Ok. My thanks to
@TheGerenuk , who kindly understood my request to leave the punditry to me. I mostly stay out of the debates, so these review-and-preview posts are where I get to engage most fully in the game.
Each zoo has now played two matches. A couple have safely advanced and a couple are out, but the vast majority still have a chance to advance. So let’s see where we are.
Group A
Los Angeles 50 d North Carolina 19 - ectotherms
Vienna 34 d Munich 26 - primates
Munich 78 d North Carolina 3 - miscellaneous mammals
Vienna 56 d Los Angeles 19 - birds
Vienna 2 wins, 0 losses, 65.7%
Munich 1 win, 1 loss, 69.8%
Los Angeles 1 win, 1 loss, 48.9%
North Carolina 0 wins, 2 losses, 15.6%
This group is pretty simple. Vienna’s win over Los Angeles means it has safely advanced, and it can top the group with a win over North Carolina which, I’m afraid to say, is left playing for pride. The remaining categories are carnivores and ungulates & elephants, though, so NC stands a pretty good chance of restoring its dignity. The winner of Munich and Los Angeles will decide who gets the other spot in the next round.
Group B
Detroit 58 d Berlin 53 - carnivores
Wroclaw 90 d San Diego 0 - miscellaneous mammals
Berlin 81 d San Diego 6 - primates
Wroclaw 61 d Detroit 17 - birds
Wroclaw 2 wins, 0 losses, 89.1%
Berlin 1 win, 1 loss, 70.4%
Detroit 1 win, 1 loss, 31.6%
San Diego ZSP 0 wins, 2 losses, 3.5%
San Diego ZSP’s misfortune has exposed its unbalanced collection in rather humbling fashion. Had it drawn carnivores and ungulates it’d be on its way into the second round by now... instead, it’s at 3.5% and faces coming stone motherless last among the 32 zoos in the comp.
Wroclaw effortlessly knocked aside a second US challenger and is now mathematically certain to advance: even a whitewash loss in the third match can only reduce its average to 59.4%, whereas a Detroit whitewash over San Diego can only get it up to 54.4%.
That doesn’t quite mean Detroit is out of contention, though, because if it beats San Diego and Wroclaw brushes aside Berlin, Detroit is through and the Euro title-holder is gone. The remaining categories are ectotherms and ungulates, which means it really is all or nothing for Detroit: draw ectotherms and have a real shot at advancing, or hit ungulates and be on the wrong side of a spiteful San Diego.
Group C
Plzen 63 d Columbus 27 - miscellaneous mammals
Rotterdam 43 d Singapore 38 - ectotherms
Rotterdam 36 d Columbus 18 - primates
Singapore 36 d Plzen 18 - carnivores
Rotterdam 2 wins, 0 losses, 59.9%
Singapore 1 win, 1 loss, 56.8%
Plzen 1 win, 1 loss, 51.7%
Columbus 0 wins, 2 losses, 31.7%
This is delicately poised. Rotterdam only needs a win, obviously, to advance out of the group undefeated. It would be very happy to face Plzen on ungulates, one suspects, and rather warier about the same match-up on birds.
Singapore doesn’t want birds either - remember, Jurong doesn’t count - but it probably doesn’t love ungulates much anyway. That might not even matter: a big win for Rotterdam that knocks Plzen’s percentage down far enough could see Singapore through on percentage even if it loses to Columbus. The same applies for Plzen if Columbus does enough damage to Singapore. And if *both* matches are blowouts there’s even a narrow but plausible path for Columbus to come from a winless fourth place to snatch second spot. Think at the margins about these matches, everybody: it’s going to matter.
Group D
Beauval 41 d Frankfurt 34 - carnivores
San Diego 61 d St Louis 8 - birds
Beauval 63 d San Diego 21 - ungulates and elephants
St Louis 54 d Frankfurt 24 - ectotherms
Beauval 2 wins, 0 losses, 64.9%
San Diego 1 win, 1 loss, 56.7%
St Louis 1 win, 1 loss, 40.4%
Frankfurt 0 wins, 2 losses, 38.1%
I’m not going to lie, I didn’t see Beauval’s frolicking win over San Diego coming, though I’m not sure why: I’ve been to both zoos and it should have been self-evident that Beauval would be tough to beat.
