COVID-19 around the world

[Simon Hampel]

Given the diversity of our membership - I thought it would be interesting to discuss the impacts of COVID-19 around the world.

There is quite a bit of difference in infection rates and death rates - some countries had large infections early on and so their infection rates and death rates are higher.

Other countries (such as NZ and Australia) were fortunately late in their infection rates and had the benefit of observing the issues in other countries - especially in Europe - and locked down relatively early and have so far managed to avoid significant issue. The fact that we are also islands helps immensely here too. The only thing that really let us down was those damned cruise ships

I was trying to point out on another site that you can't compare raw numbers of infections and deaths without considering population size. So I decided to create a table with data showing infection rates and death rates per head of population so we can start to compare more meaningful data.

I thought people on ZooChat might find it interesting too.

All population data comes from Wikipedia, while case and death data comes from the John Hopkins University COVID-19 tracker website.

I originally started with about 8 countries, and was surprised to see the US so far down the list. But then someone pointed out that infections are concentrated in certain areas - so I started breaking the data down by state, which gave a much more accurate picture of the situation. I've included all US states with more than 20,000 cases.

Here is my table sorted by cases per million population:



... as you can see, New York is by far the worst hit - well over 1% of the population has now been infected. Only New Jersey comes close to matching that infection rate.

Louisiana and Massachusetts also far exceed the infection rates of Spain, while Switzerland and Belgium have more cases per head of population than Italy does!

It's not really fair to break the US down by state but then compare it to other entire countries, but that's all the data I have available. Only the US, China, Canada and Australia have state/province level data on the John Hopkins Uni website.

It's also important to understand that infection rates are largely determined by the amount of testing that is being done. In many countries - there would undoubtedly be a high number of undetected cases, especially amongst the younger population who may be asymptomatic and thus won't know to go and get tested. So while

Here is the table sorted by death rate per head of population:



The key thing to remember here is that it can take some time for an infected person to deteriorate in health and die. That means that recently infected people who are going to die will take some time to show up in the stats - and countries which were late to have high rates of infection won't necessarily have a death rate to match yet.

Population demographics will also have an impact on death rates. Areas with an older population will be worse off, as will areas with populations that already have poor health.

Again, New York is by far the worst affected area - but surprisingly, Belgium and Spain are now far worse than Italy on a per-capita basis.

One other factor to consider is how many of the infected people die. Again, this will be impacted by the amount of testing - more tests = higher detection rates. But I've read that some countries are not counting deaths the same way - in some cases only hospital based deaths are counted and in others, deaths from factors other than the respiratory COVID-19 aren't necessarily counted as a COVID-19 death - so this data isn't necessarily accurate for comparison purposes between countries.

So this final table is the same data sorted by deaths per case.



It's the European countries which are seeing the highest death rates - but I suspect there is a combination of demographics and differences in measurement which are impacting this data.

 

[Simon Hampel]

Anyway - this thread wasn't intended to just look at statistics. I figured it would be a good chance to discuss other major factors at a country level (please try and keep politics out of it as much as possible though).

I'm wondering whether there have been circumstances or events in other countries which have lead to mass-infections from a single source?

Here in Australia, we had the Ruby Princess, a cruise ship that docked in New Zealand before coming to Australia. Despite restrictions in place and some of the passengers reporting symptoms, 2,700 passengers were allowed to disembark - many of whom then travelled to other states of Australia and 900 were international travellers.

This cruise liner has undoubtedly been responsible for a significant percentage of our cases and deaths in Australia - over 600 confirmed cases and more than 20 deaths.

There is a criminal investigation underway as to the circumstances around how the passengers were allowed to disembark rather than being placed in quarantine.

There are still 1,000 crew on board, 128 of whom have tested positive so far. The ship is docked at a port south of Sydney while the police investigation continues.

 

[lowland anoa]

@Simon Hampel, the same thing is happening in the river that separates my area (Fife) from Lothian (where Edinburgh is). A cruise ship is currently docked in the Forth, after a few crew members tested positive for COVID-19, with more crew in quarantine on the ship. Although Fife has only 446 cases of the virus, people are worrying since a lot of our key workers work in Edinburgh, potentially bringing the virus with them, to spread when on essential travel.

