for the foreseeable.

If Ceres is currently pregnant with a second daughter, they may as well retain the first. Being six years older, that’s six years sooner she can provide benefit to Ceres by expanding their family group (which will still be another 10 years or so due to no longer allowing adolescents to breed).

If Ceres has a second daughter this year, not only would the infants grow up close (and support each other in transferring to a new troop), they’d be from two different maternal bloodlines - the same of which can be said for Hope and Zola at Monarto.
 
To be honest, I think a female infant would probably have more to offer than a male with regards to companionship for Lisa in her latter years (assuming and hoping she's going to be yet another long-lived Taronga female). A male offspring is certainly nice for status reasons, but she does already have Liwali, and I'd imagine a male would spend more of his adulthood socialising with other males, as per the norm. When Lani was at Taronga, I used to almost always see her near her mother; it'd be lovely for Lisa to have that again at the end of her life.

Obviously this is looking ridiculously far into the future, but I could see this new Lisa daughter eventually transferring out alongside either Safiri or Ceres' next infant if it's female-- unless Taronga want to keep an 'L' daughter to carry on Lulu's legacy.
Going forward I hope we can see the 'L' line being retained at Taronga. Taronga have usually done this in the past (retaining one breeding female per each line), but it seems they've now changed this, retaining sons instead of daughters.

At the moment, from each of the initial lines there are only the following females remaining from each:
'L' Line: Lisa (1979), L baby (2023)
'S' Line: Shiba (1982), Shona (1987), Sembe (2008), Safiri (2019)
'B/S' Line: Sacha (1980)
'F' Line: Kuma (1987)
'K' Line: Kamili (1995)

Looking at that list, it's clear that Taronga still has work to do breeding wise, with some of their females. We can assume the 'B-S' line represented through Sacha will be ending here, with her no longer breeding; but she will have descendants through her two sons (the alpha and beta males). The 'L' Line will likely continue through this new baby (assuming Taronga retain her). The 'S' Line will likely continue through Sembe or Safiri. I doubt Taronga breed from both, and it's likely Sembe will either be sent to another facility to breed or remain at Taronga as a non breeding female. The 'F' Line which is already well represented through Jojo (alpha in the 70's/80's) will likely be continued with Kuma's next offspring (hopefully a female). And of course, the same could be said for the 'K' line, with Kamili off contraception but due to the past issues she's had with raising offspring, it's unlikely.
 
Going forward I think we can see the 'L' line being retained at Taronga. Taronga have usually done this in the past (retaining one breeding female per each line), but it seems they've now changed this, retaining sons instead of daughters.

At the moment, from each of the initial lines there are only the following females remaining from each:
'L' Line: Lisa (1979), L baby (2023)
'S' Line: Shiba (1982), Shona (1987), Sembe (2008), Safiri (2019)
'B/S' Line: Sacha (1980)
'F' Line: Kuma (1987)
'K' Line: Kamili (1995)

Looking at that list, it's clear that Taronga still has work to do breeding wise, with some of their females. We can assume the 'B-S' line represented through Sacha will be ending here, with her no longer breeding; but she will have descendants through her two sons (the alpha and beta males). The 'L' Line will likely continue through this new baby (assuming Taronga retain her). The 'S' Line will likely continue through Sembe or Safiri. I doubt Taronga breed from both, and it's likely Sembe will either be sent to another facility to breed or remain at Taronga as a non breeding female. The 'F' Line which is already well represented through Jojo (alpha in the 70's/80's) will likely be continued with Kuma's next offspring (hopefully a female). And of course, the same could be said for the 'K' line, with Kamili off contraception but due to the past issues she's had with raising offspring, it's unlikely.

Sadly I think Kamili is a lost cause. If she hasn’t got the hang of infants now, I doubt she ever will.

Chimpanzees have traditionally been considered a female dispersal species, but recent studies have proved examples of fission-fusion transfers between communities, sometimes with females returning pregnant or with an infant.

Since adolescent females are commonly accepted into captive troops and the second priority to achieving a cohesive community is genetic viability, I’m confident the female dispersal model will be followed - with the exception of Cebeli.

