British People, Passports, and Brexit

[lintworm]

The figures are pretty simple - in 2017 Britain contributed £13 billion to the EU budget (the third largest contributing country) - in 2017 Britain received £4 billion back from the EU = a net loss to the UK of £9 billion.

In such a narrow view you indeed lose and is this 4 billion received back the rebate + EU subsidies? The EU is however by far the largest trading partner of the UK and the potential damage done there far outweighs this 9 billion gain and cannot be compensated for by trading more with the US or Brazil, if only because of geography.... What seems to be happening is that Britain still wants a good relationship with Europe, which is indeed beneficial to both, but they seem to have forgotten they can't really influence EU policy once they are outside.

Clearly the EU has twice as much to loose as the UK does.
Without its third largest contributor, the EU in its current form is financially unsustainable. As it appears to be too bureaucratic and self-important to reform, implosion is inevitable.

Do you think the EU is incapable of performing a roughly 5% budget cut, that is a pretty grim view indeed. If Brexit has united a people, it is the Europeans in the fact that they will let the British feel the real costs. I have hardly ever seen such a united EU as in the Brexit negotiations.

 

[Jana]

@Terry Thomas
A lot of people voted to leave because of the free movement problem, which brought health tourism, benefit advantages etc, which drained our resources, ...

It is somehow strange feeling to hear about oneself to be "free movement problem" and a drain on your resources and health. If any Czech immigrant has taken advantage of your country I am sorry.

I want to chip in info that should make Brum and other Leave voters happy. The company I work for (we invent machines on request of R&D departments of car/train/airplane manufacturers and universities) where I also handle HR has just hired 2 people this year who freshly left the UK and returned home. We also receive CVs from Hungarians/Romanians/Slovaks who live behind the Channel and are trying to leave and react to my ads for a job in Prague (mechanical engineers, Java/C++ developers, electricians etc.). Exodus of undesirable people from the UK is in full swing. And I am helping you with it.

 

[Buldeo]

Exodus of undesirable people from the UK is in full swing. And I am helping you with it.

I don't want to spend a lot of time on this, not being British and all, but the fantasy that there is a never ending upside to immigration is just that, a fantasy. While the UK's economic model demands steady immigration, there are intangibles at play. If those intangibles aren't met, then the odds of drawing on public resources before you put into the system are high.

 

[Andrew Swales]

It is somehow strange feeling to hear about oneself to be "free movement problem" and a drain on your resources and health. If any Czech immigrant has taken advantage of your country I am sorry.

I want to chip in info that should make Brum and other Leave voters happy. The company I work for (we invent machines on request of R&D departments of car/train/airplane manufacturers and universities) where I also handle HR has just hired 2 people this year who freshly left the UK and returned home. We also receive CVs from Hungarians/Romanians/Slovaks who live behind the Channel and are trying to leave and react to my ads for a job in Prague (mechanical engineers, Java/C++ developers, electricians etc.). Exodus of undesirable people from the UK is in full swing. And I am helping you with it.

This is the core problem with referendums - decisions taken by a largely uninformed public, based on partial information (if any!) fed to them by a biased and ignorant tabloid press, and nowadays social media hype. Holding multiple, repeated referendums until you have the answer you 'need', wont change that. The alternative is to leave the decisions in the hands of the democratically elected politicians. The UK's electoral system is as robust as that of any country, but given the outcome does not result in the right individuals coming through to the top. Maybe the problem is that informed, experienced and competent people just dont want to be politicians....

 

[gentle lemur]

I don't want to spend a lot of time on this, not being British and all, but the fantasy that there is a never ending upside to immigration is just that, a fantasy. While the UK's economic model demands steady immigration, there are intangibles at play. If those intangibles aren't met, then the odds of drawing on public resources before you put into the system are high.

That is just setting up a straw man to destroy it.
I don't think that anyone believes that there is a 'never ending upside to immigration' and I certainly don't think that any politician would ever say so. In other words it is your own personal fantasy that such a position exists.
The balance between advantages and disadvantages can be argued, but such a gross caricature of an opinion you don't share debases political debate and discredits your own position.

 

[Andrew Swales]

In such a narrow view you indeed lose and is this 4 billion received back the rebate + EU subsidies? The EU is however by far the largest trading partner of the UK and the potential damage done there far outweighs this 9 billion gain and cannot be compensated for by trading more with the US or Brazil, if only because of geography.... What seems to be happening is that Britain still wants a good relationship with Europe, which is indeed beneficial to both, but they seem to have forgotten they can't really influence EU policy once they are outside.



