Australian Asian Elephant Population 2025

I’m hopeful Werribee will look at getting their three viable cows pregnant next year, with them giving birth as their calves are turning five/six. That will avoid the possibility of Roi-Yim breaking any records, with a mating to his mother or grandmother being highly undesirable.

By the time the cows are cycling again following the births (approximately 10-12 months post-partum), I anticipate Roi-Yim will be spending most of his time with Luk Chai.

To date, Gung and Luk Chai also remain the only bulls to have sired calves naturally in the region. Hopefully Putra Mas will join this line up in the near future; and long term, Pathi Harn. With the urgency of conceiving her first calf behind her, Dubbo will have more time to play with in regards to Anjalee conceiving again.
It'll be intriguing as to how Werribee will end up managing Roi Yim's transition our of the matriarchal herd eventually.

In the wild bulls move out of their natal herds at a far more advanced age, usually around the ages of 10 to 12 which coincides with their first periods of musth. So it'll be interesting as to whether Werribee will be open to replicating this natural transition out of the herd. The size of the paddocks will certainly be valuable in allowing Roi to have his own space and become more independent, whilst maintaining a presence nearby the herd.

In the past Melbourne were really only forced to separate Ongard and Man Jai due to the cows growing intolerant of them quite early on. They would chase the bulls away - which in the case of Werribee, could very well occur, however Roi would have plenty of space in that situation to move off on his own.
 
It'll be intriguing as to how Werribee will end up managing Roi Yim's transition our of the matriarchal herd eventually.

In the wild bulls move out of their natal herds at a far more advanced age, usually around the ages of 10 to 12 which coincides with their first periods of musth. So it'll be interesting as to whether Werribee will be open to replicating this natural transition out of the herd. The size of the paddocks will certainly be valuable in allowing Roi to have his own space and become more independent, whilst maintaining a presence nearby the herd.

In the past Melbourne were really only forced to separate Ongard and Man Jai due to the cows growing intolerant of them quite early on. They would chase the bulls away - which in the case of Werribee, could very well occur, however Roi would have plenty of space in that situation to move off on his own.

Although they’ll ultimately be led by the cows, I’m inclined to believe the transition of Roi-Yim out of the female herd will occur around 7-8 years. Elephants mature faster in captivity and so this seems to speed the process up in that regard. Taronga’s cows tired of Gung when he was eight years old, which is similar to the age Ongard was at Melbourne when he was ousted out.

The increased space may well diffuse tensions, though if positive relations continues between Luk Chai and Roi-Yim, it’d be of greater benefit for Roi-Yim to spend time with his father (outside of Luk Chai’s musth period).

When I visited in late 2023, Luk Chai was in an adolescent musth cycle, but wasn’t having full musth cycles, so we can assume a similar timeframe of development for Roi-Yim.
 
Although they’ll ultimately be led by the cows, I’m inclined to believe the transition of Roi-Yim out of the female herd will occur around 7-8 years. Elephants mature faster in captivity and so this seems to speed the process up in that regard. Taronga’s cows tired of Gung when he was eight years old, which is similar to the age Ongard was at Melbourne when he was ousted out.

The increased space may well diffuse tensions, though if positive relations continues between Luk Chai and Roi-Yim, it’d be of greater benefit for Roi-Yim to spend time with his father (outside of Luk Chai’s musth period).

When I visited in late 2023, Luk Chai was in an adolescent musth cycle, but wasn’t having full musth cycles, so we can assume a similar timeframe of development for Roi-Yim.
The EEP now recommends zoos to at least be able to retain any bull calves on site until about the age of eight, which for most zoos, means bulls are remaining within their natal herds for far longer these days than perhaps previously when they would be shifted out due to high demand.

Gung was unrelated to the Taronga cows, so it's no surprise he was ousted at the age of eight when he became too rambunctious. Ongard was actually separated far earlier, he began to spend time with his father at the age of three (around the time Man Jai was born). He wasn't separated permanently, as he still spent time with the main herd for the initial few years and slept with the herd overnight. But he still moved out fairly early.

I can certainly see a point where Roi Yim is transitioning out of the herd, and rotating his time with Luk Chai and the main herd. I guess it will all depend on how well he'll be tolerated in the long term, but I don't foresee Werribee separating him off as he matures without reason.
 
The EEP now recommends zoos to at least be able to retain any bull calves on site until about the age of eight, which for most zoos, means bulls are remaining within their natal herds for far longer these days than perhaps previously when they would be shifted out due to high demand.

Gung was unrelated to the Taronga cows, so it's no surprise he was ousted at the age of eight when he became too rambunctious. Ongard was actually separated far earlier, he began to spend time with his father at the age of three (around the time Man Jai was born). He wasn't separated permanently, as he still spent time with the main herd for the initial few years and slept with the herd overnight. But he still moved out fairly early.