 

[Jungle Man]

Something similar happened here, at the first days of the coronavirus arriving in Panama, a teacher went to USA without telling anyone and got infected. He went to cities across the country because it was Carnival times. He infected some of his teacher friends and most of them are dead by now, including patient zero. They infected children, family and the virus got out of control. Now we have 4000 cases and 110 deaths.

 

[lintworm]

It should be noted that each country has its own way of reporting cases and deaths and test rates vary tremendously, so one is really comparing apples and pears here (as the saying goes in the Netherlands).

It is worth noting that Belgium is one of the very few countries that also includes probable covid-19 fatalities in their tallies, which gives them very high death rates (but probably more realistic). Looking at statistics, they found that in the Netherlands probably half of the COVID-19 has gone unnoticed.

Deaths per case in the Netherlands are very high, but testing is very scarce. Recent tests of blood donors found that 3% of all donors had covid-19 antibodies, indicating that possibly up to half a million people have contracted the disease. I don't know how representative blood donors are of the general population (there could well be relatively many health care workers in that pool...).

 

[Chlidonias]

New Zealand is aiming to eradicate within our borders, not just slow it down. We have a 4-level system with level 4 being full lockdown apart for essential services, and at the other end level 1 is where the virus is contained within NZ (but not overseas) and life is basically "carefully-normal". We're in level 4 now. Best case scenario is level 4 for a month, level 3 for a month, then levels 1 and 2 for 8-10 months. Obviously the lengths of time for the top two levels in particular will depend on the infection stats. The borders will likely remain completely closed for at least the rest of the year. We're lucky in that we're on an isolated island group, and we're a farming country so can remain self-sufficient although of course there are any number of items which would become restricted in a long-term scenario. Most likely we will (eventually) first open up travel to Australia and the Pacific islands, depending on their situations and security of their borders. Opening up to the rest of the world will probably take a lot longer.

Our new cases are dropping (only eight today), and "only" eleven people have died so far. All were over 70 with underlying health issues, and the majority of the deaths (seven people) were sadly all from a single rest-home.

 

[Jana]

The most important factor for Czechia was spring break that many locals used to go skiing in Austrian and Italian Alps. It resulted in +500 individually imported cases within 1-2 weeks. Most people who went skiing were families from middle/upper class, younger adults or students in good physical shape. They came back usually with only mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all) and didn´t think much about it and simply went back to work, into university dormitories, took part in countryside balls/dance events or visited their grans in care homes and it started to spread like steppe fire.

Right now our country resembles an isolated island. Foreigners cant come in and Czechs are prohibited to leave. Only trucks can cross border checkpoints. And everybody wears face masks.

Thanks to decreasing daily count of new cases (R=0,7 today) we started to lift some measures and we now have a 5-step plan how to get back to almost-normal-life in June. But travelling abroad is still hotly discussed and decision or timetable is not set. First we were told we can forget holiday trips this summer. Now, tone is changing and it looks like some countries might open for our tourists and vice versa (under special rules), namely Croatia and Slovakia.

Our future progress will be decided by "chytrá karanténa" (smart quarantine) project. The old well known system of test-track-isolate run by public health officers is being improved and reinforced by army and volunteers, using new IT solutions and apps. When fully running at the end of this month, its target is to eradicate this virus.

 

[Andrew Swales]

The most important factor for Czechia was spring break that many locals used to go skiing in Austrian and Italian Alps. It resulted in +500 individually imported cases within 1-2 weeks. Most people who went skiing were families from middle/upper class, younger adults or students in good physical shape. They came back usually with only mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all) and didn´t think much about it and simply went back to work, into university dormitories, took part in countryside balls/dance events or visited their grans in care homes and it started to spread like steppe fire.

Right now our country resembles an isolated island. Foreigners cant come in and Czechs are prohibited to leave. Only trucks can cross border checkpoints. And everybody wears face masks.

Thanks to decreasing daily count of new cases (R=0,7 today) we started to lift some measures and we now have a 5-step plan how to get back to almost-normal-life in June. But travelling abroad is still hotly discussed and decision or timetable is not set. First we were told we can forget holiday trips this summer. Now, tone is changing and it looks like some countries might open for our tourists and vice versa (under special rules), namely Croatia and Slovakia.

