COVID-19 around the world

[KevinB]

Recently a study was published naming Belgium as the country that did the worst managing the Covid-19 outbreak. The study was heavily based on excess mortality and even considering how "well" we counted, Belgium did very badly in that respect and we had a lot of excess mortality, especially in nursing homes but also in the general population and among younger generations.

Another study was published recently on long-term health effects among Covid-19 patients in Belgium and the Netherlands. The study makes it clear that hundreds if not thousands of Covid-19 patients, even those with so called "mild" cases that have never been admitted to hospital, have long-term health effects lasting months. A lot of these people are still, months later, unable to resume their normal lives and activities because of long-lasting tiredness, shortness of breath and muscle aches - and a lot of them still cannot even walk or run long distances. A lot of these people will take many more months to recover, and lot of them likely will never recover or be able to return to their previous lives completely.

This kind of study is extremely concerning and disturbing and I think calls into extremely serious question the safety and responsibility (from the view of public health) of the relaxations of the quarantine and containment measures. These relaxations might be putting the health of many hundreds of people, including young people, at great risk and might have life-changing consequences for a very large part of the population. There is still active circulation of the virus, at a time where more and more risky gatherings are allowed and occurring and when observation and enforcement of the remaining social distancing rules is getting ever more lax.

This study has me very worried and scared. Personally I am no longer certain that zoo visits are safe and responsible at this time. Yes there are some safety and social distancing measures, but the observation and enforcement of these is rather lax. We were considering a zoo visit for this weekend but I just cannot in good conscience do that anymore after reading this, and I am likely also going to cancel my planned and reserved visit for next weekend. I am no longer convinced that it is in fact safe and responsible for zoos to be open as this crisis continues.

 

[KevinB]

The epidemiological situation in Flanders and Belgium has worsened alarmingly AND with alarming speed since the beginning of this month. While we were at 85 cases (meaning new Covid-19 diagnoses/positive test results) per day on average (for all of Belgium) back in June that number has rapidly increased to 311 average daily cases as the latest figure. The number of hospital admissions and people admitted to ICU, though still relatively low compared to the first wave, units has begun to rise again with a worrying speed, while the number of deaths remains relatively low. Lab work has also revealed that there seem to be more super spreaders of the virus in this second wave than were found in the first wave, another worrisome development that we do not yet know the cause of (mutations of the virus?).

After a lot of back and forth and a lack of decisive action by our government last week resulting in increasing pressure and criticism our government has now finally taken measures to limit social contacts (with only 5 fixed contacts outside of your own household allowed in the next four weeks), to make face masks mandatory for anyone 12 or over in more places than before (i.e. all busy public areas such as zoos), to roll back some previous relaxations (on events, for example) and to increase safety to allow businesses to remain open (for example shopping is again only allowed alone or with a minor or person in need, and only for half an hour per shop), to give local and provincial governments more tools to tackle local and regional outbreaks and to strongly encourage working from home/tele-working again.

The city of Antwerp and the surrounding communities and by extension the entire province of Antwerp (for those who do not know: the province is a much larger area than the city of Antwerp comprising a total of 69 villages, towns and cities) account for about half of the cases diagnosed in this recent resurgence of Covid-19.

As such the governor of the province of Antwerp, Cathy Berx, has imposed even stricter regulations for the province. In Antwerp province there is now a curfew between 11.30 PM and 6 AM when you are only allowed outside for essential reasons (work or going to hospital), there are tighter restrictions on and an earlier closing hour for bars and restaurants, the restriction for shops also applied to open air markets, working from home/tele-working is mandatory for anyone living or working in Antwerp providence that can do so, face masks are now mandatory in all public spaces and everywhere on the streets, except when eating or drinking something at a bar or restaurant, as well as in all busy public and non-public areas, and contact and team sports are banned (aside from team sports for minors). In Antwerp city and the surrounding communities, the most heavily affected area, all events and parties, public or private, are also banned. Gyms are also closed again in that area.

It has been announced that observance of these measures, both the federal/national rules and the provincial rules, will be strictly monitored and enforced (although still not strongly enough or with harsh enough punishments in my opinion).

