Australian Asian Elephant Population 2025

[Zoofan15]

Unfortunately, not a chance. Not in my lifetime or yours.

But - how about Fossa, Bush Dogs, Racoon Dogs etc, etc?

And, we got very close but no cigar, Anoa?

Or, the biggest prize of all, African Elephant? A no brainer for Australia I would have thought.

Sorry Chlidonias - maybe a new thread?

Australia’s best opportunity to import African elephants came (and went) with Monarto’s decision to acquire Asian elephants. I don’t think any of us would have been surprised if they’d gone on that trajectory long term; and had Australia Zoo coordinated with them years ago prior to importing four Sumatran elephants, they could have been a potential second holder.

Within a historical context, things would surely look very different had Dubbo’s herd bred back in the 1980’s as was then the hope.

That’s not to say I’m unhappy with how things have turned out. It is what it is and the Asian elephant breeding programme has benefitted immensely from the open range zoos them in herds. I’m also grateful that Monarto have enabled us to retain Putra Mas as a region. He would have been a great loss to the regional population had he been exported to the US as appeared to be the only alternative (bar Werribee).

 

[Zoofan15]

Don't you guys already have enough trouble as is finding placements for offspring with just a single elephant species?

Unfortunately yes. There’s just simply not enough holders. All city zoos bar Sydney that used to hold elephants have declared themselves unsuitable to manage elephants due to space limitations and have either phased out (Wellington, Auckland, Melbourne, Adelaide and Taronga) or are about to phase out (Perth).

The privately run regional zoos have showed great ambition but financial constraints will unfortunately prohibit most of them from holding elephants.

That essentially leaves the region’s elephant population in the hands of the open range zoos, which even then have a limit to what they hold.

 

[Steve Robinson]

Australia’s best opportunity to import African elephants came (and went) with Monarto’s decision to acquire Asian elephants. I don’t think any of us would have been surprised if they’d gone on that trajectory long term; and had Australia Zoo coordinated with them years ago prior to importing four Sumatran elephants, they could have been a potential second holder.

Within a historical context, things would surely look very different had Dubbo’s herd bred back in the 1980’s as was then the hope.

That’s not to say I’m unhappy with how things have turned out. It is what it is and the Asian elephant breeding programme has benefitted immensely from the open range zoos them in herds. I’m also grateful that Monarto have enabled us to retain Putra Mas as a region. He would have been a great loss to the regional population had he been exported to the US as appeared to be the only alternative (bar Werribee).

I can't say that I disagree with any of that. Certainly Monarto has the ideal climate, geography and acreage for Africans closely followed by Dubbo and Pilton. Not necessarily Australia Zoo though.

I do agree that the massive benefit of the current situation has been the retention of Putra Mas in this country. Now to get him to a different part of this country!

 

[Zorro]

I can't say that I disagree with any of that. Certainly Monarto has the ideal climate, geography and acreage for Africans closely followed by Dubbo and Pilton. Not necessarily Australia Zoo though.

I do agree that the massive benefit of the current situation has been the retention of Putra Mas in this country. Now to get him to a different part of this country!

Piltons warm dry climate would have been ideal for Africans

 

[The Sleepy Hippo]

Africans would do fine almost anywhere in Australia. They exist in South Africa which has winters just as harsh as Victoria. And they exist in the Congo basin (Forest Elephants) which has similar climate to north Queensland.

 

[Zoofan15]

While I would have loved to have seen them too I believe Monarto has done the right thing to become part of the regional holding/ possible breeding program for the Asian elephant only open range zoos can hold a proper herd in a group setting plus any possibly of breeding them with only 3 open range zoos in the country having all 3 holding them is win for them

I agree holding elephants in open range zoos is an excellent example of progression within our region’s zoos. An acknowledgment of housing animals in natural social groupings (gorillas and chimpanzees in troops etc) is nothing new; but for decades, elephants have lagged behind.

Successful breeding in the region (since 2009) now means we have the opportunity to house multigenerational herds of related elephants versus the throwing unrelated elephants together paradigm that existed throughout the 20th century - Monarto’s elephants being a relic of this.

Both Dubbo and Werribee have unrelated matrilines, so the next couple of decades will reveal whether that presents as an issue; but there will surely be contingencies in place to manage such an issue if and when it arises. Monarto’s future may well be dynamic in that regard - if all is well, a bachelor facility to manage surplus bulls; if Pak Boon breeding fails and there’s a fall out in the Dubbo/Werribee herd, they could acquire a split herd from one of those facilities.

