North American Asian and African Elephant Populations 2025: Discussion and Speculation

Kifaru Bwana said:
Trong Nhi already has had a calf (F Nhi Linh) in 2013. Both are the recent additions to the Washington NZP ("breeding") group.
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Thanks, I’m aware of that.

My point is, surely the concern of large birth intervals in elephants (e.g. 10 years plus) concern cows that are over the age of 22-24 years e.g. a cow in their late 20’s onwards.

The rationale being that if a nulliparous cow can be expected to conceive up until the age of 22-24 years (when viability becomes a concern); then surely it’s neither here nor there whether a cow of the same age (in Trong Nhi’s case, 22 years) had a calf at any stage (in Trong Nhi’s case 12 years ago). I mean a cow could theoretically have a calf as young as six years, which would put her at 16 years since her last if is she reached 22 years without having another.

If anything having a calf within that timeframe should be an advantage as 22 months gestation, plus 10 months or so of non-cycling would be time the cow isn’t subject to ovulation scarring.
 
Question for those who know way more about elephants in zoos than me:

I recently went to the Indianapolis Zoo, and I got to see their male calf, Jabari. (Very cute, by the way.) I was wondering a few things about him. When he’s grown, do you suppose he’ll stay at the Indy Zoo? Would it be feasible to keep him with Kodar still at the zoo? (And for that matter I know it’s already been discussed whether Kodar will stay at Indy indefinitely). I also know there’s been some debate about the value of current bulls in North America genetically. Any opinions on Jabari’s potential breeding value (obviously talking way in the future here)?


I know that’s a lot lol. I’m just curious. If anyone is willing to answer I’d appreciate it!
 
Jabari is immensely valuable! He is his mother's current only calf, his maternal grandparents are underutilized founders (Ali and Ivory), and his father is a wildborn bull with only two offspring thus far. He has a half sister in Toledo around his age, and a maternal uncle that likely will be breeding soon but that's really about it currently.

I would be shocked if he stayed at Indy once being seperated from Zahara. If Kedar is still there by that point or if they bring in an actual breeding bull, I don't believe they'd have the space. They already don't group all their cows together, so their yards are rotated between groupings fairly often as it is. The exhibit is on the smaller side as well. Short of an expansion, I can't see him staying there in a bachelor scenario.
 
It would appear that Luna was the female to miscarry, in a recent social media post she shows no mammary gland development. Unfortunate this happened, but not to be unexpected, though on the bright side this confirms that Kianga is indeed still pregnant, and hopefully Luna will be able to fall pregnant soon.
The Wildlife Report on Instagram: "This baby elephant wandered off on its own, but when the group noticed, its aunt quickly made sure to let it know! camilleolaz on TikTok #BabyElephant #ElephantLove #WildlifeMoments #GentleGiants #WildlifeDaily #AnimalPlanet #ElephantCalf #WildlifeUnfiltered #NatureLovers"
 
Mr.Ivory said:
It would appear that Luna was the female to miscarry, in a recent social media post she shows no mammary gland development. Unfortunate this happened, but not to be unexpected, though on the bright side this confirms that Kianga is indeed still pregnant, and hopefully Luna will be able to fall pregnant soon.
The Wildlife Report on Instagram: "This baby elephant wandered off on its own, but when the group noticed, its aunt quickly made sure to let it know! camilleolaz on TikTok #BabyElephant #ElephantLove #WildlifeMoments #GentleGiants #WildlifeDaily #AnimalPlanet #ElephantCalf #WildlifeUnfiltered #NatureLovers"
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That post appears to be AI?
 
If that is indeed Luna, and the concern is about mammary glands, I should note that sometimes the mammary glands do not always develop in the same way. She may not develop them until the birth is imminent. I would not worry about it until its past the window (we are still in 2025) then we can assume she did have a stillborn or the pregnancy did not happen full term.
 
ZCChip said:
If that is indeed Luna, and the concern is about mammary glands, I should note that sometimes the mammary glands do not always develop in the same way. She may not develop them until the birth is imminent. I would not worry about it until its past the window (we are still in 2025) then we can assume she did have a stillborn or the pregnancy did not happen full term.
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One of the Disney cows is confirmed to have miscarried. I believe it was already discussed that Kianga's pregnancy received an update after the miscarriage announcement so it was determined that she was the cow still pregnant. However, I cannot for the life of me find a source for that so take that with a grain of salt.

All things considered though, keep in mind that Luna's pregnancy was announced in early February 2024. Assuming she was pregnant for ~3 months at that point (usual amount of time it takes to determine pregnancy in elephants) that would put her due date between now and sometime October at the latest. Given that we are rapidly approaching that window and not only is she not displaying mammary development but is still moving quite quickly and dynamically at would be a nearly full term pregnancy, I'd say it's extremely unlikely she is still pregnant.
 