Do you think the EU is incapable of performing a roughly 5% budget cut, that is a pretty grim view indeed. If Brexit has united a people, it is the Europeans in the fact that they will let the British feel the real costs. I have hardly ever seen such a united EU as in the Brexit negotiations.

That unity is likely to be very short lived, as all the core problems within the EU which were very public before the referendum, and almost resulted in France and The Netherlands following the UK lead - are still there and worsening. The EU is certainly currently taking full advantage of the media smoke-screen Brexit has caused, to divert attention from its real problems - but they have not gone away....

 

[Andrew Swales]

... If Brexit has united a people, it is the Europeans in the fact that they will let the British feel the real costs. I have hardly ever seen such a united EU as in the Brexit negotiations.[/QUOTE]

There is definitely EU unity and determination to 'punish' Britain for making a democratic decision, however uninformed it's electorate or ill-judged the referendum was in the first place...

 

[Kifaru Bwana]

Sorry to intervene as an European and EU Dutch citizen, I beg to differ.

Right from word go, It seemed a significant voter bloc wished for a NO without having even the slightest notion what the EU really stands and how the campaign was conducted pretending UK's ills were EU exports (and not domestic politics) and all the misinformation expunged by LEAVE and the other lot that probably did not believe so and were silent Remainders did not even care to exercise the vote led to a disastrous Referendum result at 52-48. What ensues is first and foremost how this will pan out is first and foremost in your hands.

Now really, the EU is not punishing the UK for leaving, the rules on leaving the Union have been quite clear from the start and have been negotiated and agreed upon by all, including the then UK Govt. long time ago. The playing field was thus to negotiate a deal agreeable to all. Now as the EU stands by some basic socio-economic and political baseline principles it is a clear and level playing field if one wants to disentangle oneself as an independent nation away from this organization means financial bliss and losses for both parties. Now, the price tag on leaving the Union is no more the pros and benefits for being part of that economic socio-political union. To think it would not have any negative implications nor undesirable side-effects is a typical La-La-Land Assumption.

What has been happening over the last few years (BEFORE and) since the ill-fated Referendum Brexit/Leave is that your political representatives and diplomats have made a complete shambles with a successful NO-campaign and to now have to negotiate some Deal. It was clear from the start that a Deal would be without having the benefits of being part of that E-Union and at some economic cost and a Farewell price tag to buy off legal and financial obligations.

It is thus a little far-fetched to accuse the competition of being a party pooper and not playing to the tune of the UK Govt.

I am personally really dismayed and sorry about the current state of affairs and how this will work out in the UK for all my friends over the Channel. I wish you all good wits and good luck and some wisdom to overcome the ex EU challenges for you all and the UK as a nation.

PS: Being one of UK's principal trading partners we as Dutch will also suffer substantially in an economic downturn and equally will suffer considerable financial losses following the UK's exit from the EU.

 

[Andrew Swales]

In such a narrow view you indeed lose and is this 4 billion received back the rebate + EU subsidies? The EU is however by far the largest trading partner of the UK and the potential damage done there far outweighs this 9 billion gain and cannot be compensated for by trading more with the US or Brazil, if only because of geography.... What seems to be happening is that Britain still wants a good relationship with Europe, which is indeed beneficial to both, but they seem to have forgotten they can't really influence EU policy once they are outside.

Breaks in trading partnerships have impacts on both parties, not just one side. This is in quite separate from the 9 billion 'gain' which of course is not actually a 'gain' at all, as it was/is British money in the first place! It is a lot less of a loss. Current trade with the rest of the world is currently totally distorted by EU imposed tariffs on goods imported into the EU, imposed generally to protect (largely German) industry.

The continued entrenched and arrogant refusal by the EU to even consider the UK's position and solutions, risks a very simplistic solution by a future UK Government. The easiest question to be posed in another referendum to an ill-informed electorate, via the media, would be - Do you want (a) to change your mind and stay in Europe, with all its inherent problems and risk their punishment for daring to vote wrongly and question the status-quo? - or (b) do you want to stop talking to them, kick out all the foreigners now, close the borders with the European mainland and Eire, and pay the EU nothing? This potential referendum question could produce another 'wrong' answer.