 

[Tiger91]

I agree holding elephants in open range zoos is an excellent example of progression within our region’s zoos. An acknowledgment of housing animals in natural social groupings (gorillas and chimpanzees in troops etc) is nothing new; but for decades, elephants have lagged behind.

Successful breeding in the region (since 2009) now means we have the opportunity to house multigenerational herds of related elephants versus the throwing unrelated elephants together paradigm that existed throughout the 20th century - Monarto’s elephants being a relic of this.

Both Dubbo and Werribee have unrelated matrilines, so the next couple of decades will reveal whether that presents as an issue; but there will surely be contingencies in place to manage such an issue if and when it arises. Monarto’s future may well be dynamic in that regard - if all is well, a bachelor facility to manage surplus bulls; if Pak Boon breeding fails and there’s a fall out in the Dubbo/Werribee herd, they could acquire a split herd from one of those facilities.

Differing matrilines have only been an issue in zoo's with confined enclosures. A complex like Werribee and hope what Dubbo will eventually one day upgrade to will have the space to allow fission/fusion herd dynamics within the same enclosure. Which will eliminate most if not all the issues we have seen especially in Europe with differing matrilines.

 

[Zoofan15]

Differing matrilines have only been an issue in zoo's with confined enclosures. A complex like Werribee and hope what Dubbo will eventually one day upgrade to will have the space to allow fission/fusion herd dynamics within the same enclosure. Which will eliminate most if not all the issues we have seen especially in Europe with differing matrilines.

Werribee’s complex is pioneering in multiple ways, so it’s difficult to predict how things will play out.

Dokkoon has the strongest matriline, with an adult daughter and a juvenile daughter; but is not regarded a dominant cow by any means. I don’t anticipate any issues from her.

Kulab is currently the strongest chance of succeeded Mek Kepah as matriarch, but no shift has occurred as of yet. Kulab is closely bonded to Num-Oi, who has a juvenile daughter; so they essentially form a family unit which may well grow further apart from Dokkoon/Mali over the next decade or so.

If Anjalee produces a son, then it’s probable things will continue to tick along as they are at Dubbo with Porntip and her adolescent daughter forming the central clique of the herd. If Anjalee produces a daughter, that may well lead to a divide a decade or two from now.

 

[Tiger91]

Werribee’s complex is pioneering in multiple ways, so it’s difficult to predict how things will play out.

Dokkoon has the strongest matriline, with an adult daughter and a juvenile daughter; but is not regarded a dominant cow by any means. I don’t anticipate any issues from her.

Kulab is currently the strongest chance of succeeded Mek Kepah as matriarch, but no shift has occurred as of yet. Kulab is closely bonded to Num-Oi, who has a juvenile daughter; so they essentially form a family unit which may well grow further apart from Dokkoon/Mali over the next decade or so.

If Anjalee produces a son, then it’s probable things will continue to tick along as they are at Dubbo with Porntip and her adolescent daughter forming the central clique of the herd. If Anjalee produces a daughter, that may well lead to a divide a decade or two from now.

Not particularly, Werribee is pioneering for Australia and its size. But the predictability will put it more in line with how Asian elephants inhabit Asian sanctuaries. There matrilines have the space to come and go using the fission and fusion herd dynamic we see in wild Asian elephants. Personally I think we will see more natural behavior, in that the matrilines will have the space to move through the enclosures as they see fit. Which will effectively remove the stress and aggression we see in Europe. Where the enclosures do not always allow for this to occur. It's something you can see trying to be mitigated in a lot of there newer enclosures, with line of sight breaks etc.

Matrilineal herds, even in African elephants which have larger and typically tighter matrilineal herds are not together all the time. The social dynamics of that is not in the elephant inherent behaviors, allowing for this. Will remove the issues we have seen.

 

[Zoofan15]

Not particularly, Werribee is pioneering for Australia and its size. But the predictability will put it more in line with how Asian elephants inhabit Asian sanctuaries. There matrilines have the space to come and go using the fission and fusion herd dynamic we see in wild Asian elephants. Personally I think we will see more natural behavior, in that the matrilines will have the space to move through the enclosures as they see fit. Which will effectively remove the stress and aggression we see in Europe. Where the enclosures do not always allow for this to occur. It's something you can see trying to be mitigated in a lot of there newer enclosures, with line of sight breaks etc.

Matrilineal herds, even in African elephants which have larger and typically tighter matrilineal herds are not together all the time. The social dynamics of that is not in the elephant inherent behaviors, allowing for this. Will remove the issues we have seen.