There’s an argument for the retention of Sembe (or Safiri) in support of Shiba, though she does have three sons and is the highest ranking female. Lisa by contrast, won’t live long enough to benefit from that support - so I can’t see her daughter retained after her death for the sake of continuing a line.

2043 Projection:

L Line - extinct
B Line - functionally extinct (no females)
K Line - extinct/functionally extinct (no reproductive age females)
F Line - functionally extinct (no reproductive age females)
S Line - continued through Sembe
C Line - continued through Ceres
N Line - continued through daughter of Naomi

Two new lines would ideally be introduced at this point via an import from outside the region.
 
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Twin Births in Chimpanzees

To date, there have been five sets of twins born in the region:

———————————————

Wellington Zoo:

Yoka (1953) gave birth to:

1.0 Unnamed (26/08/1979) Died 26/08/1979
1.0 Jimmy (26/08/1979) Died 13/10/1979

———————————————

Taronga Zoo:

Susie (1948) gave birth to:

0.1 Gemini (16/10/1970) Exported 08/09/1982
0.1 Unnamed (16/10/1970) Died 16/10/1970

Bessie (1950) gave birth to:

0.1 Unnamed (03/11/1981) Died 03/11/1981
0.1 Unnamed (03/11/1981) Died 03/11/1981

Lulu (1960) gave birth to:

1.0 Unnamed (09/04/1983) Died 22/04/1983
1.0 Unnamed (09/04/1983) Died 17/05/1983

Sandra (1971) gave birth to:

1.0 Unnamed (19/11/1997) Died 20/11/1997
0.1 Unnamed (20/11/1997) Died 02/12/1997

———————————————

Taronga is the most well represented facility due to the sheer volume of births; followed by Wellington, the second breeding hub of chimpanzees throughout the 20th Century.

Twins are most common in older mothers, who’ve given birth to multiple offspring. The females listed here ranged in age from 23-31 years and had all had previous births.

It’s surprising by today’s standards to see a ninth birth to a 26 year old female (Yoka). Some of her later infants were handraised though.

Yoka was also the only adult female to die in childbirth; while nine of the ten infants were either stillborn or died as neonates - two of which suffered injuries from an exhibit mate (Mary attacked Lulu’s twins).

With chimpanzees commonly breeding into their 30’s and even 40’s these days, it’ll be interesting to see if there’s any future incidences of twins. I’d been hopeful that either Shiba or Lisa might have welcomed twins by now; but Ceres, Kuma and Kamili are all aged 28-33 years old and have all had two or more births previously.

———————————————
 
Taronga Zoo - Paternity Study (1995)

In 1995, a study on genetic variation in the Australasian captive population of chimpanzees was undertaken. The results were published in 1997: Captive breeding, paternity determination, and genetic variation in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in the Australasian region.

Prior to this study, paternity of infants was assigned to the alpha male; but as we know, this isn’t a foolproof assumption and this was indeed proved via this study.

Paternity results:

Prior to this study, Jojo (1964) was assumed to be the sire of 24 infants. Eight of those infants were tested as part of this study. Of those, he was only confirmed as the sire of one - Sonny (1978). Two of those infants were confirmed as not his - Shiba (1981) and Lewis (1985). The other five infants were unconfirmed.

Shiba (1981) was sired by either Flint (1971) or Mike (1973). Flint was the beta male and noted to be the more likely possibility; but it’s interesting to see Mike as an option considering the M line has only five known living descendants in the region. Flint was the son of Fifi and assumed to be sired by Bobby, making him and Jojo full brothers.

Snowy (1983) was confirmed as the sire of Lubutu (1993), Havidole (1994) and Kamili (1995); as well as an infant born to Ficha in 1995 that died as a neonate. Kuma (1991) was not tested in this study, but was later revealed to be sired by Snowy. Chimbuka (1995) was also not mentioned. Chiki would have been pregnant while this study was undertaken; but he was later confirmed to be sired by Snowy - his last infant to survive to adulthood.

Spitter (1960) had three possible sires recorded - Sailor, Micky and Bobby. The assumption Sailor was her sire was made purely on the assumption he was the eldest/highest ranking.

Lisa (1979) and Sacha (1980) each have two possible sires listed - Jojo and Flint. As noted above, these males were both born to Fifi and assumed to share Jojo as a sire i.e. they were full brothers.