As an island nation Britain, has used and defended the 'draw-bridge' approach for many centuries. If arrogant politicians push too hard and corner the electorate, the results can be unpredictable, as both Mr Cameron and America's ruling class found out last time they asked the public.

 

[Andrew Swales]

Sorry to intervene as an European and EU Dutch citizen, I beg to differ.

Right from word go, It seemed a significant voter bloc wished for a NO without having even the slightest notion what the EU really stands and how the campaign was conducted pretending UK's ills were EU exports (and not domestic politics) and all the misinformation expunged by LEAVE and the other lot that probably did not believe so and were silent Remainders did not even care to exercise the vote led to a disastrous Referendum result at 52-48. What ensues is first and foremost how this will pan out is first and foremost in your hands.

Now really, the EU is not punishing the UK for leaving, the rules on leaving the Union have been quite clear from the start and have been negotiated and agreed upon by all, including the then UK Govt. long time ago. The playing field was thus to negotiate a deal agreeable to all. Now as the EU stands by some basic socio-economic and political baseline principles it is a clear and level playing field if one wants to disentangle oneself as an independent nation away from this organization means financial bliss and losses for both parties. Now, the price tag on leaving the Union is no more the pros and benefits for being part of that economic socio-political union. To think it would not have any negative implications nor undesirable side-effects is a typical La-La-Land Assumption.

What has been happening over the last few years (BEFORE and) since the ill-fated Referendum Brexit/Leave is that your political representatives and diplomats have made a complete shambles with a successful NO-campaign and to now have to negotiate some Deal. It was clear from the start that a Deal would be without having the benefits of being part of that E-Union and at some economic cost and a Farewell price tag to buy off legal and financial obligations.

It is thus a little far-fetched to accuse the competition of being a party pooper and not playing to the tune of the UK Govt.

I am personally really dismayed and sorry about the current state of affairs and how this will work out in the UK for all my friends over the Channel. I wish you all good wits and good luck and some wisdom to overcome the ex EU challenges for you all and the UK as a nation.

PS: Being one of UK's principal trading partners we as Dutch will also suffer substantially in an economic downturn and equally will suffer considerable financial losses following the UK's exit from the EU.

I personally agree with very much (most indeed) of what you say, and have identical fears and concerns, and similar friendships and relationships with colleagues on the 'mainland' developed over many, many years.

The problem is that WE are not making the decisions. The politicians on both sides have lost the trust and respect of their public - who in the UK at least, (and indeed the USA too) were arrogantly expected to support them again. When in the UK the electorate didn't do that, arrogance meant that the politicians had no plan 'B', and hadn't even considered they might need one.

 

[Pootle]

Personally as a patriotic Brit, I am, looking forwards to leaving and I voted to do just that too. I think The EU has held the UK back for too many years and we can now without restraint start more active trading with nations outside of Europe on our terms of business. Its time to embrace the change and crack on with the future. Surely if we (UK) want to buy Spanish tomato’s and the price is right for both sides to trades, we will still get Spanish tomato’s? Is our money all of a sudden no good? Of course not its still money and it still talks the same language as other money. Right or wrong?

Politicians on both sides are little more than string puppets being orchestrated by those financial heavyweights who drive economic issues; not just in Europe but Worldwide.

 

[CGSwans]

Personally as a patriotic Brit, I am, looking forwards to leaving and I voted to do just that too. I think The EU has held the UK back for too many years and we can now without restraint start more active trading with nations outside of Europe on our terms of business.

Except this will take a long time, and it won't be on your terms. As a small market jostling with far bigger ones, you'll be a deal-taker, not a deal-maker. Free trade agreements typically take a decade to sort out, and so far you haven't even started. An 18 year old school leaver will be rising 30, at best, before they have an opportunity to find a job created by a free trade agreement with the US or China. Right now, today, they can go and work in Germany or Finland or France or wherever they can find a job within a free market that already exists, not one that might hypothetically exist in future.

Its time to embrace the change and crack on with the future.

Boris, is that you?

Surely if we (UK) want to buy Spanish tomato’s and the price is right for both sides to trades, we will still get Spanish tomato’s? Is our money all of a sudden no good? Of course not its still money and it still talks the same language as other money. Right or wrong?

Yes, it's still money but no, it doesn't speak the same language. Your Spanish tomatoes will attract import duties that they don't currently attract. Your Spanish tomatoes require food health certificates that they currently have under EU law, but won't have after Brexit until the House of Commons gets around to passing new ones. Your lovely, fresh Spanish tomatoes can currently get to you one or two days faster than they will when they are stuck at the border, waiting for thousands of other containers to go through Customs.