I too would expect to see a range of natural behaviours within the Werribee herd. Zoos Victoria’s elephant keepers reported a shift to elephant led behaviours following the move to protected contact and the concept of the multiple paddocks is of course to enable the elephants opportunities of how to live their day. They make the decisions.

Conflicts can still arise in open range zoos as was the case for Whipsnade Zoo; however it’s worth noting that Dokkoon, Kulab and Num-Oi have grown up together and are a closely bonded herd (along with Mek Kepah). Even with two of these cows now having daughters of their own, this will surely stand them in a better stead than other herds housing more than one matriline.

Monarto have the most potential for conflicts long term for obvious reasons. Bringing together four cows from three herds is an immense challenge and it’s unclear how successful this will be in the long run.

 

[Frankie_number_1_fan]

I have to wonder at this point if Australia's program is going to run itself into the ground.

The entire program is propped up on five facilities, two active breeding, one hopeful to breed, one bachelor holding and one completely inactive cow holder. Of the breeding facilities, Dubbo has insufficient space and is likely retiring 2 of their three current viable cows, Monarto is relying on a cow that hasn't bred in pushing a decade while pairing her with an inexperienced bull and Werribee (while in the best position of the three) has stated they plan to limit breeding themselves. It just feels like extremely questionable management choices have been made over recent years that are doing more harm than good.
Retiring perfectly fertile and extremely underrepresented cows is a terrible decision and I can't help but fear if it will come back to bite them. EEHV still looms and, for all we know, could wreak havoc on any facility even with diligent monitoring. Especially in Dubbo's case since they're supposedly planning to retire Porntip when her only daughter is not even of eligible breeding age.

If open-range facilities are fearful of breeding regularly due to producing bulls, then efforts should've/should be made to convert city zoo exhibits into small bachelor holding, or other zoos should be approached with the possibility of operating larger bachelor holding. Even reaching back out to the US to export some surplus bulls isn't a terrible option, I'm sure a few facilities would itch to get their hands on Sabai or even Roy-Yim years down the line. Ongard hasn't been utilized yet, but with bull shifts happening more and more in the US it is inevitable he will be a valuable addition sooner rather than later, as would virtually any Australian import.

As Kifaru Bwana stated, if Australia continues to breed cows 2-3 times with risky 7-8 year intervals between births before retiring them, boldly assuming their produced offspring will survive to breed in their own right, I genuinely struggle to see a long-term future for the program. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, but unless a few more facilities jump on board and we see some fresh bull imports my hopes aren't exactly high.

 

[Zoofan15]

I have to wonder at this point if Australia's program is going to run itself into the ground.

The entire program is propped up on five facilities, two active breeding, one hopeful to breed, one bachelor holding and one completely inactive cow holder. Of the breeding facilities, Dubbo has insufficient space and is likely retiring 2 of their three current viable cows, Monarto is relying on a cow that hasn't bred in pushing a decade while pairing her with an inexperienced bull and Werribee (while in the best position of the three) has stated they plan to limit breeding themselves. It just feels like extremely questionable management choices have been made over recent years that are doing more harm than good.
Retiring perfectly fertile and extremely underrepresented cows is a terrible decision and I can't help but fear if it will come back to bite them. EEHV still looms and, for all we know, could wreak havoc on any facility even with diligent monitoring. Especially in Dubbo's case since they're supposedly planning to retire Porntip when her only daughter is not even of eligible breeding age.

If open-range facilities are fearful of breeding regularly due to producing bulls, then efforts should've/should be made to convert city zoo exhibits into small bachelor holding, or other zoos should be approached with the possibility of operating larger bachelor holding. Even reaching back out to the US to export some surplus bulls isn't a terrible option, I'm sure a few facilities would itch to get their hands on Sabai or even Roy-Yim years down the line. Ongard hasn't been utilized yet, but with bull shifts happening more and more in the US it is inevitable he will be a valuable addition sooner rather than later, as would virtually any Australian import.

As Kifaru Bwana stated, if Australia continues to breed cows 2-3 times with risky 7-8 year intervals between births before retiring them, boldly assuming their produced offspring will survive to breed in their own right, I genuinely struggle to see a long-term future for the program. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, but unless a few more facilities jump on board and we see some fresh bull imports my hopes aren't exactly high.