Shona (1987) has three possible sires listed: Danny, Sonny and Mervin. Mervin was a possible sire of the six of the infants in this study - two of which died as adolescents; and three of which were exported. Shona is sterilised.

Other interesting notes:

Lulu’s year or birth is listed as 1960. Though Taronga stated it was 1952 in later years, a few years ago, I found a newspaper article from her arrival in 1964 showing what I then estimated to be a four year old chimpanzee. This study confirms my assumption.

Lewis was vasectomised 25/01/1995. The intention was to reduce Snowy’s competitors - which at the time were Monte, Lewis and Gombe; with Lobo also approaching reproductive age.
 
New Male Chimpanzee for Rockhampton Zoo

Jerry (1995) has been transferred from Sydney Zoo to Rockhampton Zoo.

https://www.rockhamptonregion.qld.g...on-Zoo-welcomes-new-chimp-‘Jery’-to-the-troop

The castrated male is intended to provide Alon (2008) with male companionship once the elderly Cassius (1971) passes on.

The transfer further reduces the males in Sydney Zoo’s troop to four:

1.0 Fritz (1982)
1.0 Tim (1991) Castrated
1.0 Charli (1994) Castrated
1.0 Many (2000) Castrated
 
I wonder if Sydney Zoo intends to bring in an additional intact male or two, either in the near future or when Fritz passes on. They had incredibly bad luck losing Maike and his presumed successor, Moggli.
 
I wonder if Sydney Zoo intends to bring in an additional intact male or two, either in the near future or when Fritz passes on. They had incredibly bad luck losing Maike and his presumed successor, Moggli.

I did wonder that when the troop was rescued to one intact male (Fritz). He’s 41 years old, which is at the upper end of the life expectancy for a male chimpanzee and putting things bluntly, is the main obstacle to bringing in intact males.

It’d be nice for Sydney Zoo’s genetically valuable females to have the opportunity to breed - especially considering they have two young females (born 2002 and 2006).

I would have thought they’d have the best luck introducing adolescent intact males to the remaining castrated males. At this point in time, I’d consider Fumo (2013) and Sudi (2014) to ideal candidates; but if Fritz lives another five years or so, they’ll be young adults.
 
Tsotsi (1989-2023)

Some sad news from Monarto Safari Park:

We are deeply saddened to announce the passing of Tsotsi, alpha Chimpanzee of Monarto Safari Park’s troop.

Tsotsi, who was 33 years old, was a fearless leader of the troop as well as doting father to four-year-old Hope. Veterinarians had been monitoring Tsotsi for the last week as he was showing signs of being unwell and unfortunately on Thursday morning he passed away.


At this time we do not know the cause of his death but what we do know is that the troop will need to take time to grieve and to reconfigure their dynamics and some of this will need to be in private.

Therefore, from the time of his death, the Chimpanzee habitat at Monarto Safari Park will be closed until further notice.

The one ray of light is that little Hope, named by Jane Goodall, will continue her father’s legacy and continue to safeguard the future of Chimpanzees.


Thank you Tsotsi, it was an honour.

Born 1989 at Adelaide Zoo to Peter and Fimi, Tsotsi was a genetically valuable chimpanzee as well as the much loved alpha of Monarto’s chimpanzee troop.

Tsotsi is survived by at least one offspring (Hope); as well as his elder sister, Sanda, and her two offspring at Hamilton Zoo.
 
Tsotsi (1989-2023)

Some sad news from Monarto Safari Park:

We are deeply saddened to announce the passing of Tsotsi, alpha Chimpanzee of Monarto Safari Park’s troop.

Tsotsi, who was 33 years old, was a fearless leader of the troop as well as doting father to four-year-old Hope. Veterinarians had been monitoring Tsotsi for the last week as he was showing signs of being unwell and unfortunately on Thursday morning he passed away.


At this time we do not know the cause of his death but what we do know is that the troop will need to take time to grieve and to reconfigure their dynamics and some of this will need to be in private.

Therefore, from the time of his death, the Chimpanzee habitat at Monarto Safari Park will be closed until further notice.

The one ray of light is that little Hope, named by Jane Goodall, will continue her father’s legacy and continue to safeguard the future of Chimpanzees.