No bans or restrictions have so far been put on travel to, from and within the province of Antwerp, although there was some discussion about it between experts and politicians. However governor Cathy Berx has asked and urged people strongly to not travel to or from the heavily affected area of Antwerp and surrounding communities, and by extension to the entire province, for non-essential reasons, as well as for residents to limit non-essential travel within the province if possible, and to stay at home as much as possible. Judging by media reports people are taking at least the advise to stay away from Antwerp city quite seriously, and a lot of them are staying away from there. But there are no legal limits on travel for the time being and I could for example still travel to Antwerp if I chose to, even though it would right now be unwise to do so for non-essential reasons.

There is for the time being no lockdown in Antwerp like we had this spring, but some people have called the current rules partial lockdown or lockdown light. Politicians and experts are trying to avoid a full lockdown scenario and are trying to keep the economy going and businesses open as much as possible, while also ensuring safety and public health. Tourist attractions like museums zoos are allowed to remain open for the time being, but with strict safety measures and mandatory face masks everywhere. Even Antwerp Zoo is still allowed to be open at this point.

My own home town of Heist-op-den-Berg is also in the province of Antwerp, but it sits in the very south of the province and so far luckily the number of cases as well as the number of cases per capita in Heist-op-den-Berg and surrounding areas are still much lower than those seen in the larger Antwerp area.

I really hope that the new measures will help to again flatten and crush the epidemic curve, and I also really hope they will be followed as well as possible and will be enforced as much as possible. These measures, while harsh and unpleasant, are what we needed and are our last line of defense to contain this resurgence without a new lockdown I fear. These are once again scary times, hopefully we can succeed at making this resurgence a small peak and not a massive second wave.

 

[vogelcommando]

77 Exit in the Wild species 'threatened' by COVID-19 :

Extinct-in-the-wild species' last stand

 

[Chlidonias]

I see on the news that the UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer vaccine for public use, with 800,000 doses due in the next few days from Belgium. The UK has ordered 40 million doses. Much more information in the BBC link below, but it will still be some time before everyone can be vaccinated and of course the initial lot will be prioritised. Also the Pfizer vaccine has transport and storage limitations, whereas the other vaccine (the Oxford University one) will be easier to distribute.

Covid-19: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine judged safe for use in UK

 

[KevinB]

Just as the first vaccinations against Covid-19 have started to happen or are planned to take place soon in different countries, in England a new strain of Sars-CoV-2 has shown up and is rapidly becoming a dominant strain. While it is not believed to be more deadly and presumably the vaccines will still be effective against it, this new strain is far more infectious - up to 70% more according to the UK government, resulting in harsh restrictions.

The new strain has been found in small numbers also outside of the UK. And while this kind of mutation is to be expected, especially with high infection rates and widespread virus transmission, a far more infectious strain is incredibly concerning. This will likely complicate efforts to contain transmission of the virus and might very well lead to more, longer and tougher restrictions affecting people and businesses.

I would call this a very worrisome development - and a warning to governments to be tough and courageous in their efforts to contain the spread of the virus as soon and as effectively as possible.

Covid: WHO in 'close contact' with UK over new virus variant
New coronavirus strain up to 70% more transmissible, government says
New Covid strain spreads FASTER than old mutations and it's baffling scientists
The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly. Here's what they know

 

[Crowthorne]

21 million people in SE England are now in the new Tier 4 restrictions, mostly because the new, more contagious Covid strain is driving a big spike in infection rates. It's been calculated that the new strain is 60-70% more contagious than the 'normal' strains of Covid, although it doesn't appear to be more dangerous. An interview on BBC Breakfast this morning said that the new strain has mutations in around 20 places on the RNA chain, but that these are not likely to be the same chain sections which are used in the vaccines, which will likely still be 99% effective against the new strain.

 

[Simon Hampel]

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

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There are concerns, however, that reported Covid-19 deaths are not capturing the true impact of coronavirus on mortality around the world. The FT has gathered and analysed data on excess mortality — the numbers of deaths over and above the historical average — across the globe, and has found that numbers of deaths in some countries are more than 50 per cent higher than usual. In many countries, these excess deaths exceed reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths by large margins.

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