I think we are talking at cross purposes here. To explain more clearly what I am saying:
- Smuggling is expensive. In terms of the discussion here we would mostly be talking about birds which can attract prices of $5,000+ each.
- The market for smuggled birds is mostly for parrots, because parrot fanciers are most likely to pay the price. This is not to say other birds may not be involved. I am aware for instance of one attempt to smuggle turacos (as eggs) into Australia.
- Which brings me to another point, it is a two way process.
- A species is likely to be subject to smuggling until the price of birds bred in the recipient country drops below the price of smuggled birds.
- For probably the last 40 years most smuggling would have been as eggs, which of course can easily be transported in hand luggage by air.
- Prior to that there would have been a number of options, including sea, forged documents, bribery of officials etc. One factor would be that in previous years smuggling birds would not have been seen as such a serious offence, many people would not have thought much about looking the other way.
- I am not suggesting there is a large trade currently in Australian birds, or that it poses any conservation risk. But to claim it does not exist is I believe an unsustainable position.
In this you are right, there is smuggling going on, but it is a minor thing and indeed mostly covering parrots. And then mostly captive bred parrots, including colour mutations. A long time ago I was shown blue red-rumped parrots, where the parents arrived as eggs in the UK. And I know of captive-bred birds being bought in Europe for Australian fanciers. So it does happens. Of course someone outside Australia having orange-bellied parakeets or ground parrots would run into trouble, but someone acquiring blue blue-winged parrots or naretha blue-bonned could do so without getting noticed.
Do some of the captive populations outside Australia have a shady origin for sure, but it is for certain very specific species. In my view it is no surprise that a lot of the golden-shouldered parrots in Europe come from stock originally bred by a Dutch friend of the late Joe Mattinson, but looking at the current state of play, there are very few species that are financially interesting to smuggle, with the current risks.