Thank you Tsotsi, it was an honour.

Born 1989 at Adelaide Zoo to Peter and Fimi, Tsotsi was a genetically valuable chimpanzee as well as the much loved alpha of Monarto’s chimpanzee troop.

Tsotsi is survived by at least one offspring (Hope); as well as his elder sister, Sanda, and her two offspring at Hamilton Zoo.
Very sad news to learn. Fingers crossed Hope wasn't his only offspring, it's very likely he also sired the troop's youngest, Happy.

It'll be interesting to see who takes over alpha now, although I'd assume Sandali will probably be the main candidate, with Enzi beginning to rise in the rankings in the coming years.
 
Very sad news to learn. Fingers crossed Hope wasn't his only offspring, it's very likely he also sired the troop's youngest, Happy.

It'll be interesting to see who takes over alpha now, although I'd assume Sandali will probably be the main candidate, with Enzi beginning to rise in the rankings in the coming years.

It also wouldn’t amaze me to learn Tsotsi was the sire of Zola and though they’ve only recently been taken off contraception, there’s a very small chance Lani or Galatea may have conceived before his passing.

I’d assume Sandali will assume the alpha role. Unlike Taronga’s community following Lubutu’s passing, I’d expect that to be a quick process - almost unopposed. Boyd is 45 years old and Gombe has shown little interest in the alpha role.

Enzi will almost certainly assume the alpha role by his teens. He’s the youngest male in almost 20 years and would be backed by his mother, the alpha female.
 
I’m almost certain Tsotsi sired Zola; she looks very much like him and his family.

Actually, I would not assume a quick easy transition to Sandali as an alpha male. All three of them are ambitious, and Boyd and Gombe have a close alliance. Sandali’s main alliance was with Tsotsi. I don’t know where the impression was given that Gombe has shown little interest in taking the top position. I think the females who previously supported Tsotsi, especially Zombi, will definitely influence things, but I hope that it will be as smooth a transition as possible. Sandali would be my pick, but it is by no means a foregone conclusion.
 
Population Forecasting

My second population forecast will focus on the region’s Common chimpanzee population.

This forecast is a little different from the orangutan forecast as the population is larger; paternity is not always guaranteed; and decisions are often made based on social dynamics.

Nonetheless, I’ll do the best I can.

Facts:

The maximum life expectancy is up to 60 years for females; while males are heavily afflicted by heart disease and late 20’s to early 40’s has been a typical lifespan within the region to date. To date, only two males have reached 50 years of age.

The region currently favours breeding females for the first time in their mid-teens; with females now breeding into their early 40’s. The female dispersal pattern is usually followed.

The subspecies of 99% of the chimpanzees in the region is unknown and the region does not manage them at the subspecies level.

Forecast:

The following is a speculatory forecast based on the above facts.

Australasian Chimpanzee Population 2033 (Forecast)

New Zealand

Hamilton Zoo:

1.0 Gandali (03/02/2020) Alon x Holly
1.0 Infant (00/00/2030) Gandali x Malika
1.0 Infant (00/00/2031) Gandali x Chiku

0.1 Sanda (10/04/1985) Peter x Fimi
0.1 Malika (27/10/2010) Sam x Samantha
0.1 Chiku (15/02/2016) Luka x Sanda
0.1 Kendi (17/12/2020) Luka x Sanda

Lucy, Lucifer and Luka are deceased.

Gandali has been imported as the new breeding male due to his genetic value; and Malika transferred in from Wellington Zoo.

Malika and Chiku have welcomed their first respective infants.


Wellington Zoo:

1.0 Alexis (20/08/1998) Boyd x Cara
1.0 Bakari (11/06/2012) Sam x Sally
1.0 Kitwe (15/11/2014) Sam x Keza
1.0 Akida (01/11/2021) Alexis x Sally
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2023) Alexis x Keza
1.0 Infant (00/00/2033) Bakari x Capri

0.1 Cara (10/09/1981) Jojo x Chiki
0.1 Samantha (25/12/1983) Jojo x Sutu
0.1 Sally (13/01/1985) Jojo x Spitter
0.1 Keza (06/07/1998) Marty x Samantha
0.1 Capri (11/02/2018) Alon x Leakey
0.1 Mzuri (08/12/2021) Alon x Leakey

Jessie is deceased.