Frankie_number_1_fan said:
One of the Disney cows is confirmed to have miscarried. I believe it was already discussed that Kianga's pregnancy received an update after the miscarriage announcement so it was determined that she was the cow still pregnant. However, I cannot for the life of me find a source for that so take that with a grain of salt.
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I seem to remember the same.
Frankie_number_1_fan said:
All things considered though, keep in mind that Luna's pregnancy was announced in early February 2024. Assuming she was pregnant for ~3 months at that point (usual amount of time it takes to determine pregnancy in elephants) that would put her due date between now and sometime October at the latest. Given that we are rapidly approaching that window and not only is she not displaying mammary development but is still moving quite quickly and dynamically at would be a nearly full term pregnancy, I'd say it's extremely unlikely she is still pregnant.
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I do agree, at very earliest pregnancies can be identified at two months via ultrasound (but that's not always the case). So if we're taking that into consideration, and the news came out immediately, that would mean the latest Luna would be due would this October. The fact she has no visible mammary gland development; which is usual for cows that would be that far into pregnancy, I think you have your answer.

Both her and Kianga were supposed to deliver calves this year. However Kianga should be on a very similar timeline (her pregnancy was also announced around that same time). It would be interesting to see any photos of Kianga at this point in time, who's also supposedly due any week now.
 
Jambo said:
If I'm not mistaken, Raja's move to Columbus has been pushed back to earlier next year, so Samudra likely won't be transferred across until a little later than that. Maliha's turning 20 next year so it's vital she conceives now rather than later.
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I saw this posted about Rajas move to Columbus being delayed but I’ve yet to find anything to show this has been confirmed or not. To be honest and maybe this is just me, I am a little confused about why Columbus would have 2 bulls in this case. I don’t mean to sound ignorant when I say this, cause I understand why in the case of multigenerational herds like Oklahoma City Zoo when they had Rex breeding with Asha and Rex’s daughters breeding with Bowie for example when Rex was alive to Thailand breeding with Tess and Shanti while Chuck breeds with Thailands daughters at the Houston Zoo. I guess for me I don’t really understand the rationale behind this decision why Columbus would have two bulls currently? I’m not saying this out of judgement, I’m saying I don’t understand and would like to understand better, why Columbus would need 2 bulls currently.

Regarding Asha’s pregnancy, is there anyway to know for sure that she is or isn’t one of the yet to be announced pregnancies @E Maximus had talked about earlier this year?
 
John Marchwick said:
I saw this posted about Rajas move to Columbus being delayed but I’ve yet to find anything to show this has been confirmed or not. To be honest and maybe this is just me, I am a little confused about why Columbus would have 2 bulls in this case. I don’t mean to sound ignorant when I say this, cause I understand why in the case of multigenerational herds like Oklahoma City Zoo when they had Rex breeding with Asha and Rex’s daughters breeding with Bowie for example when Rex was alive to Thailand breeding with Tess and Shanti while Chuck breeds with Thailands daughters at the Houston Zoo. I guess for me I don’t really understand the rationale behind this decision why Columbus would have two bulls currently? I’m not saying this out of judgement, I’m saying I don’t understand and would like to understand better, why Columbus would need 2 bulls currently.

Regarding Asha’s pregnancy, is there anyway to know for sure that she is or isn’t one of the yet to be announced pregnancies @E Maximus had talked about earlier this year?
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Columbus have the space to hold two bulls, so I think it's a move of why not in the meantime. Long term they similarly have the benefits of OKC's herd, ie. with Raja being able to breed with Johnson's daughters and vice versa.

Asha would have conceived circa November 2024, so at the time of the posting, she would have been around two months pregnant maximum. Considering pregnancy can be detected around two months earliest, it's possible, but unlikely.
 
John Marchwick said:
I saw this posted about Rajas move to Columbus being delayed but I’ve yet to find anything to show this has been confirmed or not. To be honest and maybe this is just me, I am a little confused about why Columbus would have 2 bulls in this case. I don’t mean to sound ignorant when I say this, cause I understand why in the case of multigenerational herds like Oklahoma City Zoo when they had Rex breeding with Asha and Rex’s daughters breeding with Bowie for example when Rex was alive to Thailand breeding with Tess and Shanti while Chuck breeds with Thailands daughters at the Houston Zoo. I guess for me I don’t really understand the rationale behind this decision why Columbus would have two bulls currently? I’m not saying this out of judgement, I’m saying I don’t understand and would like to understand better, why Columbus would need 2 bulls currently.

