Yeah, the figures really don't add up for Belgium.
The number of deaths we're seeing reported would indicate more like 140,000+ cases rather than the 46,000 currently reported - using a conservative 5% deaths per case (like we're seeing in the US).
I'm presuming that Belgium has good medical facilities - in which case Germany (3.7% deaths per case) is probably a better candidate for comparison, so that would indicate over 190,000 cases. That's 1.6% of the population and a higher infection rate than New York (1.4% of population) !!
From what I've read, though - many of the deaths being reported in Belgium are only "presumed" to have been from COVID-19 and so the number of deaths is likely highly over stated - indeed I just read that all nursing home deaths are presumed to be COVID-19 related, without a confirmed diagnosis. That's really unhelpful.
Any government can only react appropriately if it has accurate data to base their decisions on. Not having an accurate picture of the actual situation means they are basically guessing.
All I can suggest is that you do what you need to personally do to stay safe!
The actual number of cases in Belgium is definitely higher than the number of cases officially diagnosed (through lab testing) and reported in the official statistics, as it likely is anywhere. Belgian experts estimate the actual number of Sars-CoV-2 infections might actually be five to ten times higher than the reported number, especially if you count the people who are infected but asymptomatic or have only very mild symptoms.
A recent study on samples from blood donors found about 4.3% of sampled people to have antibodies against Sars-CoV-2. That might not be an accurate estimate for the entire population, but it is the best we currently have.
Something that definitely comes into play here is that at under the current criteria only people who have severe enough symptoms for a hospital check-up or admission, nursing home residents and staff and health care personnel can actually get tested. In a system like that you just aren't going to catch many mild or asymptomatic cases, whereas countries with a different testing strategy (like I belief Germany is partially doing) might catch more of those.
The Belgian health care system, like most, is far from perfect but it generally has a decent reputation, with good standards of care and well-trained staff. Belgium, compared to other countries, also has a higher per capita number of intensive care hospital beds - and that capacity was rapidly and very substantially increased further in preparation for and in the early days of the Covid-19 crisis.
Indeed a lot of the deaths, especially those in the nursing homes, are only presumed to be caused by Covid-19, based on symptoms. However testing in nursing homes has revealed that in some nursing homes over 50% or even over 75% of the residents have contracted Sars-CoV-2. Often those nursing home also report many residents, in some case dozens, having died recently. In such heavily infected nursing homes it isn't unreasonable to presume that most deaths of people with a respiratory pathology are Covid-19 caused or at least related. Many of the people in nursing homes are old and very ill people with an expected life expectancy of under a year, so it is difficult to determine how big a factor Covid-19 played in those deaths and whether it was truly the leading cause of death, as well as to determine how many would have died anyway in the short term, even without Covid-19, and for how many Covid-19 led to a truly untimely death.
But I have seen a statistic saying that in the last few weeks the number of weekly deaths in Belgium is about double the normal average - so Covid-19 is definitely causing a lot of deaths that otherwise in some cases wouldn't have occurred at all and in some cases wouldn't have occurred yet.
Even the experts have admitted that there is probably some over-reporting of deaths compared to other countries, skewing the toll up to some degree, but they probably have their reasons for doing so and I'm not going to doubt their wisdom in these matters much right now.
I am not at the moment totally happy with the response of our government to this crisis. The measures taken and rules implemented have been pretty appropriate, but I think they might well have allowed still a little too much room for contacts and further spread of the virus, and I am convinced violations have not been dealt with even nearly sufficiently harshly. Also, they have botched much of the communication and there has been a lot of confusion concerning the exact reach and meaning of certain rules, also leading to differences in enforcement. Things could have been done better. but it is not all bad and I am definitely following the rules.
I do not belong to a risk group for Covid-19, but a small number of people in my age group have sadly died from the virus, including some who did not have pre-existing health conditions or risk factors. So I am staying home and only going outside of our home and garden if I absolutely have to (which has only been once this month) and not having direct contact with anyone but my parents. My father is still going to work (he cannot work from home) and my mother goes to the store and on cycling trips, but as far as I am aware they are taking the necessary precautions and following the rules. I have also asked them to be careful and take some basic precautions with delivered packages.
Finally, I really hope we can get through this as soon as possible, but it looks like we will be dealing with this for a while to come. Experts think a lot of effort will have to put into avoiding a second, possibly far worse peak in the coming autumn or winter.