Alexis is 35 years old and has conceded leadership of the troop to Bakari.

Following the birth of an infant to Keza in 2023, a breeding hiatus followed until the arrival of the two adolescent females from Rockhampton.

Malika is transferred to Hamilton Zoo.

Capri gives birth to her first infant in 2033; with plans to breed from Keza once more (social dynamics) and to breed from Mzuri as elderly females in the troop pass.


Australia

Taronga Zoo:

1.0 Samaki (27/11/2001) Lubutu x Shiba
1.0 Furahi (28/02/2003) Lubutu x Kuma
1.0 Shikamoo (25/07/2003) Lubutu x Sacha
1.0 Sule (04/04/2008) Lubutu x Sacha
1.0 Liwali (22/09/2014) Samaki x Lisa
1.0 Niambi (07/10/2020) Sule x Naomi
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2023) Shikamoo x Ceres
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2025) Sule x Naomi
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2029) Sule x Kuma

0.1 Sacha (11/06/1980) Jojo x Spitter
0.1 Shiba (22/05/1981) Jojo x Susie
0.1 Shona (09/10/1987) Danny x Sutu
0.1 Ceres (19/09/1990) Imported 2015
0.1 Kuma (06/12/1991) Snowy x Ficha
0.1 Naomi (25/01/2001) Imported 2015
0.1 Cebele (14/11/2017) Samaki x Ceres
0.1 Safiri (16/05/2019) Sule x Shiba
0.1 Adolescent (23/05/2023) Shikamoo x Lisa
0.1 Adolescent (00/00/2024) Shikamoo x Kuma
0.1 Juvenile (00/00/2028) Sule x Ceres
0.1 Juvenile (00/00/2029) Sule x Naomi
0.1 Infant (00/00/2032) Sule x Cebeli

Lisa and Shabani are deceased.

Fumo and Sudi have transferred to Sydney Zoo

Kamili and Sembe have transferred to Rockhampton Zoo.

With Fumo and Sudi removed, Sule holds the alpha position, supported by Shikamoo, who is now the beta.


There are imminent plans to transfer out Lisa and Kuma’s daughters - aged nine and ten; with plans for Ceres and Naomi’s juvenile daughters - aged four and five to follow in five years.

Cebeli has a one year old infant; Safiri is pregnant (due 2034). Breeding will continue through these females and Naomi; with plans to introduce two new females in five years - the first imports since 2015.


Sydney Zoo:

1.0 Jerry (04/12/1995) Imported 2019
1.0 Mani (04/06/2000) Imported 2019
1.0 Fumo (16/10/2013) Shikamoo x Kuma
1.0 Sudi (09/08/2014) Shikamoo x Kuma
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2028) Fumo x Mary
1.0 Infant (00/00/2033) Fumo x Sile

0.1 Babsi (10/09/1984) Imported 2019
0.1 Julchen (14/04/1985) Imported 2019
0.1 Mary (18/12/2002) Imported 2019
0.1 Sile (03/07/2006) Imported 2019
0.1 Juvenile (00/00/2028) Fumo x Sile
0.1 Infant (00/00/2033) Fumo x Mary

Fritz and Charli are deceased; with Fumo and Sudi transferred in to integrate with the troop, which contains only adult females and castrated males.

Mary and Sile have each produced two infants
.

Monarto Safari Park:

1.0 Gombe (04/02/1993) Boyd x Jodie
1.0 Sandali (26/02/1996) Snowy x Sacha
1.0 Enzi (19/10/2015) Sandali x Zombi
1.0 Happy (21/12/2022) Sandali x Hannah
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2025) Sandali x Galatea

0.1 Zombi (15/03/1993) Imported 2010
0.1 Hannah (28/11/1993) Imported 2015
0.1 Galatea (24/02/1999) Imported 2010
0.1 Lani (26/05/2002) Lubutu x Lisa
0.1 Hope (19/02/2019) Tsotsi x Hannah
0.1 Zola (08/09/2019) Tsotsi x Zombi
0.1 Adolescent (00/00/2024) Sandali x Lani
0.1 Infant (00/00/2030) Enzi x Galatea

Boyd is deceased.