You make a lot of good points and the results speak for themselves in that out of the seven cows imported from Thailand, only three of them have matrilines (only one of which contains an adult/breeding daughter). All going well the two matrilines at Werribee and the one (hopefully two) at Dubbo will be sufficient to sustain herds at those zoos, though you’re correct EEHV remains a threat.

It would be hugely beneficial to the region to offload Sabai and Roi-Yim as they have minimumal breeding application within Australasia. Sabai is unrelated to the entire North American population. I understand the US has sufficient numbers of breeding bulls at present however; and I note the last bull we sent them (Ongard) remains unutilsied to date.

Long term, a large bachelor facility will be needed and Monarto appears the most realistic option. Pak Boon may not breed and if she does, her calves may be bulls. Within three decades, it’s reasonable to assume most if not all of the elephants they have on site would have passed on and in the interim they could begin accumulating bulls; which could in turn be mentored by Putra Mas. The only alternative to increasing the bull capacity is for multiple smaller holders to arise; but given these are small, privately run zoos, this is unlikely to happen.

 

[Jambo]

Thoroughly agree @Frankie_number_1_fan.

Of the breeding facilities, Dubbo has insufficient space and is likely retiring 2 of their three current viable cows, Monarto is relying on a cow that hasn't bred in pushing a decade while pairing her with an inexperienced bull and Werribee (while in the best position of the three) has stated they plan to limit breeding themselves.

Dubbo has the outdoor space, the main problem is they don't have the barn capacity. They're relying on barns built almost half a century ago, and the only new barn was designed with only a few stalls. Unsure as to why, as that's incredibly poor planning when .you consider the plan was and always has been to breed. Werribee have also built a disappointingly small barn - but at least they have the ability to accommodate a reasonably sized matriarchal herd.

Retiring perfectly fertile and extremely underrepresented cows is a terrible decision and I can't help but fear if it will come back to bite them. EEHV still looms and, for all we know, could wreak havoc on any facility even with diligent monitoring. Especially in Dubbo's case since they're supposedly planning to retire Porntip when her only daughter is not even of eligible breeding age.

At the very least I would have allowed both Porntip and Thong Dee to breed once more. I guess the theory behind such a decision is that both already have two offspring, including an adult bull son each, one of which has already sired calves. But it still would've been nice to see Thong Dee establish a matriline at Dubbo, and for Porntip, if Kanlaya passes, her line will essentially rely on Pathi Harn breeding. I'm assuming due to the fact that his half brother (Ongard) is already in the USA, he won't have application over there, and will likely be eventually utilised for breeding here.

If open-range facilities are fearful of breeding regularly due to producing bulls, then efforts should've/should be made to convert city zoo exhibits into small bachelor holding, or other zoos should be approached with the possibility of operating larger bachelor holding

Definitely do agree, although you can see why those said facilities have gone out of elephants in the first place; the biggest reason being space. Zoos Victoria in particular are very big on animal welfare, and with the size of the previous complex at Melbourne, there's no way they would even display a few bulls there with the huge complex just down the highway at Werribee.

Taronga are arguably in the same boat with space limitations (largely due to the zoo's terrain), and Perth and Auckland are also on very small plots of land. The best hope imo was for Monarto to operate as a bachelor facility, with Taronga just building a new barn that could accommodate a larger matriarchal herd (meaning they could have received Pak Boon and Tang Mo), and Burma and Permai could've easily gone to Sydney swapped for their bulls going the other way.

 

[Zoofan15]

Thoroughly agree @Frankie_number_1_fan.

Dubbo has the outdoor space, the main problem is they don't have the barn capacity. They're relying on barns built almost half a century ago, and the only new barn was designed with only a few stalls. Unsure as to why, as that's incredibly poor planning when .you consider the plan was and always has been to breed. Werribee have also built a disappointingly small barn - but at least they have the ability to accommodate a reasonably sized matriarchal herd.

At the very least I would have allowed both Porntip and Thong Dee to breed once more. I guess the theory behind such a decision is that both already have two offspring, including an adult bull son each, one of which has already sired calves. But it still would've been nice to see Thong Dee establish a matriline at Dubbo, and for Porntip, if Kanlaya passes, her line will essentially rely on Pathi Harn breeding. I'm assuming due to the fact that his half brother (Ongard) is already in the USA, he won't have application over there, and will likely be eventually utilised for breeding here.

Definitely do agree, although you can see why those said facilities have gone out of elephants in the first place; the biggest reason being space. Zoos Victoria in particular are very big on animal welfare, and with the size of the previous complex at Melbourne, there's no way they would even display a few bulls there with the huge complex just down the highway at Werribee.