Our future progress will be decided by "chytrá karanténa" (smart quarantine) project. The old well known system of test-track-isolate run by public health officers is being improved and reinforced by army and volunteers, using new IT solutions and apps. When fully running at the end of this month, its target is to eradicate this virus.

This is positive news Jana, and gives us in other countries some hope - I think, I hope....

The issue here in the UK is that our Government is doing it differently, and recording many more deaths than are actually proven (as with Belgium) presumably to scare the public into co-operation. We do not know if they will use the models developed in other countries, and a public lock-down until September is being predicted.

The UK lock-down is specifically to help the NHS, and does not appear to be linked to actual cases and deaths, which along with Belgium are one of the highest of any country, despite one of the the strictest lock-downs. Much of the economy will be sacrificed by September, and we have seen Colchester Zoo's recent announcement that they will close then, if it happens. This is the first so far as I know. It may not be the case for some smaller collections, as I have said before they are very resilient, have not been profligate and require much less funding.

We have heard today from the UK Government that they are not helping zoos any further than they have already done (limited to a promise of £25,000 for the smaller ones which has not been delivered yet), and that they recommend zoos should cut their costs and claim off their insurance!

Eradication is an admirable target for 'island' countries like CZ or New Zealand; but unless is is permanent and complete physical and economic isolation, all it takes is one person to bring it back and you start all over again.

 

[Simon Hampel]

It should be noted that each country has its own way of reporting cases and deaths and test rates vary tremendously, so one is really comparing apples and pears here (as the saying goes in the Netherlands).

It is worth noting that Belgium is one of the very few countries that also includes probable covid-19 fatalities in their tallies, which gives them very high death rates (but probably more realistic). Looking at statistics, they found that in the Netherlands probably half of the COVID-19 has gone unnoticed.

Deaths per case in the Netherlands are very high, but testing is very scarce. Recent tests of blood donors found that 3% of all donors had covid-19 antibodies, indicating that possibly up to half a million people have contracted the disease. I don't know how representative blood donors are of the general population (there could well be relatively many health care workers in that pool...).

Yes, that's what made the statistics quite interesting - because it clearly showed anomalies which I thought shouldn't be there.

The difference in testing rates and methodologies and the differences in reporting deaths really makes it difficult (if not impossible) to accurately compare between countries.

By crunching the numbers it shows how meaningless the "headline" numbers that get quoted really are.

 

[Simon Hampel]

New Zealand is aiming to eradicate within our borders, not just slow it down. We have a 4-level system with level 4 being full lockdown apart for essential services, and at the other end level 1 is where the virus is contained within NZ (but not overseas) and life is basically "carefully-normal". We're in level 4 now. Best case scenario is level 4 for a month, level 3 for a month, then levels 1 and 2 for 8-10 months. Obviously the lengths of time for the top two levels in particular will depend on the infection stats. The borders will likely remain completely closed for at least the rest of the year. We're lucky in that we're on an isolated island group, and we're a farming country so can remain self-sufficient although of course there are any number of items which would become restricted in a long-term scenario. Most likely we will (eventually) first open up travel to Australia and the Pacific islands, depending on their situations and security of their borders. Opening up to the rest of the world will probably take a lot longer.

Our new cases are dropping (only eight today), and "only" eleven people have died so far. All were over 70 with underlying health issues, and the majority of the deaths (seven people) were sadly all from a single rest-home.

There is a lot of excitement about the reopening of the Australia - New Zealand border, especially given how many New Zealanders live here and how many Australians have family or business in New Zealand.

However, I'm not sure that NZ's eradication policy is compatible with a reopening unless it is coupled with mandatory isolation periods, which means the border isn't really open - since you can't realistically travel there for business. I don't think eradication is realistically achievable in Australia at this point.

 

[Chlidonias]

However, I'm not sure that NZ's eradication policy is compatible with a reopening unless it is coupled with mandatory isolation periods, which means the border isn't really open - since you can't realistically travel there for business. I don't think eradication is realistically achievable in Australia at this point.