Zuri has transferred to Rockhampton.

Enzi assumed the alpha role in 2030.

Hope and Zola remain in the troop as breeding females. Both are pregnant with their first offspring (due 2034).


Rockhampton Zoo:

1.0 Cassius (18/10/1971) Chiko x Mary
1.0 Timmy (09/11/1991) Imported 2019
1.0 Alon (29/01/2008) Imported 2015
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2024) Alon x Sembe
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2026) Alon x Leakey
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2027) Alon x Zuri
1.0 Infant (00/00/2031) Alon x Zuri

0.1 Samantha (01/11/1983) Charlie x Coco
0.1 Leakey (30/12/1994) Imported 2015
0.1 Kamili (02/09/1995) Snowy x Koko
0.1 Sembe (27/02/2008) Lubutu x Shiba
0.1 Zuri (21/08/2012) Sandali x Zombi

Cassius has died.

Capri and Mzuri are exported to Wellington Zoo.

Gandali is exported to Hamilton Zoo.

Kamili and Sembe arrive from Taronga Zoo and Zuri arrives from Monarto Zoo.

Leakey and Sembe are pregnant (due 2034).
Ssss
 
Population Forecasting

My second population forecast will focus on the region’s Common chimpanzee population.

This forecast is a little different from the orangutan forecast as the population is larger; paternity is not always guaranteed; and decisions are often made based on social dynamics.

Nonetheless, I’ll do the best I can.

Facts:

The maximum life expectancy is up to 60 years for females; while males are heavily afflicted by heart disease and late 20’s to early 40’s has been a typical lifespan within the region to date. To date, only two males have reached 50 years of age.

The region currently favours breeding females for the first time in their mid-teens; with females now breeding into their early 40’s. The female dispersal pattern is usually followed.

The subspecies of 99% of the chimpanzees in the region is unknown and the region does not manage them at the subspecies level.

Forecast:

The following is a speculatory forecast based on the above facts.

Australasian Chimpanzee Population 2033 (Forecast)

New Zealand

Hamilton Zoo:

1.0 Gandali (03/02/2020) Alon x Holly
1.0 Infant (00/00/2030) Gandali x Malika
1.0 Infant (00/00/2031) Gandali x Chiku

0.1 Sanda (10/04/1985) Peter x Fimi
0.1 Malika (27/10/2010) Sam x Samantha
0.1 Chiku (15/02/2016) Luka x Sanda
0.1 Kendi (17/12/2020) Luka x Sanda

Lucy, Lucifer and Luka are deceased.

Gandali has been imported as the new breeding male due to his genetic value; and Malika transferred in from Wellington Zoo.

Malika and Chiku have welcomed their first respective infants.


Wellington Zoo:

1.0 Alexis (20/08/1998) Boyd x Cara
1.0 Bakari (11/06/2012) Sam x Sally
1.0 Kitwe (15/11/2014) Sam x Keza
1.0 Akida (01/11/2021) Alexis x Sally
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2023) Alexis x Keza
1.0 Infant (00/00/2033) Bakari x Capri

0.1 Cara (10/09/1981) Jojo x Chiki
0.1 Samantha (25/12/1983) Jojo x Sutu
0.1 Sally (13/01/1985) Jojo x Spitter
0.1 Keza (06/07/1998) Marty x Samantha
0.1 Capri (11/02/2018) Alon x Leakey
0.1 Mzuri (08/12/2021) Alon x Leakey

Jessie is deceased.

Alexis is 35 years old and has conceded leadership of the troop to Bakari.

Following the birth of an infant to Keza in 2023, a breeding hiatus followed until the arrival of the two adolescent females from Rockhampton.

Malika is transferred to Hamilton Zoo.

Capri gives birth to her first infant in 2033; with plans to breed from Keza once more (social dynamics) and to breed from Mzuri as elderly females in the troop pass.


