One thing's for sure, we've already seen a considerable phase out with the number geriatric herds in recent year wether or not the facilities are spacious and modern or constricted and antiquated, and whether or not the zoos will continue with or phase out elephants keeping, as with Los Angeles San Diego Smithsonian etc. The only real holders that are fundamental in the long run are breeding and/or bachelor groupings. I have a gut feeling Memphis might switch herd types once their new complex opens (if they send their old cows to TES as it's maybe 3 hours away).
Do you think Memphis could send their elephants to TES? They got three cows a few years ago (around the time TES got Nosey). Why didn't those three go to TES? because those people are saying TES is a breeding ground of TB which is not true of course. The only ones that came with TB is the Hawthorne group, and how it was spread to the other Asian habitat was why Carol Buckely was fired (partially the reason). But it is all under control now with the new board.