Taronga are arguably in the same boat with space limitations (largely due to the zoo's terrain), and Perth and Auckland are also on very small plots of land. The best hope imo was for Monarto to operate as a bachelor facility, with Taronga just building a new barn that could accommodate a larger matriarchal herd (meaning they could have received Pak Boon and Tang Mo), and Burma and Permai could've easily gone to Sydney swapped for their bulls going the other way.

Adding to Dubbo’s issues with regards to capacity is the fact that for a combination of reasons, they’ve had to accomodate each of their bulls separately. Sparring between Luk Chai and Pathi Harn grew so competitive that their contact sessions were reduced to 2-3 sessions a week by the time Luk Chai transferred to Melbourne. Pathi Harn was the main instigator and Luk Chai had a good relationship with both Sabai and later, Man Jai. Due to being unrelated to all three of Melbourne’s viable cows, it was always going to be Luk Chai transferring over; though from a social perspective, he was a loss to Dubbo in that regard. No bull has ever been able to be held with Gung for any length of time and although Sabai has contact with both older bulls, they’re essentially managing all three bulls separately.

Dubbo’s matriarchal herd has thankfully experienced no issues. Anjalee has integrated seamlessly into the herd. Bearing in mind Dubbo wish to allow one of their five paddocks to remain vacant at time for regeneration of grass etc. and they’re arguably at capacity already. They’ll surely be hoping Anjalee’s calf is a female as otherwise there’s the potential he’ll need to be accommodated in a fifth grouping depending on what relationship he can build with Sabai (who I think most of us would agree is the best chance of being a mentor bull to any future males born at Dubbo).

Anjalee is a founder; but the fact Gung is the sire of her unborn calf means a bull calf will have basically no breeding application to the region. Fingers crossed for a female!

 

[Zorro]

I have to wonder at this point if Australia's program is going to run itself into the ground.

The entire program is propped up on five facilities, two active breeding, one hopeful to breed, one bachelor holding and one completely inactive cow holder. Of the breeding facilities, Dubbo has insufficient space and is likely retiring 2 of their three current viable cows, Monarto is relying on a cow that hasn't bred in pushing a decade while pairing her with an inexperienced bull and Werribee (while in the best position of the three) has stated they plan to limit breeding themselves. It just feels like extremely questionable management choices have been made over recent years that are doing more harm than good.
Retiring perfectly fertile and extremely underrepresented cows is a terrible decision and I can't help but fear if it will come back to bite them. EEHV still looms and, for all we know, could wreak havoc on any facility even with diligent monitoring. Especially in Dubbo's case since they're supposedly planning to retire Porntip when her only daughter is not even of eligible breeding age.

If open-range facilities are fearful of breeding regularly due to producing bulls, then efforts should've/should be made to convert city zoo exhibits into small bachelor holding, or other zoos should be approached with the possibility of operating larger bachelor holding. Even reaching back out to the US to export some surplus bulls isn't a terrible option, I'm sure a few facilities would itch to get their hands on Sabai or even Roy-Yim years down the line. Ongard hasn't been utilized yet, but with bull shifts happening more and more in the US it is inevitable he will be a valuable addition sooner rather than later, as would virtually any Australian import.

As Kifaru Bwana stated, if Australia continues to breed cows 2-3 times with risky 7-8 year intervals between births before retiring them, boldly assuming their produced offspring will survive to breed in their own right, I genuinely struggle to see a long-term future for the program. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, but unless a few more facilities jump on board and we see some fresh bull imports my hopes aren't exactly high.

This is the point I have made in some of my recent posts they appear to be making some fundamental mistakes which with better planning should not happen. I believe there should be some perhaps a yearly round table meetings of all the elephant holders within the country for a better more cooperative management plan. If they are not more careful they are likely to have some major setbacks

 

[Zoofan15]

This is the point I have made in some of my recent posts they appear to be making some fundamental mistakes which with better planning should not happen. I believe there should be some perhaps a yearly round table meetings of all the elephant holders within the country for a better more cooperative management plan. If they are not more careful they are likely to have some major setbacks

Dubbo would definitely benefit from some succession planning. I don’t know to what extent this is undertaken; but Werribee have a succession plan that’s to be reviewed every five years. The current plan is for each of the cows to have another calf (sired by Luk Chai) once they’re settled at Werribee. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them conceive within the next year - targeting an approximately five year birth interval between the current cohort and the next one. This represents a slight artificial extension to the three year natural birth interval.