I can certainly see a point where Roi Yim is transitioning out of the herd, and rotating his time with Luk Chai and the main herd. I guess it will all depend on how well he'll be tolerated in the long term, but I don't foresee Werribee separating him off as he matures without reason.

By eight years old, Gung had become highly motivated to breed the cows and was sparring continuously with Porntip and Pak Boon, creating unease in the herd. With Thong Dee’s calf due the following year, it was necessary to transition him out.

The matriarchal herd barn at Werribee has movable walls, which will be valuable in assisting Roi-Yim in his transition out of the herd. He can remain in close proximity to the cows, while having his own space.

Werribee are fortunate in that Luk Chai can provide the mentorship Roi-Yim needs. I anticipate from the moment the next cohort of calves arrive, Roi-Yim’s time with the herd will drastically decrease. The cows will be protective of the new calves and less tolerant of any adolescent rowdiness from Roi-Yim.
 
Capacity of the Werribee facility:


It’s mentioned in the video that the capacity of the Werribee facility is up to 20 elephants. It’s been previously mentioned the facility could house two mature bulls in the adjacent bull paddocks, partially screen off from each other; so the capacity could see the matriarchal herd grow to 18, including juvenile and adolescent bulls that would ideally cohabit with the mature mentor bulls as they mature.

The matriarchal herd currently numbers eight elephants and with an anticipated second cohort of calves, would grow to 11 elephants. With this in mind, we can expect breeding to be more restricted than we anticipated. Even if the second cohort follows circa 2028 (around 5-6 years after the last), it wouldn’t surprise me from there to see birth intervals extended to 7-8 years like they are at Dubbo; and also for females to retire from breeding earlier.

In line with the above, I anticipate Dokkoon will be retired after the birth of her next calf; as will Num-Oi, especially if she produces another daughter. Mali, Aiyara and Kati would then produce the next cohort; presumably eight years after Mali next calves, which would see Aiyara and Kati produce their first calves in their early to mid-teens.

EEHV is of course something to be aware of. An outbreak could potentially decimate the younger demographic in the herd at any time; but the team are extremely proactive in testing, with results returned within a six hour window and there’s been encouraging results with the vaccine trial overseas.
 
Capacity of the Werribee facility:


It’s mentioned in the video that the capacity of the Werribee facility is up to 20 elephants. It’s been previously mentioned the facility could house two mature bulls in the adjacent bull paddocks, partially screen off from each other; so the capacity could see the matriarchal herd grow to 18, including juvenile and adolescent bulls that would ideally cohabit with the mature mentor bulls as they mature.

The matriarchal herd currently numbers eight elephants and with an anticipated second cohort of calves, would grow to 11 elephants. With this in mind, we can expect breeding to be more restricted than we anticipated. Even if the second cohort follows circa 2028 (around 5-6 years after the last), it wouldn’t surprise me from there to see birth intervals extended to 7-8 years like they are at Dubbo; and also for females to retire from breeding earlier.

In line with the above, I anticipate Dokkoon will be retired after the birth of her next calf; as will Num-Oi, especially if she produces another daughter. Mali, Aiyara and Kati would then produce the next cohort; presumably eight years after Mali next calves, which would see Aiyara and Kati produce their first calves in their early to mid-teens.

EEHV is of course something to be aware of. An outbreak could potentially decimate the younger demographic in the herd at any time; but the team are extremely proactive in testing, with results returned within a six hour window and there’s been encouraging results with the vaccine trial overseas.
I would have thought rather than just retire any breeding females at Werribee a transfer to Monarto would have been a next logical step to try and establish a breeding herd for Monarto.
 
I would have thought rather than just retire any breeding females at Werribee a transfer to Monarto would have been a next logical step to try and establish a breeding herd for Monarto.

If Pak Boon fails to breed (or only produces sons), then I agree a split of the Werribee herd is a strong likelihood long term. Pak Boon is currently Monarto’s only hope of generating succession and she’s 33 years old.

For now, Monarto are struggling to integrate four cows from three herds, with no guarantee they’ll be able to do so. It could eventually reach the stage where they resign to one of them living alongside the others as the best they can achieve, which will taken up additional space. Then if Pak Boon produces bull calves, that will take up further space. With this in mind, I don’t anticipate they’ll be any new additions within the lifetime of the four existing cows (who could be around for the next 2-3 decades).
 
We have to make sure Putra Mas is willing to breed naturally first. :)

Pairing Putra Mas with a proven breeding female will be a good way towards acertaining this. If natural breeding does not occur, my hope is that Monarto would consider AI, though there’s uncertainty over whether Pak Boon could be trained for this.

Either way, it’d be a great shame to lose Pak Boon’s genes from the regional population.
 