Anyway, it’s blown this group right open, with primates and miscellaneous mammals still in play: there’s a Grzimek-sized obstacle in San Diego’s path to beating Frankfurt and advancing out of the group. A solid enough win for St Louis over Beauval and it might advance even if SD also wins, while Frankfurt has a narrow path that depends on stomping on San Diego and relying on Beauval to do the same to St Louis.
Group E
Cologne 54 d Denver 9 - miscellaneous mammals
Miami 63 d Pairi Daiza 18 - ungulates and elephants
Cologne 53 d Miami 19 - primates
Denver 44 d Pairi Daiza 43 - carnivores
Cologne 2 wins, 0 losses, 79.7%
Miami 1 win, 1 loss, 52.1%
Denver 1 win, 1 loss, 32.5%
Pairi Daiza 0 wins, 2 losses, 35.8%
One point. One lousy point, and now Pairi Daiza - a zoo that really should be contending to win the entire Cup, is on its way home instead.
With Denver and Miami both on one win each, the winner of their match advances, and I honestly don’t know enough about either zoo to speculate about which non-mammal category favours either one. Pairi Daiza, meanwhile, could whitewash Cologne and it still won’t do it any good: one lousy point has seen to that.
Group F
Bronx 64 d Antwerp 38 - primates
Zurich 65 d Leipzig 37 - ectotherms
Zurich 53 d Antwerp 40 - ungulates and elephants
Leipzig 53 d Bronx 52 - miscellaneous mammals
Zurich 2 win, 0 losses, 60.4%
Bronx 1 win, 1 loss, 56.1%
Leipzig 1 win, 1 loss, 43.4%
Antwerp 0 wins, 2 losses, 40.2%
Another one pointer that could have terrible consequences for a leading contender for Cup honours. The Leipzig-Bronx match wasn’t pretty, but it was certainly tight and it’s set my favourite group up for a fascinating final round of matches. The remaining categories are carnivores and birds, and I wouldn’t wish to predict which of Bronx or Zurich would come out ahead on either, whereas the category draw for Antwerp and Leipzig is probably more decisive. The lack of any real blowouts means all four zoos could either advance or crash out here.
Group G
Taronga 57 d Berlin Tierpark 27 - ectotherms
Burgers 41 v Woodland Park 22 - primates
Berlin Tierpark 73 d Burgers 26 - ungulates and elephants
Taronga 40 d Woodland Park 29 - birds
Taronga 2 wins, 0 losses, 63%
Berlin Tierpark 1 win, 1 loss, 52.9%
Burgers 1 win, 1 loss,45.7%
Woodland Park 0 wins, 2 losses, 38.9%
Don’t get me wrong, I love Taronga, which is the closest thing I have to a home zoo in the race, but I did not see this coming. With miscellaneous mammals and carnivores still to come, it might be only a platypus away from romping out of the first group stage undefeated. Who’d have thought? That same platypus has Burgers - one of the very best quality zoos in the world - at real risk of failing to advance, and Woodland Park is in with a real sniff too. Going into the Cup I thought this group would be easy pickings for European heavyweights. Perhaps not.
Group H
Chester 46 d Dallas 20 - birds
Omaha 46 d Prague 32 - ectotherms
Chester 55 d Omaha 32 - ungulates
Prague 68 d Dallas 25 - primates
Chester 2 wins, 0 losses, 66.5%
Prague 1 win, 1 loss, 57.1%
Omaha 1 win, 1 loss, 47.9%
Dallas 0 wins, 2 losses, 28.6%
Poor Dallas is a bit over-matched in this group of death: it probably needed to hit ungulates as a category and could only watch Chester and Omaha fight it out from beneath Prague’s boots, as the latter crushed it on primates. It has a mathematical chance if Chester knocks over Prague and it beats Omaha by a lot, but it needs almost everything to go right. The remaining categories are carnivores and miscellaneous mammals, and you have to assume Chester feels relatively good about its position either way.
We’ll start the deciding contests anon.