Australia

Taronga Zoo:

1.0 Samaki (27/11/2001) Lubutu x Shiba
1.0 Furahi (28/02/2003) Lubutu x Kuma
1.0 Shikamoo (25/07/2003) Lubutu x Sacha
1.0 Sule (04/04/2008) Lubutu x Sacha
1.0 Liwali (22/09/2014) Samaki x Lisa
1.0 Niambi (07/10/2020) Sule x Naomi
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2023) Shikamoo x Ceres
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2025) Sule x Naomi
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2029) Sule x Kuma

0.1 Sacha (11/06/1980) Jojo x Spitter
0.1 Shiba (22/05/1981) Jojo x Susie
0.1 Shona (09/10/1987) Danny x Sutu
0.1 Ceres (19/09/1990) Imported 2015
0.1 Kuma (06/12/1991) Snowy x Ficha
0.1 Naomi (25/01/2001) Imported 2015
0.1 Cebele (14/11/2017) Samaki x Ceres
0.1 Safiri (16/05/2019) Sule x Shiba
0.1 Adolescent (23/05/2023) Shikamoo x Lisa
0.1 Adolescent (00/00/2024) Shikamoo x Kuma
0.1 Juvenile (00/00/2028) Sule x Ceres
0.1 Juvenile (00/00/2029) Sule x Naomi
0.1 Infant (00/00/2032) Sule x Cebeli

Lisa and Shabani are deceased.

Fumo and Sudi have transferred to Sydney Zoo

Kamili and Sembe have transferred to Rockhampton Zoo.

With Fumo and Sudi removed, Sule holds the alpha position, supported by Shikamoo, who is now the beta.


There are imminent plans to transfer out Lisa and Kuma’s daughters - aged nine and ten; with plans for Ceres and Naomi’s juvenile daughters - aged four and five to follow in five years.

Cebeli has a one year old infant; Safiri is pregnant (due 2034). Breeding will continue through these females and Naomi; with plans to introduce two new females in five years - the first imports since 2015.


Sydney Zoo:

1.0 Jerry (04/12/1995) Imported 2019
1.0 Mani (04/06/2000) Imported 2019
1.0 Fumo (16/10/2013) Shikamoo x Kuma
1.0 Sudi (09/08/2014) Shikamoo x Kuma
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2028) Fumo x Mary
1.0 Infant (00/00/2033) Fumo x Sile

0.1 Babsi (10/09/1984) Imported 2019
0.1 Julchen (14/04/1985) Imported 2019
0.1 Mary (18/12/2002) Imported 2019
0.1 Sile (03/07/2006) Imported 2019
0.1 Juvenile (00/00/2028) Fumo x Sile
0.1 Infant (00/00/2033) Fumo x Mary

Fritz and Charli are deceased; with Fumo and Sudi transferred in to integrate with the troop, which contains only adult females and castrated males.

Mary and Sile have each produced two infants
.

Monarto Safari Park:

1.0 Gombe (04/02/1993) Boyd x Jodie
1.0 Sandali (26/02/1996) Snowy x Sacha
1.0 Enzi (19/10/2015) Sandali x Zombi
1.0 Happy (21/12/2022) Sandali x Hannah
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2025) Sandali x Galatea

0.1 Zombi (15/03/1993) Imported 2010
0.1 Hannah (28/11/1993) Imported 2015
0.1 Galatea (24/02/1999) Imported 2010
0.1 Lani (26/05/2002) Lubutu x Lisa
0.1 Hope (19/02/2019) Tsotsi x Hannah
0.1 Zola (08/09/2019) Tsotsi x Zombi
0.1 Adolescent (00/00/2024) Sandali x Lani
0.1 Infant (00/00/2030) Enzi x Galatea

Boyd is deceased.

Zuri has transferred to Rockhampton.

Enzi assumed the alpha role in 2030.

Hope and Zola remain in the troop as breeding females. Both are pregnant with their first offspring (due 2034).


Rockhampton Zoo:

1.0 Cassius (18/10/1971) Chiko x Mary
1.0 Timmy (09/11/1991) Imported 2019
1.0 Alon (29/01/2008) Imported 2015
1.0 Adolescent (00/00/2024) Alon x Sembe
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2026) Alon x Leakey
1.0 Juvenile (00/00/2027) Alon x Zuri
1.0 Infant (00/00/2031) Alon x Zuri

0.1 Samantha (01/11/1983) Charlie x Coco
0.1 Leakey (30/12/1994) Imported 2015
0.1 Kamili (02/09/1995) Snowy x Koko
0.1 Sembe (27/02/2008) Lubutu x Shiba
0.1 Zuri (21/08/2012) Sandali x Zombi

Cassius has died.