Capacity of the Werribee facility:


It’s mentioned in the video that the capacity of the Werribee facility is up to 20 elephants. It’s been previously mentioned the facility could house two mature bulls in the adjacent bull paddocks, partially screen off from each other; so the capacity could see the matriarchal herd grow to 18, including juvenile and adolescent bulls that would ideally cohabit with the mature mentor bulls as they mature.

The matriarchal herd currently numbers eight elephants and with an anticipated second cohort of calves, would grow to 11 elephants. With this in mind, we can expect breeding to be more restricted than we anticipated. Even if the second cohort follows circa 2028 (around 5-6 years after the last), it wouldn’t surprise me from there to see birth intervals extended to 7-8 years like they are at Dubbo; and also for females to retire from breeding earlier.

In line with the above, I anticipate Dokkoon will be retired after the birth of her next calf; as will Num-Oi, especially if she produces another daughter. Mali, Aiyara and Kati would then produce the next cohort; presumably eight years after Mali next calves, which would see Aiyara and Kati produce their first calves in their early to mid-teens.

EEHV is of course something to be aware of. An outbreak could potentially decimate the younger demographic in the herd at any time; but the team are extremely proactive in testing, with results returned within a six hour window and there’s been encouraging results with the vaccine trial overseas.
Having visited the facilities and seen the matriarchal herd barn for myself, I would be surprised if even eighteen elephants could be accommodated there without it being crowded. It's not the largest at all, and the main space they have on display is probably just a little larger than Melbourne's barn (if all the stalls were combined). Fifteen or so (realistically maybe even a little less) would probably be more of an accurate assumption imo.

Accounting for a few juvenile bulls who will also be accommodated within the bull barn and grouped together in a social group, alongside one or two mature bulls, that would indeed take the number of the facility up to twenty.

Assuming the same cows breed in the next cohort later this decade, the herd will then number about ten elephants, accounting for Roi Yim's transition out of the herd. But what's really needed imo is a designated bachelor facility.

Whilst Werribee and Dubbo to an extent will be able to accommodate bulls bred for the next few decades (also accounting for exports), this isn't feasible long term when you consider the lifespan of this species and the eventual less desirability for exports via overseas regions.

Monarto is a facility that will hopefully be able to step in, in a few decades time and begin to house bulls - and I imagine the long term goal of them as a facility will be to operate like Denver in the USA, housing a large group of bulls of all ages that are surplus to the breeding program.
 
Having visited the facilities and seen the matriarchal herd barn for myself, I would be surprised if even eighteen elephants could be accommodated there without it being crowded. It's not the largest at all, and the main space they have on display is probably just a little larger than Melbourne's barn (if all the stalls were combined). Fifteen or so (realistically maybe even a little less) would probably be more of an accurate assumption imo.

Accounting for a few juvenile bulls who will also be accommodated within the bull barn and grouped together in a social group, alongside one or two mature bulls, that would indeed take the number of the facility up to twenty.

Assuming the same cows breed in the next cohort later this decade, the herd will then number about ten elephants, accounting for Roi Yim's transition out of the herd. But what's really needed imo is a designated bachelor facility.

Whilst Werribee and Dubbo to an extent will be able to accommodate bulls bred for the next few decades (also accounting for exports), this isn't feasible long term when you consider the lifespan of this species and the eventual less desirability for exports via overseas regions.

Monarto is a facility that will hopefully be able to step in, in a few decades time and begin to house bulls - and I imagine the long term goal of them as a facility will be to operate like Denver in the USA, housing a large group of bulls of all ages that are surplus to the breeding program.

I really like the idea of Monarto establishing themselves as a bachelor facility. As much as I’d like to see a third multigenerational breeding herd, I agree what the region needs is a bachelor facility and it would be of great assistance to the breeding programmes at Dubbo and Werribee.

Furthermore, I recall @Swanson02 mentioning consideration had been given to acquiring young bulls for Putra Mas to mentor if breeding with Pak Boon is unsuccessful. This could be Monarto’s contingency plan is natural breeding fails to yield surviving female calves.

Even assuming their bulls enter the breeding programme in the next decade or so, I anticipate further support would be provided by Sydney Zoo, who lack the space for a breeding herd.

Long term, I know a number of us would like to see Dubbo expand their facilities, beginning with this long-awaited herd barn. It would be invaluable in regards to supporting succession of the herd, which may continue to rest on Kanlaya if Anjalee’s calf is a bull.
 
I really like the idea of Monarto establishing themselves as a bachelor facility. As much as I’d like to see a third multigenerational breeding herd, I agree what the region needs is a bachelor facility and it would be of great assistance to the breeding programmes at Dubbo and Werribee.

Furthermore, I recall @Swanson02 mentioning consideration had been given to acquiring young bulls for Putra Mas to mentor if breeding with Pak Boon is unsuccessful. This could be Monarto’s contingency plan is natural breeding fails to yield surviving female calves.