Until it can be ascertained whether Putra Mas and Pak Boon can breed, I imagine the regional plan will be kept very dynamic. If Pak Boon can establish a matriline, they will have the opportunity to generate succession as a facility. If this plan fails, by default the wheels are in motion for them to become a bachelor facility.

 

[Yassa]

The population of Asian elephants in Australia is not yet self-sustaining: 7 females were imported and almost 20 years later, only 4 surviving female offspring have been born. And serveral of the 7 original females are already non-reproductive or not far away from this status….

The zoos made the mistake to spend many millions of dollars on facilities that were already outdated at opening in 2006/2007 - I saw Taronga‘s habitat in 2006 shortly before it openend and I was shocked how small it was even back then. Both Taronga and Melbourne were at capacity with the newly imported elephants after just a few calves had been born. This was foreseeable and a mayor lack of planning.

I am still not too optimistic of the future unless both breeding groups are allowed more natural birth intervals and more calves (therefore also more female calves) in general. The outlook for Dubbo is not very good at the Moment unless they start breeding more aggressivly.

And more space for bulls is so needed. Melbourne should really keep their now-empty facilities for a bull group!!! They could easily accommodate a bachelor group of 3 without any modifications necessary!!‘

 

[Zorro]

The population of Asian elephants in Australia is not yet self-sustaining: 7 females were imported and almost 20 years later, only 4 surviving female offspring have been born. And serveral of the 7 original females are already non-reproductive or not far away from this status….

The zoos made the mistake to spend many millions of dollars on facilities that were already outdated at opening in 2006/2007 - I saw Taronga‘s habitat in 2006 shortly before it openend and I was shocked how small it was even back then. Both Taronga and Melbourne were at capacity with the newly imported elephants after just a few calves had been born. This was foreseeable and a mayor lack of planning.

I am still not too optimistic of the future unless both breeding groups are allowed more natural birth intervals and more calves (therefore also more female calves) in general. The outlook for Dubbo is not very good at the Moment unless they start breeding more aggressivly.

And more space for bulls is so needed. Melbourne should really keep their now-empty facilities for a bull group!!! They could easily accommodate a bachelor group of 3 without any modifications necessary!!‘

You have got it all in one I stated on this forum before the Thai import went ahead it was going to be a mistake sending them to the two city zoos my understanding is that the Director at the time wanted the herd at Taronga to boost public visitation and after spending muti millions on the new exhibit only to years later when over crowded to send them to Dubbos open range zoo where the former African elephant exhibit/complex is not suitable for breeding the cows they now have!

 

[Zoofan15]

You have got it all in one I stated on this forum before the Thai import went ahead it was going to be a mistake sending them to the two city zoos my understanding is that the Director at the time wanted the herd at Taronga to boost public visitation and after spending muti millions on the new exhibit only to years later when over crowded to send them to Dubbos open range zoo where the former African elephant exhibit/complex is not suitable for breeding the cows they now have!

Sending the elephants to the city zoos was the first mistake; though I acknowledge that we have benefit of hindsight and the biggest flaw (a disregard for the lack of space to manage breeding) can be at partly excused by the fact there’d never been an elephant birth in Australia at that point. Previous attempts to breed the species across multiple zoos came to nothing; and so while they had the foundations for success with multiple reproductive aged cows, I have no doubt it took the zoos by surprise at how protective they were.

The second mistake, for which there are no excuses, is the failure to build a bigger barn at Dubbo. Ahead of the transfer of the 3.2 from Taronga, a new barn was built, but combined with the pre-existing barns, has failed to manage expansion of the herd beyond a handful of births that now have it at capacity.

 

[Abbey]

As far as I'm aware, the differences of opinion amongst those who work with the region's elephants (in terms of keeping and management) seem to surround how conservative the powers that be should be in terms of issuing breeding recommendations. As has been mentioned many times, the hope in extending breeding intervals (and retiring cows from breeding) is that most of the calves born will live, and there is a 'risk' of a large number of bull calves which will need to be homed throughout their lives, whether in Australia or overseas.

The gamble in the other direction is that, if herds suffer from EEHV or deaths due to other causes, there is a lack of sustainability or representation of particular founders within the region's herds.

You can't really know the outcome until after it's happened. I would generally support breeding more elephants, or at least attempting to, although I see why that might actually be at odds with the ethos of modern zoos in terms of wanting to give their elephants plenty of space and not knowing what to do with surplus bull calves (noting the example of Dubbo as mentioned above).