Regarding Asha’s pregnancy, is there anyway to know for sure that she is or isn’t one of the yet to be announced pregnancies @E Maximus had talked about earlier this year?
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There are likely multuple factors at play here.

Primarily, Columbus needs female calves and steady breeding. I doubt it is by coincidence that both their new bulls have a fabulous track record of siring daughters. It's no secret that Columbus' breeding history has been a little slow-going. They've been breeding since 1999 and have had very little to show for it, not entirely their fault of course, but it is a touch concerning from a longevity standpoint that (until Rita Jean) none of their females had matrilineal lines of their own. Having two bulls gives the girls an increased chance of not only producing more calves in a shorter amount of time, but also increases the chances of them having those vital female calves. I think a pivotal decision in having both males also likely revolved around Rudy to a degree, and getting her with another proven male ASAP post Sabu's departure. Unfortunately she and Johnson failed to hit it off so that part looks like it will remain unfulfilled.

Should they choose, two unrelated bulls would also allow for them to remain relatively self-sufficient for well over a decade, with each being able to breed with the others' daughters. I personally hope this isn't the case (and if either continues to produce a reliably female line at that), and that at least one of the bulls will be sent elsewhere somewhere down the line to keep fresh genes in Columbus.

Johnson also just flat out needed out of ALS and Raja needed out of St Louis, Columbus has the room and a need for steady breeding. Win-win for all facilities.
 
Mr.Ivory said:
Although this is very speculative, but just by looks I'm of the belief that Jayei, Kiki, Claire are sisters, or at least very close relatives, and Omma and the late Warren being siblings, though this has no basis, and with no released info regarding familial relationships it's hard to 100% confirm.
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(Just bumping this here)

To be fair to the zoos, it isn't of huge consequence if any of the cows are half siblings, some form of first cousin (full or not), or something similar considering that a relatively low percentage of DNA would actually be shared. In a generation or two, inbreeding between them will have little consequence. I'm sure the zoos have been diligent in trying to pair the least related animals with each other (Titan with the Sedgwick girls minus his mother for instance).

It is extremely interesting to note the physical similarities between some of the cows though. Has any information been released regarding if the imported groups (Omaha's original 1.5 and Sedgwick's 1.5) were found together in Africa? It should be fairly easy to deduce that they were more than likely related by some common grandmother-greatgrandmother if so.
 
ZCChip said:
Does anyone know if ALS has been able to get a new bull yet? Supposedly from Europe.
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The only thing I have been able to find that is even remotely public information is that an employee said last year that they hoped to aquire a European bull.

ALS is notorious for sharing little about their elephants outside of births (and usually several months later at that), so if a new bull is there then the departing facility would likely be the one to announce it. There is the possibility that they are waiting to import, especially since they have a nearly 8-year-old bull that likely will need seperated if he hasn't been already. It may be a priority to export him before a new bull is brought in.

Also to keep in mind, it was mentioned on here that ALS has "controversial" plans for their elephants, so that may be a factor here; though it's anyone's guess as to what those plans may be.
 
Now that Columbus just had a new male calf on the ground, does anyone think that maybe in about 5-10 years once he is of age of separation and Rita has grown up a bit, would it a good idea to move Frankie WITH Sunny and Rita Jean to another zoo if he gets a breeding recommendation at another facility that has capacity for a few more cows, as they are unrelated and can certainly breed? Of course it is probably not a good idea if Sunny has another calf with Johnson or Raja, but if she doesn't have more calves by then, I personally feel it may not be a bad idea for a herd split/replacement a few years down the road and for Frankie to breed with the pair.
 
Nile Hippo Expert said:
Now that Columbus just had a new male calf on the ground, does anyone think that maybe in about 5-10 years once he is of age of separation and Rita has grown up a bit, would it a good idea to move Frankie WITH Sunny and Rita Jean to another zoo if he gets a breeding recommendation at another facility that has capacity for a few more cows, as they are unrelated and can certainly breed? Of course it is probably not a good idea if Sunny has another calf with Johnson or Raja, but if she doesn't have more calves by then, I personally feel it may not be a bad idea for a herd split/replacement a few years down the road and for Frankie to breed with the pair.
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I don't think that would be required honestly. Columbus has a heap of space to continue to breed, and there's no reason to split up their female herd when they get along amicably at the present.

Furthermore, Columbus has only just began to build up their matriarchal herd, and with Phoebe's age, the growth of the herd will really rely on Sunny (and eventually Rita) building up herd numbers.

Also on Frankie, I feel like he'll remain at the zoo for quite a while - he'll have a valuable role in mentoring and being a companion for his younger brother once he matures.
 
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