The way I understand it is that the borders would only be opened to cross-Tasman travel (for regular people) if Australia was free of the virus or/and once there is a vaccine. Opening the border to Australia is not something which would be happening any time soon - it is in the future, hopefully next year, but it would depend on how Australia goes in fighting the virus. Once a vaccine becomes available, and (theoretically) everyone in our countries is immunised, then cross-Tasman travel will be much more possible.

Everyone who is coming in from now on (for the "near" future) is going to be put into government quarantine for two weeks. They have a number of hotels taken over for this purpose. This is to allow for New Zealanders being brought home.

Of course, in the current world situation, events and scenarios pretty much change daily .

 

[MRJ]

The Australian policy was to "flatten" the curve so our medical facilities were not overwhelmed. Because of that we are at level 3 lockdown while New Zealand, which aimed for elimination, is at level 4.

I think everyone, not least the government, are surprised as to how well it has all gone here. People are now talking about the possibility of eliminating it from Australia over the next month or two.

Like New Zealand nobody can enter Australia without going through 2 weeks quarantine, currently in hotels. Some states have also introduced quarantine for people coming from other states. So some people coming back to Australia to one state, have done their 2 weeks then have to do 2 weeks when they get back to their home state. Non-citizens and non- permanent residents are now prohibited entry at all and we are not allowed to leave the country unless essential also.

I don't see international travel opening up till a vaccine, or at least an effective treatment, becomes available. But if both Australia and New Zealand can eliminate the virus, it would make sense to open up travel between the two countries.

 

[Andrew Swales]

Yes, that's what made the statistics quite interesting - because it clearly showed anomalies which I thought shouldn't be there.

The difference in testing rates and methodologies and the differences in reporting deaths really makes it difficult (if not impossible) to accurately compare between countries.

By crunching the numbers it shows how meaningless the "headline" numbers that get quoted really are.

Absolutely.

Unfortunately this huge range of data collection and reporting methods, also means that the cycle of infection, lock-down, release and recovery cannot be compared one country to another, as the base statistics are useless, albeit interesting.

Australia/NZ are able to look forward hopefully; German friends are visiting zoos this coming week following their re-opening; but in the UK we face predicted lock-down until September, with economic collapse of much of the zoo industry along with other sectors. Electricity supply contracts are already being terminated, banks are not following government instructions and the insurance industry is wobbling... The Government has now stated that it will not help zoos any further than the £10-£25,000 promised (but not delivered yet) to some of the smaller ones. This is in the form of a grant designed to help hotels and guest houses, but because of the wording appears to apply to zoos too. Local Authorities have taken the Central Government funds, but are still deciding IF they will actually distribute them, as instructed.

In the meantime our banks are still taking payments from our over-draft, and Government itself is taking all the normal monthly YE/NI/Pension contributions. This month alone the latter amounted to more than the total we have raised through CrowdFunding - we've not even had the short-term holiday we were promised...!

Germany and CZ will need lots of space for UK animals if and when some of our larger Zoos close in the autumn.

 

[Andrew Swales]

Absolutely.

Unfortunately this huge range of data collection and reporting methods, also means that the cycle of infection, lock-down, release and recovery cannot be compared one country to another, as the base statistics are useless, albeit interesting.

Australia/NZ are able to look forward hopefully; German friends are visiting zoos this coming week following their re-opening; but in the UK we face predicted lock-down until September, with economic collapse of much of the zoo industry along with other sectors. Electricity supply contracts are already being terminated, banks are not following government instructions and the insurance industry is wobbling... The Government has now stated that it will not help zoos any further than the £10-£25,000 promised (but not delivered yet) to some of the smaller ones. This is in the form of a grant designed to help hotels and guest houses, but because of the wording appears to apply to zoos too. Local Authorities have taken the Central Government funds, but are still deciding IF they will actually distribute them, as instructed.

In the meantime our banks are still taking payments from our over-draft, and Government itself is taking all the normal monthly YE/NI/Pension contributions. This month alone the latter amounted to more than the total we have raised through CrowdFunding - we've not even had the short-term holiday we were promised...!