Even assuming their bulls enter the breeding programme in the next decade or so, I anticipate further support would be provided by Sydney Zoo, who lack the space for a breeding herd.

Long term, I know a number of us would like to see Dubbo expand their facilities, beginning with this long-awaited herd barn. It would be invaluable in regards to supporting succession of the herd, which may continue to rest on Kanlaya if Anjalee’s calf is a bull.
Monarto has the space to do both if so desired if it's one thing they have more than any other zoo in land area. Having a 3rd zoo holding a breeding herd would benefit the overall regional program holding a wider range of bloodlines especially if calfs can be produced by Putra Mas, He is the ace in the pack as far as Monarto is concerned!
 
I really like the idea of Monarto establishing themselves as a bachelor facility. As much as I’d like to see a third multigenerational breeding herd, I agree what the region needs is a bachelor facility and it would be of great assistance to the breeding programmes at Dubbo and Werribee.

Furthermore, I recall @Swanson02 mentioning consideration had been given to acquiring young bulls for Putra Mas to mentor if breeding with Pak Boon is unsuccessful. This could be Monarto’s contingency plan is natural breeding fails to yield surviving female calves.

Even assuming their bulls enter the breeding programme in the next decade or so, I anticipate further support would be provided by Sydney Zoo, who lack the space for a breeding herd.

Long term, I know a number of us would like to see Dubbo expand their facilities, beginning with this long-awaited herd barn. It would be invaluable in regards to supporting succession of the herd, which may continue to rest on Kanlaya if Anjalee’s calf is a bull.
If Monarto do elect to transition into a bachelor facility in the long term - their current complex could allow them to hold four bulls at least depending on the holding facilities they currently have.

With Sydney also having the ability to hold a pair of bulls, this would be incredibly valuable in the long term to assist the wider breeding programs at Dubbo and Werribee, who also have the space to accommodate a few bulls of their own respectively.
Monarto has the space to do both if so desired if it's one thing they have more than any other zoo in land area. Having a 3rd zoo holding a breeding herd would benefit the overall regional program holding a wider range of bloodlines especially if calfs can be produced by Putra Mas, He is the ace in the pack as far as Monarto is concerned!
They do - but since they're a privately operated facility it would require a lot of further donations, which is achievable, but not something I see Monarto investing in at least within the next decade or so.

At the moment they'll look to making the most out of the current facilities - they have five paddock areas, so if they manage to integrate the cows (or at least Burma with the Taronga duo), they could look at acquiring another younger bull or two from Dubbo/Werribee in five to ten years, assuming they have space in the planned bull barn. That would allow Putra Mas to at least serve as a social mentor to them, giving him a fulfilling role whilst AI might be considered still (in the event Pak Boon doesn't conceive).
 
I’ve just seen a video of what looks like Pathi-Harn attempting to mount Thong Dee at Dubbo. Unfortunately I have lost it.

I’d be interested to see the video if you find it, but it’s nothing new. When Luk Chai was still on site, both young bulls would have social time with Porntip, Thong Dee and their calves; and both Luk Chai and Pathi Harn were observed mounting the cows.

Dubbo have continued these contact sessions, timed for when the cows aren’t cycling, to provide enrichment to both the bull and the matriarchal herd.
 
I’d be interested to see the video if you find it, but it’s nothing new. When Luk Chai was still on site, both young bulls would have social time with Porntip, Thong Dee and their calves; and both Luk Chai and Pathi Harn were observed mounting the cows.

Dubbo have continued these contact sessions, timed for when the cows aren’t cycling, to provide enrichment to both the bull and the matriarchal herd.
Thanks for the information! I didn’t know this, from the video I saw it didn’t look successful enough for conception anyway.
 
Thanks for the information! I didn’t know this, from the video I saw it didn’t look successful enough for conception anyway.

You’re welcome. If Thong Dee wasn’t cycling, she may not have cooperated despite Pathi Harn’s efforts. Nonetheless, it’s good practice and it’s beneficial for Kanlaya to have experience around a bull.

The region has a strong emphasis on exposing young elephants to reproductive behaviour and it clearly paid off with Luk Chai, who often observed Gung mounting the cows.
 
I’ve just seen a video of what looks like Pathi-Harn attempting to mount Thong Dee at Dubbo. Unfortunately I have lost it.
That's fascinating.

It's an unknown whether Thong Dee will get another chance to breed, but it's approaching nine years since she last birthed so time is really running out.

As has been discussed, pairing her again with Gung would make little sense considering they already have two sons; one of which is already a successful bull.

So with that in mind, Pathi Harn would be the obvious candidate to sire a calf with her, if the plan was to allow Thong Dee to have another calf. A daughter would be good to continue her matriline.
 
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