Capri and Mzuri are exported to Wellington Zoo.

Gandali is exported to Hamilton Zoo.

Kamili and Sembe arrive from Taronga Zoo and Zuri arrives from Monarto Zoo.

Leakey and Sembe are pregnant (due 2034).
Ssss
Great list, and I agree with all of the points you made; all of which are realistic and likely to happen.

But if I was to put my five cents in, I would say the following could also potentially happen:

Taronga
Don't see the need to import any individuals going forward, as you stated. Only exports and births should be on the horizon for them.

I agree with the export of Fumo and Sudi. Will certainly help balance out those two families politics wise. It wouldn't be wise to have three of Shiba's sons in the same troop going forward (and her daughters too!), and the same could be said for Kuma who will probably end up having another few offspring too. Sydney is definitely the most realistic option for them.

On the other hand, removing Sembe would make sense to breed her elsewhere. Sending Kamili with her is really the only option; but if you look at Taronga's current demographics, I think you can see why they might want to be retaining Sembe long term (even if she's non breeding). By a decade's time, Taronga could very well have an ageing troop with the only middle aged females being Naomi and Sembe. I can see their thinking if this was the reason for Sembe's retention.

Breeding wise, we can definitely expect to see more infants from Naomi, Ceres and Kuma over the next decade. Cebeli and Safiri could then by breeding as well as early as next decade (effectively replacing Kuma and Ceres who would be entering their 40's).

Monarto
I'm quite sure the plan is to retain Zuri long term and eventually breed from her. Zola and Hope are close in age (and both very valuable females), so would be a perfect fit to send over to Wellington (who would be in need of new genetics).

In compensation as part of your plan, Monarto could then instead receive Capri and Mzuri from Rockhampton. Or instead, they could be swapped directly for Zola and Hope who would be sent to Rockhampton instead, with Wellington instead importing new females from overseas.
 
Lisa's Infant has been named

According to @Abbey in the Taronga news thread, Lisa's female infant (born 23/05/2023) has been named 'Lemba'.

A nice, fitting name for Lisa's latest and most likely, final infant.

Lemba Name Meaning

Lemba is an African name meaning “green tobacco leaves.”

This is Lisa’s fifth infant and looking back on her reproductive history, it’s nice to see all her offspring have had L names.

Though it’s the naming convention the zoo use, the offspring of Spitter, Shiba and Sacha were named Gombe (1988), Kibale (1990) and Kike (1991) respectively. Aside from every zoo having a Gombe (Jane Goodall association), I’d assume they feared a troop overrun with S names.

Lisa’s Infants:

1.0 Lobo
Born at Taronga Zoo 26/06/1989
Died at Taronga Zoo 28/11/1996
Sire: Sonny

1.0 Lubutu
Born at Taronga Zoo 05/06/1993
Died at Taronga Zoo 03/12/2019
Sire: Snowy

0.1 Lani
Born at Taronga Zoo 25/05/2002
Sent to Monarto Zoo 02/03/2018
Sire: Lubutu

1.0 Liwali
Born at Taronga Zoo 22/09/2014
Still at Taronga Zoo
Sire: Samaki

0.1 Lemba
Born at Taronga Zoo 23/05/2023
Still at Taronga Zoo
Sire: Unknown
 
Taronga share details on Lemba’s name:

Let us formally introduce Lemba

Taronga has a long running partnership with the Jane Goodall Institute to help support the in-situ conservation initiatives at Tchimpounga Chimpanzee Sanctuary in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Some of Taronga's keepers, veterinarians and staff have had the privilege to volunteer their time and expertise and worked alongside individuals at Tchimpounga, where one such Chimpanzee in care touched them all. Lemba, a female chimpanzee in care, had a particularly traumatic early life, contracting Polio and causing paralysis at the hands of the illegal pet trade, before she was rescued and cared for by the Jane Goodall Institute.

In honour of this strong chimpanzee survivor and Taronga’s long relationship with Jane Goodall Institute Australia, our Primate keeping team have dedicated the name of this Tchimpounga individual to Taronga Zoo's newest member to the chimpanzee community, daughter to Lisa, ‘Lemba'.
 
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