Germany and CZ will need lots of space for UK animals if and when some of our larger Zoos close in the autumn.

Sorry for the PAYE typo - outside the 'edit window' - again!

 

[Andrew Swales]

I have just received (and completed) an on-line survey from the East of England Tourist Board, asking for opinions regarding the effects of the current lock-down in the UK being extended until December.

 

[Shorts]

In the meantime our banks are still taking payments from our over-draft, and Government itself is taking all the normal monthly YE/NI/Pension contributions. This month alone the latter amounted to more than the total we have raised through CrowdFunding - we've not even had the short-term holiday we were promised...!

Without wanting to be patronising, to get any PAYE/NI holiday you will have to cancel any standing order (or similar) set up to pay it (as HMRC cannot differentiate, following submission of PAYE information, who wants to pay and who doesn't and it'll automatically be taken regardless). You should strictly try and contact them before doing this and make a note of the attempt (probably easier to ask forgiveness after the event than obtain permission now -though I hear they're being very generous in granting payment holidays if you can get through).

Pension's a bit fiddlier as part of the money you have to pay will probably most likely have been deducted from the employee and is not your money -hopefully your contribution won't amount to too much.

Note that the VAT deferral is similar to PAYE/NI -you need to cancel any payment order in place or it will be took -that is official HMRC guidance on that matter.

 

[Andrew Swales]

Without wanting to be patronising, to get any PAYE/NI holiday you will have to cancel any standing order (or similar) set up to pay it (as HMRC cannot differentiate, following submission of PAYE information, who wants to pay and who doesn't and it'll automatically be taken regardless). You should strictly try and contact them before doing this and make a note of the attempt (probably easier to ask forgiveness after the event than obtain permission now -though I hear they're being very generous in granting payment holidays if you can get through).

Pension's a bit fiddlier as part of the money you have to pay will probably most likely have been deducted from the employee and is not your money -hopefully your contribution won't amount to too much.

Note that the VAT deferral is similar to PAYE/NI -you need to cancel any payment order in place or it will be took -that is official HMRC guidance on that matter.

Absolutely, ALL our s/o's, d/d's etc were stopped on 24th March, the morning after 'the speech'.
All attempted (and documented) contact has failed thus far, save for the general advice that all deferrals despite attracting 'generous holidays' require the formal agreement of a repayment plan, which is impossible as we cannot guess when any income will resume, so how can it be planned for!
The difference between advice from our accountants/book-keepers, or official guidance - and reality, is very marked.

 

[Simon Hampel]

I've updated my tables comparing cases around the world - a few more US states have surpassed 20,000 cases and have been added.

Sorted by cases per million population:



Interestingly, NZ is still worse off than Australia on a population basis.


Sorted by deaths per million population:



New Jersey has seen a rapid rise in deaths. New Zealand now slightly worse than Australia.


Sorted by deaths per case:



European countries still dominating this list. Undoubtedly due to reporting differences.

 

[Chlidonias]

Interestingly, NZ is still worse off than Australia on a population basis.

A significant proportion of the NZ deaths have been from within one rest-home, and almost all deaths were people over 70 (a couple of them were in their 60s) who had existing medical conditions. We are at 18 deaths as of today.

It looks like almost all the Australian deaths have been in their 70s or older as well, and I guess a large percentage are related to that cruise ship? Probably if that hadn't happened your percentage-per-population would be even lower.

 

[Chlidonias]

New Zealand is aiming to eradicate within our borders, not just slow it down. We have a 4-level system with level 4 being full lockdown apart for essential services, and at the other end level 1 is where the virus is contained within NZ (but not overseas) and life is basically "carefully-normal". We're in level 4 now. Best case scenario is level 4 for a month, level 3 for a month, then levels 1 and 2 for 8-10 months. Obviously the lengths of time for the top two levels in particular will depend on the infection stats.

We are going to Level 3 on Tuesday. It's basically the same as Level 4 except a few more businesses can be open (not zoos though, and not dine-in restaurants, malls, etc). At the moment Level 3 will be set for two weeks, and then it will be reviewed. It's possible we'll go back to Level 4, or continue in Level 3 for a bit longer, or drop to Level 2.