Oh, and yes, your money will still be good but it will be not quite as good as it is now, because your currency is going to fall right off the White Cliffs of Dover.

Politicians on both sides are little more than string puppets being orchestrated by those financial heavyweights who drive economic issues; not just in Europe but Worldwide.

Ah. Bad news I'm afraid. I don't know where you buy the aluminium foil for your caps but I hope it's not Tesco. Theirs is made in Poland. Sainsbury's get theirs from China, so maybe it'll be cheaper in a decade or so.

 

[Andrew Swales]

Yes, it's still money but no, it doesn't speak the same language. Your Spanish tomatoes will attract import duties that they don't currently attract.

Oh, and yes, your money will still be good but it will be not quite as good as it is now, because your currency is going to fall right off the White Cliffs of Dover.

Ah. Bad news I'm afraid. I don't know where you buy the aluminium foil for your caps but I hope it's not Tesco. Theirs is made in Poland. Sainsbury's get theirs from China, so maybe it'll be cheaper in a decade or so.

Just before the referendum we were getting an exchange rate of 1.42 euros to the UK£ - because the speculative money markets were terrified of the situation inside the EU, politically and economically, and looking to invest elsewhere. Nothing has changed, except the Brexit smoke-screen temporarily eclipsing attention. Currency values are set by speculation, just as are those of steel or gold or grain - moving money around quickly to make a quick buck - and will flip back just as quickly.

We currently already have to pay huge import duties - we know, having imported from the USA, India, Australia, Peru and New Zealand recently, duties are set centrally by the EU without member countries having any control - even if it doesn't ban the product altogether to protect 'home markets', usually German and French ones. Just buy something off eBay, and see for yourself.

 

[CGSwans]

Just before the referendum we were getting an exchange rate of 1.42 euros to the UK£ - because the speculative money markets were terrified of the situation inside the EU, politically and economically, and looking to invest elsewhere. Nothing has changed, except the Brexit smoke-screen temporarily eclipsing attention. Currency values are set by speculation, just as are those of steel or gold or grain - moving money around quickly to make a quick buck - and will flip back just as quickly.

And yet, mysteriously, that temporary speculation has had the pound consistently lower than before the vote for the last two years. When is the flip back going to happen? It’s taking its time.

Your comment is profoundly economically illiterate, to the point that I wonder if you were an organiser for the leave campaign.

We currently already have to pay huge import duties - we know, having imported from the USA, India, Australia, Peru and New Zealand recently, duties are set centrally by the EU without member countries having any control - even if it doesn't ban the product altogether to protect 'home markets', usually German and French ones. Just buy something off eBay, and see for yourself.

You are not paying any import duties on your roughly 45% of total trade that is currently with the EU, and as things stand you will be come March. More importantly, though, you will start paying *export* duties to those same trading partners, and that’s what will cost you your job. You’ll be paying more for Spanish tomatoes, and receiving less for your own produce.

You are living in a dream land, which is all well and good until you wake up.

 

[Pootle]

@ CGSwans regarding much, possibly all the above....
Firstly, Hi and thanks for the response.
A response put together with some knowledge, but all hypothesis and no experience. You appear to look at everything from the wrong negative, suppressed, possibly scared to venture out of your comfort zone…? You are afraid of change?.. maybe?.

I also have to poopoo your (again negative) response about my Spanish tomato importing example. If the UK want to buy Spanish tomatoes and get them in fresh on our terms of business, there is no need whatsoever to pussyfoot about like you appear to believe we would, ‘you look for a problem and you will find it, you look for a solution and you will find it’ (Ian Thomas 2018). We get great fruit and veg outside the EU and would have better produce if not for European rule. A few years ago the EU dictated how bendy our bananas could be !!! no **** I kid you not!!. As a modern upright British person I don’t care if mine are bent or straight, if it’s a good banana I am not prejudice against it. In addition to bananas there was the vacuum cleaner scandal, how much suction can a vacuum cleaner have, the EU then limited my carpet cleaning activities? However this is not the site, the place nor the correct time to discuss suction.

