Saint Louis Zoo Saint Louis Zoo News 2018

Looking at that slideshow, I hope I'm not the only one alarmed by the fact that only 8% of the AZA's SSPs are at the green level. If things don't turn around soon, then they're either going to have to phase out a ton of species, or just really crack down and commit to making sure their animals are breeding plentifully.

Benchmark for Green is retainment of 90% gene diversity for 100 years or 10 generations, depending on which comes first. This cannot realistically be done with less than 20 founders or a population below 50-60, and in most cases it requires either 50+ and at least ~100 individuals or a constant, reliable source of imports. Thus, most zoo populations will probably never be Green due to import and space limitations.

That being said, not being Green doesn't at all mean the population is doomed; just that it's not sustainable long-term. Periodic imports and good management can keep GD from slipping too low... and even if it does, many species do not seem significantly affected by low GD and inbreeding in captivity (although it's obviously not preferable). Also, the situation is improving rather than declining for a lot of species; progress is slow, but palpable in many areas.

100 years is a long time. Zoos in 1918 look nothing like they do today, so realistically they might look totally different in 2118, if they exist at all. Most program species will continue to be in zoos for decades, and anything longer than that is inherently unpredictable.
 
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