As for comments on youngsters leaving education and getting settled in a working environment, free trade agreements and the rest… by jingo you’re a negative chap aren’t you,? (realistic I hear you retort in response). However, if two business parties want something, they meet up, have a meal, entertain each other, smiles and fake smiles (honest it’s the real world) they agree, they ‘give and take’ and then agree on middle ground to suit both – and bingo, trade deal done. The problem now with the EU is that there are more than ten different leaders or clowns ‘on strings’ to satisfy, its nigh on impossible and its this kind of gobbledygook buffoonery that takes 10 years or more to sort out. It doesn’t take 10 years for two countries wanting to trade quickly with each other to sort a deal out! Get with it, pull your finger out, be positive and stop looking for every negative angle you can find. I don’t like to poke a sharp stick, so I will put a rubber ball on the end before I poke it at you, but nevertheless poke I will. Here is my poke (brace yourself)…Its people like you who try to find a way to stop something happening rather than try to find a way to make it happen, terrified of any confrontation with others about change for the better, without knowing you become suppressed, smothered and kept under the control of the easy boring negative life, you then in time believe it’s the right way to live and behave. You are manipulated, almost controlled into conditioned thinking…. I draw my stick back. (have a think).

FOIL : Google told me Tesco foil comes from China not Poland, I’m not saying Google is right or wrong, but I had a look and that’s what it told me. However I don’t like or shop at Tesco, I don’t like what they do or how they do it at all to be truthful, but that’s another issue for another time.

Finally, (my fav bit, so I have saved to last) – Is that you Boris?...No, I’m more Melchett myself.

 

[CGSwans]

Good grief.

 

[sooty mangabey]

One of the major problems of the whole Brexit debate in the UK has been its divisive nature, with those on each side reacting with fury to the opinions of others. It has thus become something that, for many, is to be avoided as a topic of conversation - why allow oneself to feel riled by (or to rile) those with whom one fundamentally disagrees, when there is no real prospect of changing minds? On the whole, the discussion here (on ZC) has been fairly civil, so I make the following comment rather tentatively, but....

We get great fruit and veg outside the EU and would have better produce if not for European rule. A few years ago the EU dictated how bendy our bananas could be !!! no **** I kid you not!!. As a modern upright British person I don’t care if mine are bent or straight, if it’s a good banana I am not prejudice against it.

There are some with whom I disagree whose views I can respect; there are others who I cannot (on a national level, Boris Johnson is possibly, one of the most appalling human beings currently living; Rees-Mogg is simply mad; Farage is... well, Farage). But when people start quoting 'bendy bananas' then, really, I despair. To be clear, the idea that any sort of banana (or other fruit or vegetable) was ever going to be banned is, simply, a nonsense, put forward by the British press either because they didn't understand that about which they were writing (and anyone who looks at what, for example, the press writes about zoos should be aware that very, very often they don't have much of a clue about what they're discussing....) or because they deliberately wanted to discredit the work of the EU. There are arguments in favour of the UK leaving the EU; this, most definitely, is not one of them. Its continued propagation simply discredits those who turn to it.

And this is not even to wander towards the discussion of whether we should be seeking to encourage imports of fruit and vegetables from further afield, with all the attendant issues that such consumption brings. Hopefully, anyone who has an interest in zoos also has an interest in conservation and the environment, and, as such, would be reluctant to see even more imports being flown into the UK from Peru, Israel or Kenya...

 

[Ned]

The subject of imports is a tricky one, on the one hand it is indeed better from an environmental point of view to import from the EU but doesn't this condemn African nations to eternal poverty?

 

[Andrew Swales]

And yet, mysteriously, that temporary speculation has had the pound consistently lower than before the vote for the last two years. When is the flip back going to happen? It’s taking its time.

Your comment is profoundly economically illiterate, to the point that I wonder if you were an organiser for the leave campaign.



You are not paying any import duties on your roughly 45% of total trade that is currently with the EU, and as things stand you will be come March. More importantly, though, you will start paying *export* duties to those same trading partners, and that’s what will cost you your job. You’ll be paying more for Spanish tomatoes, and receiving less for your own produce.

You are living in a dream land, which is all well and good until you wake up.

Resorting to personally insulting me, has no impact on the facts.

 

[Brum]

I just love political discussions, they're right up there, along with stepping on Lego, as one of my favourite things in the world...

Hopefully, anyone who has an interest in zoos also has an interest in conservation and the environment, and, as such, would be reluctant to see even more imports being flown into the UK from Peru, Israel or Kenya...

I made a couple of posts earlier on Brexit, haven't give much of an opinion one way or the other, but this is something I can agree with. No unnecessary imports from further afield please, let's try and keep things local.